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#1
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new system ideas
It seems that in general those horses carrying the least weight (ignoring apprentice claims) pay more than the top weights. And also the horses that draw the wider barriers pay more than those with the inside barriers. IMO, weights and barrier draws are overrated, but that they still influence many punters bets, so hopefully that translates into some potential value bets.
Could someone with a database run a test for me for both the win and the place? Saturday Metro tracks only. Good and Dead tracks only. Ignore 2yo, maidens and jump races. Only consider those horses carrying the least weight in each race (ignore apprentice claims). Of the remaining horses, only consider the one with the widest barrier.
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...time held me green and dying, though I sang in my chains like the sea. - Dylan Thomas |
#2
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Min. weight horses often come in at good prices. I find that it happens more at mid-week races than Sat. races though. Possibly because Sat. metro horses handle weight rises better than mid-week class.
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#3
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Saturday 22/03/08 Results
BR1 #8 2nd $6.80 BR3 #6 Rhymenoreason UNP BR4 #14 Embracing 3rd $16.80 BR5 #12 Prend UNP BR6 #10 Finder Page 3rd $6.2 BR7 #8 Bold Reason 3rd $4.10 BR8 #19 Whispering Gypsy UNP SR1 #7 Guru 3rd NTD SR2 #11 Little Sai Wan 2nd $4.40 SR4 #5 Mimi Lebrock 3rd $2.00 SR5 #10 Twin Wing UNP SR6 #13 Gamble Me UNP SR7 #9 Guillotine UNP SR8 #13 Lantwin UNP SR9 #10 Grey Stream UNP MR2 #8 Frisco Jess UNP MR3 #8 Able Dragon 1st $29.70/$6.20 MR4 #8 On a Promise UNP MR5 #7 Come FLy With Me 3rd $2.80 MR6 #14 Senorita de Lago UNP MR7 #8 Dance on Air 2nd $2.40 MR8 #12 Hike UNP Win Out: $22.00 In: $29.70 +$7.70 Place Out: $22.00 In: $51.70 +$29.70 With an average dividend of around $5.00 for the place and a healthy place strike rate, it looks like this might have some potential as a place system.
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...time held me green and dying, though I sang in my chains like the sea. - Dylan Thomas |
#4
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I'd be interested how the system pans out mid-week as a comparison.
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#5
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Crash, by my reckoning today's qualifiers are:
Scone R3 no.9 R9 no.13 R10 no.14 Moe R5 no.8 R6 no.8 R7 no.10 R8 no.10 As a matter of interest, I have been betting Duets and also Place using multiple selections (half of the field). Some of the divvies have been quite large especially when the higher TAB numbers happen to place. The largest Place divvy to date has been $17. |
#6
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My idea would be to ignore barriers and only back mid-week horses at min. weight 3rd. or 4th up. good or dead tracks.
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#7
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Quote:
*rule out anything over 50/1 Moe 3/9,12 [9 $1.60p] Scone 3/9 x 5/7 x 7/11 x 8/13,14 [14 $12.20w $2.80p] 10/13 ? |
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