For those of you who don't know I used to be the tennis handicapper here at Propun, but have stopped for sometime due to other work pressures. I know you all love a try on the grass of Wimbledon and hopefully over the next two weeks I'll find you a punt or two to increase your banks.

You are all fortunate that I didn't post yesterday's thoughts with my four "value" picks all going under. Hopefully I can turn it around today - I need to as the bookie account balances are looking a little thin...

Dimitrov is a wild card and he’s up against Kunitsyn – here’s my punt of the day. Wild-card was given as he’s the reigning Junior Wimbledon champ and in his lead ups he played the Nottingham Challenger on grass (got in as a lucky loser) beat Dancevic who made the Final of Eastbourne last week before losing to the huge serve of Bozoljac 16,63,64. Got a wild card into Queens and beat Navarro who made the Semis of ‘s-Hertogenbosch last week before losing to Simon 76,76. Kunitsyn a loser to Tursunov in Halle (who did win Eastbourne last week) and beat Clement before losing to Sela in ‘s-Hertogenbosch – is 13 wins and 21 losses on grass compared to the kid who is 11 and 4 if you count Juniors here.

Ghedin to beat Gulbis – Ghedin a qualifier who beat van der Merwe, Kudryavtsev and Crugnola to make the draw (all no-names) but lost to the above mentioned Dimitrov in Nottingham qualies and is 17 wins and 8 losses on grass playing a few minor events. Gulbis right out of touch this year with 9 wins and 16 losses and not making it beyond R2 anywhere the whole season. In lead ups on the surface he’s played one match where he lost to clay courter Alberto Martin at Queens. Is 3 wins and 6 losses on grass in his life, wins coming over Vleigen, Seppi and Isner, losses coming to Beto Martin, Nadal, Murray, Baghdatis, Canas and Kendrick. At the 6.0 (Betfair) I’ll try the Italian no-name player.

That's it for me although I do expect Ferrer, Roddick, Murray, Wawrinka and Gonzo to all win through without too much effort - no value in those blokes though.

I'll do my best to do a post each day throughout the event - other pressures (eg. State of Origin 2) pending.

Cheers

Tonymess

have never really got into tennis..Tonymess..like some other sports that I have just started dabbling with lately..

i for one will appreciate your input..might even have a bit of a flutter..thanks..

There are two ways I can look at my disastrous 0-6 start to the event:

1) I'm travelling like a shin sore 2yo who has missed the start 6 lengths and am no chance of winning (glass half empty), or

2) With 6 straight losses it's about time I turned the corner (glass half full).

If you were on Dimitrov at Betfair you've done your cash after he wins the 1st set, then drops 9 straight games and retires, with various other bookies at least you get a refund as the match wasn't completed. Our other selection didn't raise a yelp.

Onto Round 2 tonight - the prices are my ratings based on their performances on this surface - market set to 100% and the shortest I rate a player is 1.03 (conversely the longest is 33.33)

GICQUEL, MARC 2.27 vs SEPPI, ANDREAS 1.79 - Seppi played very well against Blake and if he repeats that effort he should win this, not a lot of value around and as he's not the most consistent animal going around I'll skip this match - (note his team of Bolelli/Seppi retired in the doubles).

ANDREEV, IGOR 1.93 vs SPADEA, VINCENT 2.08 - Andreev a lot shorter than my ratings on opening prices and note that my ratings are based on previous form on this surface and do not take into account the fact that Spadea's had very ordinary lead up form in Challenger events on hard and clay courts. Could not back either of these guys a) because Andreev's no value and b) because Spadea will probably return to his ordinary self in this round (beating Capdeville in R1 here doesn't mean a lot)

LLODRA, MICHAEL 7.04 vs HAAS, TOMMY 1.17 - Haas 27 wins and 11 losses against lefties (5-0 on grass) and is currently 1.32 at Betfair which is value according to my ratings. Has been a shadow of his former self so even though the price is tempting I'll leave this alone - reckon he'll make it a clean 6 wins and zero losses to lefties on grass.

Cilic, Marin 1.66 vs Querrey, Samuel 2.52 - Early prices are very similar to mine, I do expect Cilic's serve to be too much for Querrey.

ROBREDO, TOMMY 1.87 vs KOUBEK, STEFAN 2.14 - Robredo 44 wins and 17 losses against lefties but definitely not a bloke I can back on grass, watched him play against Baghdatis last week and he was ordinary - I opposed him in Round 1 and although I mark him favourite here I can't fall into him at the ridiculous 1.21 currently on offer - cannot back the bloke who has had back problems especially after he's backing up from a five setter in R1, although I wouldn't be surprised to see him take at least a set.

