Hi everyone, hope the spring racing goes well for all.

I need some advice, not sure where I can find the right answers, but this forum is as good as any.

As I have mention before I have developed over many years my own ratings method. Originally based on the concepts of Rem Plante and Don Scot I have tweaked values to reflect today’s racing, which is vastly different to what they experienced years ago.

My ratings results are very accurate, takes hours to do a single meeting and overall I’m happy with the results. But I still feel I’m missing something… Or more correctly there’s another factor I haven’t accounted for or haven’t put enough emphasis on.

Firstly I rate runners on API, both career and current campaign, I then add ratings based on race ratings and weight and distance for previous runs (in particular the current campaign) and then I review all my ratings results for each race to cast a knowledgeable opinion over the probable winners..

This approach turns some very happy results ranging in price out to 8 and beyond and it is very reliable.

But I can’t help thinking that there’s something more… The next step so to speak.

Any suggestions?

Hi Cairnsman,

My first advice would be to automate the process as much as possible. Hire a programmer if necessary.

Secondly, I'd look at pace and settling position if you haven't already factored that in. Michal and Paul have a service with Ratings2win.

Wishing you great success!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Thanks Schmile,

I have fiddled with these things and found some speed maps helpful, (some are garbage too) but I haven't really delved into pace that much.. I will study Ratings2Win and see what shows up, thanks

There is more.
The handicapper has taken history and in his mind he has evened up the field.
You are taking that same history and trying to prove him wrong. You can only do that with what comes after the handicapping. The draw and what has happened between the last race and this one.

The first is incorporated in most ratings, and is reflected in the PP. and the second is usually reflected in the openers. Furthermore if you take any price range of the fav, you will find even money less the TAB rake. Meaning that Joe Public is on the money.

Thus if you don't use the money, you are on your own.

I agree with you BetOn, you're on the money.. As a programmer I wrote a program to study the results of thousands of races and compared the results with BetFair prices. The result: (once you take out the commission) the actual chance of a runner winning is within 15% of the final SP price.

Money (price) is a significant indicator. Thanks for your comments

Hi CairnsMan. Interested why you think "there's something more", if you're on a winner, that is? Thanks

Sounds to me like you're doing pretty well already. Not always helpful to expect total perfection.
If you are in profit, just up the stake.

A very sucessfull punter who I learned a lot from, told me "Never bet more than you'd be comfortable of losing"...

Quite simply, the pressure of losing money creates doubt in the mind of the punter and they make silly mistakes as a result.

My methods are very good and succesfull, last Sat I got 6 out of 7 winners (nominating about 3 in a race) and as a normal thing I can get 4 - 5 winners every Saturday and Wednesday. I only concentrate on Sydney tracks, not interested in Melb, and other tracks. Still I think I can do better so I am striving to improve, perhaps perfection is too big an ask but shooting for it can't hurt.

I agree with that up to a point but if you are too comfortable with the amount I reckon you can get careless. I prefer to bet an amount which hurts if it loses but which doesn't hurt my bank overall. My weakness over the years has been that I tighten up when the bets get large and end up being so careful that I rarely bet. I have overcome that in recent years since I have had to win but it was a struggle.

__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.

Agreed SpeedyBen,

My bets are not an amount dependant on my bank but one what i think the runner is worth.. I cautious but not too cautious.. find myself dutching when I should have gone for the win or even going for a place sometimes.. Takes disipline but not in a careless way.