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Old 18th September 2005, 08:07 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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I agree with many of the responses, but here are some new (along with repeated) thoughts:

A single-source POT of 21% for such a high strike rate is impossible long term. The practical holy grail is 10%.

Use the number of winners rather than number of runs to guide your confidence in the results.

An average system with a 10% strike rate and 2,000 runs would yield 200 wins.

Your sample has 213 wins and therefore is probably just as accurate as that 2,000 run test.

So take it out for a run now. The sooner you get real life lessons, the better.

There is only one optimum money management formula, the Kelly Criterion. Unfortunately it's abstract.

So you have to estimate the parameters of Edge/Odds.

Your (fractional) odds are ~6/4.

And your expected Edge should be no more than 10%.

Therefore bet no more than a diabolical 6.66% (=10/(6/4)) of your Bank.

That's a general rule of thumb, and some may find that high % contentious.
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