SCHUTTLER, RAINER 1.11 vs SELA, DUDI 10.09 - Sela a bloke I can't get right, opposed him in Round 1 and now up against a semi finalist from last year - easy win to the German I'm tipping

FISH, MARDY 1.75 vs TIPSAREVIC, JANKO 2.33 - My prices roughly the same as the bookies and probably a match that will be tight. Close to a toss of the coin.

Djokovic, Novak 1.19 vs GRUEL, SIMON 6.33 - Djokovic trading at very short prices, should win but I'm not risking money for bank interest.

VLIEGEN, KRISTOF 3.5 vs VERDASCO, FERNANDO 1.4 - Vliegen 28 and 20 against lefties but 0-5 on grass so probably should move Verdasco's price in a little, he's currently around the 1.17 mark at Betfair which indicates an easy win but he's not any value.

MONTANES, ALBERT 5.31 vs CANAS, GUILLERMO 1.23 - Canas at 1.64 at Betfair but not your most consistent of beasts - cannot fall into the Jellyfish Montanes on this surface and I did punt against him in R1 (to my dismay) Canas a R1 loser in French open qualies and not been seen since, Montanes a R1 loser at the same event and same deal - hasn't played since.

Darcis, Steve 2.89 vs KARLOVIC, IVO 1.53 - The 7 foot tall Karlovic way way shorter in opening prices and the only punting I do on him is every set to go to a tie-breaker (has played 513 breakers in 538 matches at all levels on the tour - 311 breakers from 292 matches on the main tour) - I'll be on Karlovic to win each of the 1st three sets 7-6

TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 1.15 vs BOLELLI, SIMONE 7.56 - Tsonga should breeze through this (Seppi/Bolelli retiring hurt in the doubles - dunno which one it was but guessing Bolelli as he'd had the hard 5 setter in Round 1, but that's a guess and I don't punt on guesses)

Granollers, Marcel 6.57 vs SODERLING, ROBIN 1.18 - Soderling wins full stop.

BECK, KAROL 1.6 vs ALMAGRO, NICOLAS 2.66 - Value is definitely with Beck who went through qualies (beat Im and Franco Ferreiro before losing to Greul and making the draw as a lucky loser where he beat Lopez 10-8 in the fifth in three hours and 45 mins). Almagro taking 2 minutes shy of four hours to beat Monaco 8-6 in the fifth in his R1 encounter. This match could be decided by the player who has been able to better recover from their R1 exertions.

KOHLSCHREIBER, PHILIPP 1.03 vs MINAR, IVO 33.33 - German wins easily but he's a bloke you do not punt - I'll not explain why here but just don't touch him.

GARCIA-LOPEZ, GUILLERMO 33.33 vs FEDERER, ROGER 1.03 - Those people who have backed the "will Federer drop a set" option will have an easy ride for their money here - doesn't always do it easy in early rounds but cannot see Garcia-Lopez having any weapons to make any in roads.

I'll probably back Beck for a small amount, Karlovic to win sets in breakers and maybe Koubek to take a set (ie. either lay Robredo to win 3-0 at Betfair or back Koubek to win the match and Robredo to win it 3-1 and 3-2).

Not an inspiring night really - will be pumped after the Canetoads beat the Cockroaches on their own soil though - Inglis for 1st try.

Cheers

Tony

Really hoping Marin Cilic can go well, he's a real favourite of mine and i've had my eye on him for this tourny for a while

Wimbledon Round 2

del Potro, Juan Martin 2.71 vs HEWITT, LLEYTON 1.58 – Del Porto very short with bookies on opening prices and that would be based upon his potential to perform on grass, not his actual results. As we know Dicky Knee has a solid grass court record, however he’s had a lot of injury concerns of late and although the media and himself are playing down the hip concerns of last week I have heard all that rubbish before – what you would be punting on here is Dicky Knee’s fitness against someone who has the potential to perform well on grass even though they haven’t – Del Potro being knocked out in R2 his only two tries, Wawrinka 76(5),63,75 last year and Federer 62,75,61 in 2007. Should be interesting and I hate to say it (as I hate cheering for him) but I may try Mr New Idea.

PETZSCHNER, PHILIPP 2.92 vs Zverev, Michael 1.52 – Two Germans Petzschner with a very poor 9 wins and 17 losses record against lefties on the Main and Challenger tours. I normally don’t punt when fellow countrymen are playing but the early 1.64 available Zverev is very tempting – although his withdrawal from ‘s-Hertogenbosch last week against Llodra is a concern as is his career record of 8 wins 11 loss record on grass.

