Originally Posted by woof43

Once you have tested and found all the variables that work to some degree, that is the odds step down smoothly, you start to then categorize the favourites. This where you earn your money, there are infinite ways of doing this, i'll leave this up to you, but do a lot of thinking, success depends on how well you can learn to categorize races.

Your next step is to then go back thru your historical database for races that match each categorization. Then from your actual observations (statistically speaking), you then develop a probabilty matrix for every runner in each race or down as far as you can.

Should'nt be too hard to work out where it is all going now.

Obviously the categorizing is the key. pick a bad category you botch the race, but fortunately there is a fair amount of "forgiveness", but once you study this a little and eliminate the obvious bad way of doing things, it's not too hard.

I remember in the late 90's this type of categorizing was being developed where they had limited set "probability" tables but now with super computers set ups such as in HK, can develop far more complex catergory models and then "on the fly" search thru your database spaces searching for exact matches.

Something to think about