Can anyone tell me if the 10 last start form throws up a different result than the standard PUNTER 5 start.
Seems to be a big difference in price but could be worth it if it shows more accurate results using the default system.

The ratings will be different so system user won't notice any difference unless their systems use ratings. As to the ratings differences I don't beleive they will be of any significance over the long term as (a) most recent form is most important and (b) where you need more form for analysing first uppers etc the perceived improvement is probably cancelled out by the higher risk with such horses.

Neale is correct,

My studies show that the last three starts have nearly twice as much impact on the outcome of a race as previous starts.

Going back 10 starts does not reflect recent form.

Here, here CP!

Hope not to offend anyone by taking the contary view.

I find 10 start form more useful because I work on the basis that trainers set horses to repeat previous winning form habits.

That is if a horse won or peaked (that is achieved a high rating ) 3rd up last preperation it may do so 3rd up today.

So with 10 start form it is possible to chart where a horse peaked last prep and determine how far it is away from peaking today.

Going back 10 starts or more can reflect interesting form patterns - the more info the better IMO.

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Ta me go maith

I keep detail of top 3 performances no matter how far back they go.

When you see a horse in an improvement cycle, nice to know an established upper limit, especially if more recent form (prior to improvement indicator) is well below par for that horse.

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All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-04-18 11:26 ]

On 2004-04-18 11:25, Sandgroper wrote:
I keep detail of top 3 performances no matter how far back they go.

Hi Sandgroper,

this is an interesting idea, and I'm wondering if you'd care to share how you use this info.

I can see the easy part - which is knocking out horses who are running well below their best, but there's got to be more to it than that?

Cheers,
Chris.

On 2004-04-19 09:17, stebbo wrote:
this is an interesting idea, and I'm wondering if you'd care to share how you use this info. I can see the easy part - which is knocking out horses who are running well below their best, but there's got to be more to it than that?

Chris: While there is no doubt that current form is the more relevant form to work with when analysing a race and while not necessarily disagreeing with what others (Chrome Prince) have written about using the last three to five starts, there is on occasions a strong argument to go a bit deeper into a horse’s performance, particularly if there is an indication that on their best form, the horse is the ‘class’ runner of the field.

A mate and myself have often discussed this issue and a long time ago determined that you should never write off a horse that may be past its best but has been a ‘class’ performer earlier in its career and are always worth a tote ticket if they are at a value price.

One that immediately spring to mind is Bomber Bill who as a 7yo still retained the ability to be good enough to win the Group 1 Goodwood Handicap in Adelaide at the generous odds of $10.

But a more recent example of which illustrates my point occurred yesterday at Seymour in the Tatura Cup. Walk On Ice a multiple metropolitan winner but who has been totally out of form of late, losing by 7.6lens; 8.6lens; 3.5len; 13.5lens and 8.3lens in its last five starts. No way anyone using the either these horses last three to five starts would have selected it on form.

While having it rated third using my normal ratings approach, I did have it pegged as the ‘class’ runner of the field which led me to take a broader approach and re-rate the race using career performances in lieu of just its current form – it rated on top and won at odds of $5.50.

I’m not saying this approach will work all of the time but it certainly has its place when considering the identified ‘class’ runner of the field.

One more thing – the easy part is not as you say “knocking out the horses running well below their best”, more so irrespective of it’s current form, it’s being able to recognize a horse’s peak performance and ten start form is more likely to indicate this than the five start alternative.