STEPANEK, RADEK 1.03 vs STARACE, POTITO 33.33 – I don’t bet on matches where Starace is playing.

Fognini, Fabio 23.51 vs FERRER, DAVID 1.04 – Fognini getting through as a result of Istomin’s retirement – can’t see him making round three as his game is just not suited to grass. Having said that, I watched Ferrer play Navarro-Pastor last week and he was ordinary (could have been a forced ordinariness though as a Slam was looming).

CRIVOI, VICTOR 4.8 vs DAVYDENKO, NIKOLA 1.26 – Davy a lot shorter in opening markets but should win easily.

MATHIEU, PAUL-HENRI 3.2 vs BERDYCH, TOMAS 1.45 – Two blokes who could be better but just aren’t (amazing how the stuff between the ears plays an important role). Whatever result happens here it wouldn’t surprise me (a five setter going 10-8 in 5th or a 60,60,60 win to one of the participants – either way I’d not be shocked).

MELZER, JURGEN 3.69 vs BECKER, BENJAMIN 1.37 – Becker 16 wins and 9 losses to lefties, Melzer the type of bloke who can pull out decent wins on these quicker surfaces. Becker a bit of value but did play 7 tough matches last week to lift the ‘s-Hertogenbosch trophy and fatigue may set in – if you really really really want a punt you could back Becker – I’ll probably wait it out.

KUNITCIN, IGOR 33.33 vs RODDICK, ANDY 1.03 – Yankee easily

Gulbis, Ernests 33.33 vs MURRAY, ANDREW 1.03 – Looks like Gulbis will continue the year without winning two in a row.

Troicki, Viktor 1.23 vs Gimeno, Daniel 5.42 – Gimeno surprising me by beating Dent in five sets over two days (although Dent losing a match doesn’t really surprise me), Troicki with a straight sets win over Dabul . Expect Troicki to win but the 1.16 currently on offer is a tad short – He’s no Federer.

VASSALLO-ARGUELLO, MARTIN 13.36 vs WAWRINKA, STANISLAS 1.08 – Opening prices similar to mine and why take silly prices blokes like Wawrinka?

Levine, Jesse 1.23 vs Cuevas, Pablo 5.29 – Both through qualies. Cuevas beating Decoud and de Heart before losing to Taylor Dent in four (got into the draw as a lucky loser when Monfils pulled out). Levine beating Groth, Kindlmann and Bachinger. Cuevas made Round two here by beating Christophe Rochus 11-9 in the fifth (match took three hours and 3 minutes) and Levine made it by beating a disinterested Safin in four sets. Cuevas 10 wins and 13 losses to lefties on the main and Challenger tours. I expect Levine to win due to his better lead in form, less exertion on day one and the fact he’s a lefty with those out wide easy service points.

GONZALEZ, FERNANDO 1.05 vs Mayer, Leonardo 21.15 – Gonzo easily and in all reality the 1.24 on offer early is not too bad a price. Mayer may have won 60,60,63 over Hernandez but the Spaniard really didn’t turn up.

FERRERO, JUAN 1.6 vs SANTORO, FABRICE 2.66 – Prices put up today pretty much mirror what I think, can’t convincingly tip anyone here.

DEVILDER, NICOLAS 2.28 vs HANESCU, VICTOR 1.78 – Hanescu a lot shorter than my price in opening markets and he did play to 12-10 in the fifth against Navarro (over four hours and 11 minutes) – Devilder took 3 hours and 42 minutes to beat Lapentti 7-5 in the 5th. Who backs up better – both maintained healthy serve stats throughout so no pointers on that front? May take Devilder just because the value on offer.


Simon, Gilles 1.03 vs ALVES, THIAGO 33.33- Alves through qualies beat Silva and Kamke before losing to Peya, got a spot in the draw when Nadal pulled out and then took full advantage by beating Pavel in 5. Reality is Simon wins easily.

Players who like multis at short prices could try Ferrer, Roddick, Murray, Gonzo and Simon. Players who like value could try Hewitt, Levine and Devilder. Me? Dunno yet.

Cheers

Tony

Sorry I missed last night - had a bit of an accident on my way home and couldn't post anything.

Tonight's prices.

PETZSCHNER, PHILIPP 2.99 vs HEWITT, LLEYTON 1.5 - Hewitt now ridiculous prices, no way I'd be taking 1.11 or so even though he should win.

STEPANEK, RADEK 1.93 vs FERRER, DAVID 2.08 - Toss a coin and early prices reflect that.

DAVYDENKO, NIKOLA 3.47 vs BERDYCH, TOMAS 1.4 - Which Berdych turns up is the question.

RODDICK, ANDY 1.51 vs MELZER, JURGEN 2.94 - Roddick a lot shorter in early markets but do expect him to win.

MURRAY, ANDREW 1.03 vs Troicki, Viktor 33.33 - Scot easily.

WAWRINKA, STANISLAS 1.63 vs Levine, Jesse 2.59 - Wawrinka very short in early prices and with 13 wins and 14 losses to lefties there is no way I'd be taking 1.20.

GONZALEZ, FERNANDO 4.91 vs FERRERO, JUAN 1.26 - H2H is 3 wins a piece. Ferrero definatley value and has won 26 (lost 13 on grass), Semi Finalist at Queens in lead in, a quarter finalist here in 2007 and has made R4 twice before. Gonzo 21 wins and 12 losses on grass - a quarter finilast here in 2005 - good match really and I may have a few $ on Ferrero at the price

HANESCU, VICTOR 3.06 vs Simon, Gilles 1.49 - Simon value in early markets but the French have been poor here (he's the only one left). I'll stay out of this.

Looks like a few $ on Ferrero as the only option - may just take him to win a set (ie. lay Gonzo 3-0).

Cheers

Tony

Hope a fwew of you jumped onto Hewitt over Del Potro and Ferrero over Gonzo at the outsider prices.

Today we have a rest day but I'll post my thoughts early. Funny how they build a roof at Wimbledon and probably won't get to use it.

Wimbledon Round 4

STEPANEK, RADEK 3.79 vs HEWITT, LLEYTON 1.36 - H2H is 2-0 to Hewitt but it goes back to 2003 when he won them both and one by retirement. Stepanek on court for 3 hours and 43 minutes in defeating Ferrer so a back up may be hard (the extra day's rest they get in Slams does help a little though), Hewitt taking 2 hours and 27 minutes to beat Petzschner in 3. I expect Dicky Knee to make the Quarters where he should meet Roddick.

BERDYCH, TOMAS 2.84 vs RODDICK, ANDY 1.54 - H2H is 2 wins a piece and my prices similar to opening ones. Berdych too inconsistent for my liking (and that's talking punting liking) so I'll stear clear of this.

MURRAY, ANDREW 1.24 vs WAWRINKA, STANISLAS 5.17 - H2H is 4-3 in Murray's favour, 2 of Warinka's wins coming on dirt and the other back in 2006. Murray a lot shorter than my pricing but I still expect him to be too good - issue is the external pressure being put on him from here on in. STill expect him to make the last 8 though.

Simon, Gilles 2.52 vs FERRERO, JUAN 1.66 - Ferrero won their only meeting in a clay qualifying match in Hamburg. Amazingly people are now jumping on Ferrero and he's been marked the favourite on opening prices and similar to mine. He's backing up from a tough 5 setter against Gonzo that took 3 hours whereas Simon was a ss winner over Hanescu, in 1 hour and 27 minutes. Simon a Quarter Finalist at the Aussie Open earlier this year so can go this deep in events, as we know Ferrero a Slam winner a Finalist two other times a semi finalist three times and quarters twice before so the experience may tip things in his favour. No value to be found though so not worth punting.

HAAS, TOMMY 1.43 vs ANDREEV, IGOR 3.31 - Andreev a winner in their only meeting in Davis Cup on dirt, Haas not getting any younger but has three slam quarter finalst and three semi finals to his name - Andreev with just the one Quarter Final (Roland Garros in 2007). No value in this match either.

SELA, DUDI 7.42 vs Djokovic, Novak 1.16 - Djokovic wining their only match up in straight sets in Davis Cup in 2006. As I've said all event I can't get Sela right but really he should be packing his bags after this match, this is the furthest he's been in a Slam and he's never even won an ATP Trophy (has a few - 13 in total - Challenger and Future events to his name all on hard courts).

VERDASCO, FERNANDO 3.16 vs KARLOVIC, IVO 1.46 - H2H is 2-1 in Karlovic's favour but their only meeting on grass was a win to the Croatian giant, 75,67(4),76(8), so nothing between them. All up he's 36 wins and 31 losses to lefties (includes those three against Verdasco). There is a little bit of value about Karlovic but be warned he's made the fourth round once before in 34 Slams (not counting this one) and VErdasco's made a Semi (Aussie Open earlier this year) and the fourth round 7 times from 30 attempts.

FEDERER, ROGER 1.03 vs SODERLING, ROBIN 33.33 - They're talking this up as the French open Final rematch - nothing to talk up in my opinion the French Open in 2004 was the last time Federer didn't make the Semi of a Slam.

