You really need to know what the dog is going to do when the lids open.



Forget times, sectionals, weight changes for now.



Your dog could be in the squeeze box yet will have a decent opportunity of gaining a clear run early IF FOR INSTANCE it is a good beginner and has a mad railer on it’s inside or one that jumps well and runs wide on it’s outside. You need a clear run early to gain and keep momentum. Another thing that will determine whether your dog gets a clear run is the class of race it’s contesting. The better class races you’ll find that instead of one or two good beginners, you might have two or three good beginners and one who flies early. So the fact that your dog is a good beginner may not cut the mustard and you might find your dog who “flew” last time only did so because it was in a slightly lesser grade and got an absolutely clear run for the first 50m. It’s a different story when there’s a little more competition out of the boxes.



The best thing for stay at home punters to do is to develop a guide that shows how dogs have jumped and what part of the track they head to early on. Whatever they do early in their career, they’ll keep on doing it for the rest of their career.



A tardy beginner in box 1 or even 2 might turn out to be a good bet especially if they like the rails. I cannot stress highly enough the value of concentrating on the first 20 metres.

Cranbourne Race 8

I'll be back in half an hour with a report on how the first 20 metres of this Race will fold out with each dog.

1 SHIRAZ COLOUR good
2 AUTUMN BLING slow
3 THANKS DES slow
4 BLUES JUDD slow
5 PURE PEACHES slow
6 DREWSTER slow
7 MARLY BOND good
8 GIGIT slow

I've got #1 as leading easily with #7 as getting across safely.
The rest are pretty evenly matched.

So whats the story now Barny?
Do I rate the Red up to its best recent Form, and the Black?

split times adjusted to The Meadows
1 5.128
2 5.203
3 5.123
4 5.258
5 5.164
6 5.165
7 5.298
8 5.240
Odds to be 1-2 at first turn
Winning Style Box 1st Split Rating Rank
FR 1 $4.70 3
BR 2 $14.74 5
FR 3 $4.21 2
BR 4 $147.06 8
FR 5 $4.94 4
FR 6 $4.19 1
VR 7 $108.70 7
BR 8 $39.92 6

1 25.351
2 25.241
3 25.391
4 25.347
5 25.244
6 25.376
7 25.453
8 25.336
Based on where they settle at the first turn.

1 SHIRAZ COLOUR $3.5
5 PURE PEACHES $3.8
4 BLUES JUDD $7.3
2 AUTUMN BLING $9.1
3 THANKS DES $15
6 DREWSTER $16
8 GIGIT $16
7 MARLY BOND $30

I've got the Red leading , but being run down by Pure Peaches.
#7 is up in Class and won't figure on the podium.

#2 Autumn Bling is more than capable if fit, but the weight sheet suggests it ain't ready tonight.

Moee
#2 84 day spell, racing at the heaviest weight of it's Life - just need the betting to confirm our expectations this dog today.

How is the Red the Quicker animal, yet the #6 is at a shorter quote?

Standard deviation.

maybe the most important figure in racing and the only one used by a few.

mooee, with the greatest of respect that info about good, slow etc, etc is totally useless if you want to win.

You need to be far more precise than that. If you're fair dinkum and not taking the **** I can help.