Here's a scheme of the "win building" type from that Turf Accountant website I keep referring to. Its a goldmine of stuff. But I wonder how accurate?

He claims to have a plan that makes big profits from Metropolitan favourites.

I'm having trouble following how this one works, but note the claims he makes at the end:

1824 bets
POT = 8.5%
Worst situation = down $499
Average bet size = $29
Net profit of $4,352 on a total turnover of $53,383.

And only betting on metro favourites to win! If true, amazing.

I am sceptical but here it is. I quote directly from the website.

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THE 100/20 PLAN

There are no"Rules" as such for the second Staking Plan that proved profitable for all Saturday/Public Holiday Metropolitan Favorites
over the twelve month period, but rather a Formula..


This Plan takes the complete opposite "Tack" instead of building up bets on Losses It makes it's major build up on Wins. The Plan relies on the occasional 3 or more consecutive win sequences to succeed, by waiting for
these sequences and betting virtually "All-up" we bet small until a winner is struck and thereby limit losses in the wait between "drinks".

The "Factors" in the formula have to be adjusted for the expected strike rates and expected "run of outs".

With the 30% strike rate I calculated the probability of 3 consecutive winners at 2.7% and allowed for my estimate of the 1/100,000 probability of 165 bets "misses" between trebles.

The Plan was then tested over the 1824 bets as above, and I would have expected a longest run of outs as in the table below - compared to the actual happening.


Run of outs between trebles
R/O/O/ Frequency Expected. Occurred.

110+ 0 0
100+ 1 1 (101)
90+ 2 2
80+ 3 4
70+ 5 6
60+ 8 6
50+ 11 8
40+ 15 16
30+ 24 23
20+ 41 39
10+ 51 49
0+ 57 56


The degree of correlation surprises even me, but validates the 165 provision in the Plan.


The Formula is:
Next Bet = T/I*D*W.
Where:
T = Targeted Return $.
I = Insurance Factor.
D = Dividend Factor.
W = Win Sequence.

T = Targeted Dollars = B + L*BT + CCL
Where:
B = Target Base.
L = Losing sequence.
BT = Profit Target per Bet.
CCL = Current Cumulative Losses this Current Sequence.

Sounds very complicated - IT IS - but it works.

"T" combines Profit and Loss chasing. If at a stage in the current sequence you have had 3 losing bets of say $5, $10 and $12, and you have set "B" at $100, and BT at $10 (That is the long term Plan is to profit by $10 per bet). Then C will be $157, that is the addition of the base target profit of $100, plus $10 per bet for the three bets, = $30 plus recouping the $27 loss this sequence to date. (Cumulative Losses) T = 157.

I = insurance factor

Now I is the insurance factor - it is the realisation that we cannot win all our target each bet, as the bets would become too high to manage - so we go for a portion of the overall target each bet. I use an Insurance Factor of 20. So I = 20.

D = Dividend Factor.

It is just a natural fact of the game that more TAB <$2 win than $2-$3 and even less >$4 win etc.

In the first Plan we increased our bets on the short priced/better chances by "Target Betting" here we use a Dividend Factor.

I only use 1 - 2 - 4 -KISS - but other methods could prove more accurate.


Factor 4 is used for any Win Divs under $3.
Factor 2 is used for Win Divs $3.00 - $5.00.
Factor 1 is used for $5+ Win Divs.


W = Win Sequence.

As I said we chase the win sequences. With an Insurance Factor of 20 we would never achieve our target otherwise.
The Win Sequence is 1- 3- 6- 10- 16- 26- 42. ( This is related to average expected Dividend and is adjusted accordingly.)
It rarely goes beyond a series of 4 and the factor of 10, since a horse paying say $3 with a D Factor of 2 and a W factor of 10 would have a factor of 20 and since the Insurance factor is 20 this 20/20 = 1,
in other words the bet would be the same size as the target and the target must be exceeded if the bet wins, and so the target would
become 'negative'. In the case of the target dropping below 100 re reset to 100.

For those contemplating setting up a Spreadsheet like this a few "tips".
All of these "Factors" such as Insurance size, Win sequence factors, Dividend Factors etc, should be set up in "named" cells and the
formulas related back to the named cells. Then you can "experiment"
by changing the insurance factor to say 10 or changing the third win sequence factor to 12 instead of 10,
you can then change certain factors in isolation or in combinations and see the effect on the entire series of bets at the push of a button. I
have used that type of methodology in analysing systems and staking plans and the two in combination for the last 20 plus years.

So using this Formula

Next Bet = T/I*D*W.

with I set at 20.
B set at $100.
BT set at $10.
D at 1 - 2 - 4 for <$2 # $2.10 - $4.00 # $4+
and W at 1 3 6 10 16 26 42....

The 1824 bets on Saturday Metropolitan favorites resulted in a net Profit of $4,352 on a total turnover of $53,383 for a POT of 8.15% the minimum bet size was $1 the maximum $500 and the average bet size was $29. After we had had our third collect on the second day we were always in front and using the TAB's money, except for an 8 bet sequence on the tenth day where we reached our worst situation of minus $499.

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You can check the website yourself at:

http://tucows.ecopost.com.au/~turfacts/turfacts.html

I'm not an accountant. Does this scheme add up? Can anyone with a head for formulae give a simple explanation of this one?

Cheers and good punting

Hermes