Not a lot of value on offer and I expect all the usual suspects to win - and they are all marked as favourites with the books. Will not be much different from here on in, especially if they all do win as I'd pick Roddick over Hewitt, Murray over Ferrero, Djokovic over Haas and Federer over Karlovic. Then Murray over Roddick and Federer over Djokovic with Fed to win the Final. Could be more interesting though if an upset or two can occur along the way.

Cheers

Tony

Tony, that's a great read. I couldn't have Roddick at 1.54 in just about any of his matches and Berdych is capable.
Be great to see Hewitt in the Quarters.

Amazing - all 8 of my favourites lobbed in the previous round, wonder if we can keep that consistency going?

Wimbledon Quarters

RODDICK, ANDY 1.59 vs HEWITT, LLEYTON 2.69 - H2H record is 6 to Hewitt 5 to Roddick, but Roddick has won the last 4 including R3 at Queens a few weeks ago 76(2),76(4). Hewitt's 1st serve % still a notoriously low figure and dropping as he gets further into matches and that's not a good indicator. He spent 2 hours and 53 minutes on court in his 5 set win over Stepanek, Roddick on court for 1 hour and 48 minutes making a measly 8 unforced errors for the match. All up I expect Roddick to win this but don't expect to get my price of 1.60+

FERRERO, JUAN 2.45 vs MURRAY, ANDREW 1.68 - Played once before and amazingly it was on grass where Murray won the Semi at Queens a few weeks ago 62,64. Andy Murray a ridiculous early price with bookies at 1.10 or so and as I said in the previous round the mental pressure will get to him eventually. Another negative is the fact that he was on court for 3 minutes short of 4 hours against Wawrinka whereas Ferrero dispossed of Simon in just under 2 hours. On paper I expect Murray to win but there is no value there - you can't eat value and I don't like opposing local players (here it maybe a negative not a positive) but I may try Ferrero to at least take a set.

Djokovic, Novak 1.88 vs HAAS, TOMMY 2.13 - Played three times before with Haas winning once - a few weeks ago in the Halle Final 63,67(4),61. Early prices have Djokovic 1.40 or so and that is another silly price. I won't be betting though as Haas has had 40 attempts at Slams and has made three Semis (all at Oz Open), whereas Djokovic in 18 previous Slams has made the Semis (or better) 6 times. Could be another match where the favourite won't win in straight sets (or at all???)

FEDERER, ROGER 1.04 vs KARLOVIC, IVO 27.13 - Federer leads the H2H 8-1 (only loss came in R3 of Cincinatti last year 73(6),46,76(5)). Reality is karlovic's serve will keep him in this but you can't bet against a bloke who's made 20 straight Slam Semis or better.

As I had mentioned in the previous round the way I mark the matches has Roddick playing Murray and Djokovic playing Federer in the Semis BUT maybe the Murray, Djokovic matches could be a lot tighter than most people anticipate.

Good luck if you have a try on any of these.

Cheers

Tony

Not far off the mark with my Quarter Final analysis, Roddick did take longer to beat Hewitt than I thought and Murray did it easier than I thought, but one upset that was on the cards came to fruition.

Onto the Wimbledon Semis

MURRAY, ANDREW 1.68 vs RODDICK, ANDY 2.47 - Take out retirements and walkovers and the H2H is 5-3 in Murray's favour - did meet here back in 2006 with Murray winning 76(4),64,64. Again will the local factor be a handicap or a plus??? Murray ridiculously short in early markets considering he's won 1 Slam Semi Final (from 1 appearance) with Roddick winning 4 from 9 - last Slam Final he was in was back in 2006 at the US Open. I do expect Murray to win but am not in any way shape or form taking 1.33

FEDERER, ROGER 1.11 vs HAAS, TOMMY 10.21 - Way back in 2002 I saw these two play on Rod Laver in the 4th Round of the Aussie Open and Haas won 8-6 in the fifth, at the time I thought that these two guys would have a long and healthy rivalry - they may have but one of them has done a bit better than the other and it wasn't the bloke who won that day. All up the H2H is 11-2 in Federer's favour (I don't count a Kooyong exhibition win to Haas) and that day more than 7 years ago was the last time Haas beat the great one. In my opinion the poor German is going to exit in the Semis for the fourth time (never made a Slam Final in 40 attempts), whereas Federer's going into his 20th Slam Final from 40 attempts.

As I did say a few Rounds ago it does appear to be a Federer vs Murray Final but I didn't need to be Einstein to figure that one out.

Cheers

Tony