|
|
To advertise on these forums, e-mail us. |
|
|
Thread Tools | Search this Thread | Display Modes |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
My first system attempt
Okay so enough take and time to give.
I've been playing around with the 1st 5 favourites according the Newspaper the morning or the day before for years. I know there is a system there, I just have to find it. I am a probability person more so than a form or class person. So to speak! I got some ideas for how to trim down my selections over the past few days since joining this forum. The S/R for each of the favourites are okay but not enough to sustain by themselves at a flat bet. I used the Saturdays and Wednesdays of the past few weeks to begin with. Here are the % S/R to win for each of the 1st 5: 1st 24% 2nd 14% 3rd 9% 4th 9% 5th 8% I never like to bet on the 1st favourite because I don't like to bet in volume so a 1.30 win to me is next to useless compared to the risk. 2nd is often not much better. The average wins over this same period is: 1st $3.46 2nd $5.16 3rd $8.36 4th $7.23 5th $14.41 3rd, 4th and 5th are much better average wins but by themselves, their S/R would kill me. So I looked at combining them. Betting on 3rd, 4th and 5th would return 24% of the time. That gives me a S/R matching the favourites with potentially some bigger returns. On average the dividend split over 3 places betted upon, may not be much greater than the $3.46 but sometimes they can hit the roof. So I decided to look into weighting the bets based on a total bet for each race of $10. So if 3rd favourite was listed as 11/2 and 4th was 7/1 and 5th was 8/1, the bets would be rounded up to be $4 on 3rd, $3 on 4th and $3 on 5th with the intent of either paying off all the outlay and returning a profit. Applying this to my last few weeks of Sats and Weds I get 90 races which would have cost me $897 and returned $814 for a loss of $83. Pretty close. Now I just need to fine tune which races I ignore to increase my S/R on the ones that can really pull it off. After fiddling around with the odds for each I settled upon this: 3rd fav has to be at least 6/1 4th fav has to be at least 8/1 5th fav has to be at least 10/1 drop any race that has a fav over 100/1 (optional as risk to reward ratio is too great to be ignored for that one off win) So the new figures are: Outlay $183 Return $370 Profit +$187 I am pretty happy with that even though the perfectionist inside of me says "is this the best I can find?" I will leave this for a while and test it out. I may even pluck up the courage to drop selections in here each morning (never tried it on midweek meets but willing to check it out). Feedback/ideas/flaming arrows? I realise all is good in retrospect but the truth will come to light soon enough. |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|