I lifted this from a turf website and reduced it to point form.

Formula:

P = A x (B - C)

P = Long term POT
A = Long term strike average
B = Long term average dividend
C = Long term average bet.

To turn losses into profits or to increase profits there are only four possible strategies:

1. Raise the long term strike rate.
2. Increase the long term average dividend.
3. Increase the average win bet size.
4. Decrease the average loss bet size.

Does this overlook anything? It seems to me that it puts the task at hand succintly. Every punter and plan on these pages is grappling with this formula and searching for ways to do one or more of points 1. to 4. Typically, my strategy is to try to increase strike rate (without upsetting dividend). Probably the least effective of the possible approaches.

Perhaps this formula is common knowledge. New discovery for me and provides some clarity, so I thought it might be useful.

Hermes

PS: Where does Burt's scheme fail by this formula?