Just wondering what everyone's thoughts on whether a system has a use by date. What I mean is that I have a system that showed a nice POT over a period of 18 mths but for the last 12 mths has run at loss. Obviously factors such as the speed of the race, different training methods etc that a system cannot generally pick up will impact the figures. But is there a point in time when a system basically becomes redundant??

yep,...........

as soon as you pay for it!

:wink:

cheers
umrum

The hip pocket is definately burning, and even though it shows all the traits of a bought system it is really a combination of various rules that a few mates and I use. It's close to getting chucked in the bin and starting again. I have only recently started keeping a database so I can't comment on the area that is falling over in. Suppose it is a case of more research.

I have examined almost every system sold in the past 5 years using a database of 13 years Oz racing.

Just as Ian Barns (RIP) showed year after year in Punter's Choice I have found no system that lasts more than a month or two.

A system is easily generated by going back over the past year or so and finding some "Platinum" characteristic that sits within the 'group' that made up the winners. What the purveyors NEVER do is split the d/b 80/20, run the research on the 80% and then test against the 20% so that the results aren't already contained in the research data.

Roger Biggs calls these short term aberrations "data clumping".

There's no surer way of going broke than following a 'system' over the medium to long term.

gday flick,

is there any particular reason why a system works straight away. I can understand a system having a run of luck and then outs but why would it work early and then drop off.

cheers
umrum

Umrum, if you get involved in a two-up game in the middle of a run of heads and decide to ride the run ... is this a basis for a 2-up system ?

Have a look at PC and check from yr to yr how many systems disappear without trace. I could quote several but won't because of the sensitive nature of this forums managers.

Roughly 100% of systems depend on place. Now 5th can be anywhere from 0.1 lengths to 30 lengths beaten. Bong .... that's the sound of the penny dropping.

Now I've got to go and get his nibs dinner ready.

doesnt answer my question but thanks anyway.

cheers
umrum

Hi H
I run the TRB GTSi data base & have created a number of profiable systems .

Most successful plans only seem to have 5-12 bets a month betting 7 days a week .
It can be frustrating .
I believe one needs a data base of at least 4 years .
What I do is drop any plan that has a dramatic loss in any 6mnth period.

I run approximatly 100 plans all at once , which is worked out in just 2 seconds after downloading the data for the day.
I have about 400 bets a month , with an average S/R of 26% with a POT between 10-36% each month.

If you feel up to it , I can run your plan through my 4yr data base , with that I can try & improve the results by isolating each rule to find out where it has been falling over.

You can email me on
bhk (at) bigpond (dot)net (dot) au
I have layed this out in this manner so I dont get hit with spam mail, you just rewrite this out in the normal known format.

I have noticed that plans with a low place percentage S/R of less than 44% should be a warning to tread carefully. It means to me the system has got potentialy week legs to pull potential winners.

Another tip is to delete any selections which are 2.9/1 or less, pre-post , the value long term, is not there.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan, not having a go mate, but it seems that you have found the Holy Grail that most of the contributors to thus forum say is impossible! i.e. a winning system (consistantly) not on past results but into the future. Anyway thanks for sharing some of your plans with us.

Sorry guys, can't help myself.
"Blah blah blah, systems don't work", in other words "I can't win therefore no-one can".

:roll: