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#1
24th January 2011, 05:02 PM
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some musings
"Punting is a mugs game"
"If a system worked then everyone would be doing it ..... then the price would drop and it wouldn't work"
They're fair enough comments, BUT, if the USA can stand by and watch the Sub-Prime debacle that no-one understood, but it's sent the US broke, then maybe there is a decent system out there that's been missed by those more intelligent than me (anyone breathing!). How many systems are there really? Thousands I'm guessing, and anyone of them will have a decent run where a profit is returned. I've mentioned before that I have a list of over 100 reasons given by trainers, jockeys, scribes and owners why their horse didn't win, one of these reasons is that some horses don't try when it's windy ..... how are you supposed to know that about a horse eh ??? I think systems need to allow for a failure.
This comment on Propun the “enjay system” threadffice:office" /> “No successful long-term punter bets any hard mechanical system like your one above. And there is a good reason why they don't, because no hard mechanical system works long-term.” ..... typical and possibly realistic, but mebbe not! I know a lot of punters and I don’t know anyone who uses a hard mechanical system, probably because they think, as it’s tempting to do so, if it’s that good blah blah blah …….. In the interests of blah, blah, blah and with the backing of nearly 40 years of analysis ….. The best methods I’ve managed to find are: A) Back a horse in Melbourne or Sydney coming from QLD, SA, WA and NZ with an impressive Win SR. A filter here could be to make sure the horse has won this time up ….. another filter could be the price. In this system, I don’t like the SR being overly influenced by excellent 2YO form. Some of these have had the guts run out of them, they may have a really good SR, but never win again. ….. there ain’t no more It's the inevitable run of outs that kills ya! I’ve looked at, won first up, WON it’s only start then spell, 5 consecutive placings, top weight - last start winner – C – 7 or 14 days, 4th up having won it’s previous start, 5 starts for 4 wins, won two in a row by 1 length or more, good first up record, and several thousand more ….. lol!!! They all have that killer run of outs. I do like the “price” filter and the number of days between runs. 
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