How long does it take to prove a system?
Is it a certain number of meetings or do you need to use a time frame?
Does it need to run a full year or can it be judge on consistency over a shorter term?
Discuss.

Many will dispute this, but a few weeks is all it takes.

Disclaimer:
you have to differentiate when and where you are betting.
Your system may (probably will not) perform the same in Metro races as in country or prov. races.

Forget about the "thousand" races needed to prove etc. if you don't produce profit short term, there is no reason you will be in the long term.
Big bank only means you will lose a lot more but it takes longer!!!

Day to day yes, you can be up and down, but if you are losing all week, barring unforeseen conditions circumstances, then my friend the system is a crock.

Good luck

I think it's a difficult question to answer without knowing the full [or at least more details of your system] eg is it purely form based...or it mathematical...a combination of both...or something else I haven't considered.

My feeling is that anything with a heavy form component really needs a full year to expose you to all elements of racing....large fields, small fields, fresh horses, sour horses, wet tracks, dry tracks, good races, bad races, top jocks, other jocks, big trainers, small trainers etc etc

Mathmatical or statistically based methods...I'd still be saying 3 - 6 months minimum...ideas/systems/plans are all good for profit when you look at the early results but it's the longterm that gradually finds you out.

This can be a tricky question.

I feel one needs a min of 3 lots of 150 races.

This will give us a rough picture if the system has any legs or not.

If one batch produces a profit & the other 2 batches brake approx even , you may have a possible system.

I have invented plans based on 3 years stats & in the 4th year , it fails to show a profit - frustrating stuff.

I feel one should try for a consistant 22%+ SR , next ,try & get the best possible price , usually Betfair.

At the end of the day , its the terrible prices one accepts from the TABs that eventually kills most systems off, while trying to recover past losses.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

The best systems take about an instant to prove what they really are "a dog taking you for a walk to ATM", dismiss them all and move on to start using the brain.

I did write here a while back, you need about $1000 a month to actually " make a living" i have since been corrected, i am told its around 1200. ( in my own defence, i did set this 1K figure 5 - 10 years ago )

THINK. 25% strike rate, 25% pto, betting saturdays. how many bets you need to have? and what kind of a bank? what prices, and what about the run of outs?..just do the math, backward enginer just the logistics...when you figure your safe realistic position, youll be better off in real estate.

Also as said, a system with 10 rules, if the 10 criteria are met, then it has 100% chance. BUT if it start form barrier 11 not 10, or its 22 days off, not 21..then in chance of winning is ZERO.

forget about anything else common sence should click in at some point.

HEY lets go sci-fi, even with tomorrows newspaper, system followers would still lose if the winners didn't fit the sytem rules.

Recently i went to my local club, the week the NSW tab was having probs and i also had some renovations done to the home, as i was recently getting hammered by claims that i only win because i get inside info and , most now know how i make a living, Tak , from sat to sat (excluding wednesday ) i gave out 25 selections, 17 won, 23 placed...a win 1$ returned just over 38$...lowest winner paid 1.30, highest $3.80.

On the folowing Sunday, i found out..in the whole club, basicly only 3 people followed near all the selections, 1 guy whos sits most afternoons and consumes about half doz beers and has no idea..about anything(actually thought of as not being too bright)...the young guy who was running the tab (whos says he usually doesnt bet) and the manager of the club .....not sure of the factual amounts of all..but the manager said he bet $10 on each and finished with a little over a $100 profit. and wished the tab worked on its website every week.
from many others i heard , i was broke by that race, i dont back horses 1st up , they were to short ...etc etc.

Again, some people could not win, even with tomorrows newpaper.
and as Bozo the canabal said, "this clown really does taste funny."

E. O.O ..today; Dr Plumb did it with whip at the racetrack....absol' fantatical.

I'd be more conservative.
I've seen one lot of 1000 selections return a lot different on the next 1000 selections, and these were fairly short prices.
But the biggest faux pas is to say "I need 1000 races"
Then filter down to 200 and be confident of future returns.
I already said "I need 1000 races", and that shouldn't change after filters.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg