Hi All,

again might I remind us all that this thread is about Risk Management, not staking. Almost everything I've ever read about Kelly stipulates that it increases risk. Therefore, as a RISK MANAGEMENT technique, it's a poor one. (Please note that I'm not commenting on it's suitability or performance as a staking plan, just on it's risk managmenet capabilities).

To Crasher:

the retirement staking plan is ok as far as risk goes, but a better one is the one that EJ Minnis espouses occasionally over at Ausrace. The main difference between EJ's and the retirement is that the target is a miserly one PER RACE. Rather than trying to achieve a target per series of bets, it attempts to achieve a small target per race, and the target is suggested as around 10c per race. Therefore, while the entire series of bets are in front, it will not increase the multiplier.

The major problem I have with a lot of loss chasing plans is that they tend to increase the multiplier as soon as you get one or two losers in a row, regardless of whether you've you've just won 10 in a row. Each time you reach your target, you start a new series of bets, and if you lose the first one, you start increasing your multiplier almost immediately. With a "per race target" approach, it effectively uses past profits to soak up a few losses. I have actually written a program which implements this and have offered it freely to anyone who wants it.

TO DarkyDog2002..... thank you for your well thought out and insightful comments :roll:

Cheers,
Chris.