I have been doing my own ratings for a long time and have often changed things to make them easier to work with...i don't price the selections just work out top rated and so on but recently i had to make same changes after having good results for months....have you ever wondered what the biggest obsticle is in horse form, CLASS i would have to say this is the down fall of everyone that rates horses how can you totaly estimate the class of a horse....form is easy to decipher win and place percentages are there in front of you, track and distance performances are easy to find but working out how all these things relate from one horse to another is not so easy....some use API some say this is a little unreliable but it is pretty accurate most of the times and can be the difference between finding a winner and not,,,,we could use a weight rating chart like Don Scotts or we could just look at all the race classes that are listed and allocate our own rating for each class.....or we could use the the prize money of the race as a guide, but can this be relied on to be accurate all over the country.....i am interested in how you rate class in a race and how many factors do you consider important in your ratings.....can you rate a race with say 3 factors for example (beaten margins,win%,API ranking) or do you need 10,20 or even 30 factors covering everyhting from what the jockey ate for breakfast to when the horse took it's last dump........and do you think the results are any better using the first example or the second.

Regarding Classes,
When doing classes in racing try to keep them in their right perspectives.Take a class 3 horse coming from a $4500 race say at Moree with 6kgs over a 54 limit [2nd]to a $10,000 Cl3 at Newcastle with 4kgs over on a 53kg limit.If he gets +1kg for the 2nd @ Moree = +7 and say you have the Newcastle race Rated @ 48kgs the horses Rating would be 52kgs[48+4 over at Newcastle].The class difference between Moree> Newcastle = the sum of [Moree +7> Newcastle +4 = -3kgs in class] but the horses rating still = 52kgs.If the horse moved up to Cl5 @ Moree and you had 1.5kgs between CLASSES the limit[same 54kgs] the race = $12,000 and the horse is carrying 56/54 limit then the Cl5 race = the difference between 61/54 limit in Cl3 to 56/54 limit Cl5 [7-2=5kgs up in class] so if the Newcastle Cl3=48kgs and Moree Cl3=45kgs allowing 1.5 between classes the Moree Cl 5 = 45+the 5kg drop in weight from Moree Cl3.This Class 5 is 5kgs stronger = 50kgs not 48kgs if the prizemoney was normal.
Regarding Filters,
Use:
Distance Range
Fitness
Barrier
Weight Over Limit
Jockey
Form
Regards

I do my own ratings and if I believe that knowing the class of the race compared to the class of the previous races a horse has been in is the most important thing of all. I basicaly only include weight carried, margin from the winner and jockey to calculate the horses future rating and am currently running at a profit from the ratings it produces.
I don't think you can blindly use a rating for a race based on anything as simple as the type of race it is. The strength of a race should be worked out from the horses that are running in that race. I've only been working on my system for about 9 months and look forward to many years of fun fine tuning and tinkering with it.
An interesting thing to consider when putting in filters and whatnot is that you don't only have to filter according to what is going to make a horse more likely to win. You have to balance that against what is more likely to bring a horses price down. For example I added a filter based on prizemoney of a horses previous race. I gave it a bonus based on a higher prizemoney race at it's previous start. Not only did that not work but when I did the opposite and gave it a penalty for competing in a higher prizemoney race last start I got a better return. A slightly diminished percentage of winners but a surprising increase in POT. I can only suggest this is because the average punter places more importance on the prizemoney of a horses last start than is warranted.

So how do you allow for class in your rating system KV?

I like to keep my ratings simple. they are based on only class, field strength, limit weight, weight and beaten margin. all the other factors i only consider on race day; i'd rather not manipulate the numerical figure too much.

i'm confident enough in my assessment of field strength (or quality) which is the key to any class ratings. i think i do just like Scott did, but i cant really remember as i havent read Winning More for like 19 yrs :P

when analysing form i place a lot of emphasis on early pace, finishing speed and form improvement.

Maybe I'm using the term class 'wrongly' here. To me the terms 'class' and 'strength of the field' are interchangable. If horses A B C D and E run against each other for a prize of $5000 midweek at Bunbury or for a $100000 feature event at Ascot I see no difference in the 'class' of the race. I consider the class of the race is determined by the horses running in it and therefore I work out my opinion of the class of the race from the horses expected rating in that race.

KV

Early pace and finishing speed are things I should like to look in to. Do you judge these things from observing the races or do you base them on 'figures' from somewhere after the races? If so where do you get the figures.

KV

Kenny, i've been playing with a spreadsheet that converts the sportscolour sectionals into readable figures. i find the presented format hard to read.

I come up with a race average for the 600m, 400m and 200m. the race average is given a rating of 100 and all individual ratings are assessed from this base.

i'll post more later if you want. now i'm going to go over the previous months meetings and also apply a pace figure based on (final time minus last 600m). its now clear to me that the finishing speed must be reconcilled to early pace.

eg, did a horse produce a stunning sprint off a fast pace? or a slow pace? did a leader in a fast pace stick on well? etc

Thanks for that Brave Chief. That last paragraph is educational in itself. It sets the mind working along new (for me anyway) lines. Any time you want to expand on your speed ratings etc. I for one will be eager to read it.

KV

where do you get your info from guys? I'm trying to get info to import into excel for research - i know Shaun will be of help

thanks

Chuck