amen

"Different strokes for different folks".

I have no wish to turn the above Positive into a Negative, Party - there's no profit in it, but 2008 did you say - I woudn't BANK on it - didn't you mention some of your banks had already gone - in racing\betting all the bookie needs is time.

My mum and dad were bookies for 47 years, from the day I was born I was either driven about by my mum in the family BRG Jaguar, or else Lou, our chauffeur, in a Humber Snipe - Only my mum drove the Jag., simply because my dad could not see his own hands, blind as a bat, but a hell of a brain.

My dad always drummed into us, all a bookie requires is time - Oh and the other thing he advised from when we were very young - to only bet with him and my mum, as many bets as we liked, so long as we could put the cash
down up front.
Yikes we had people delivering and picking up clocks from the big works' places - they were full of timed bets, so that nobody could put a bet on after time.
Mind you it looks like we would have had a Mini car if Top Rank had been on the scene - what was that again, 16 years, - Bwwwwwaaaaaaaahaha !!

Run of Outs Calculator

Heres a handy tool to work out ones worst run of outs on a given day.
The idea is to place the max number of bets one would have on a very busy day then press the button for each day.
e.g. say one has , say 20% SR & the max No. of bets one would ever make on one day is say 50 in the sample box.

Enter that into the relevant boxes & away you go, press the process button for each day, this should give you a worst case scenerio for most given days,
using that volumn of bets for a day.

Of course the less bets one has on a given day the less the run of outs should be .
Dont fall for the argument of 1000 bets in a row because no punter bets that many on any given day.

Each day of racing is different , with its own anomolies, thats why one should do this exercise relating to the max number of bets you feel you would do on a very busy day, not 1000 bets for a day but say 50 bets a day.

http://home.iprimus.com.au/jfc2000/drawdown.htm

Check it out , it is very accurate.


Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

The moral of the story of course as the calculator will prove, would be to have less but bigger bets!

Bhagwan, youre right there BUT, if you were betting day to day instead of PER day the run of bets is only goverened by how long you live. e.g. take the 1st race at Perth place your bet, your next bet is the 1st race at Perth TOMORROW etc etc the same for races 2-8, (that's why I have 8 banks working at each meeting in theory) though in practice you will never have to exhaust all banks for all meetings, well, .....if you did you would have given up long b4 then.
When some banks are going through a rough time some of the others are performing better than expected so there's no hurt at the end of the day/week/month

Racer, I am well aware that things can turn bad at any moment, 3 of my win bets yesterday, Black in Time, Collegian, Kaleido, sometimes you swear the Gods are against you.

But as far as 2008 is concerned, it's already allocated mate there's no way it's going back in the satchell

Must have been in the UK Racer?

Yes, the bookie requires time because the odds are in his favour and against the punter regardless of who wins or losses on a particular day. The only criteria being that his liability has a ceiling on it.

Which is why staking plans will not work in a negative expectation, unless there is some edge within.

A bookie could lose of course if he were hit by a number of stings where his odds were greater than the horse's chance even though his book had a margin in it, it just depends on whether he is a gambler or bookmaker
That's why there are limits at casinos and at racetracks to make sure that the rorts and shifty's can't send an otherwise profitable business broke.

Top Rank could well be winning using a staking plan in a negative scenario over 16 years, because his staking plan stakes more on the horses that are positive expectation, he may not (or his method) that this is in fact the case, the way the cards or his method have fallen.

__________________
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A negative expectation outcome remains a negative expectation outcome.

There are no [not enough obviously] positives within a negative expectation game [an oxymoron] for there to be anything positive about them, as end result outcome is what is important and if it's negative it's negative.

It's a bit like saying I had a great day because I had 1 small winner [a positive] out of 10 bets instead zero winners out of 10 bets [I lost less than I could have]!

Crash,

What I meant was that the odds might be against all favourites for example, but within that he might be staking more on the favourites that beat the odds.

A certain type of favourite might return 10% profit at bookies prices, while the rest lose 30%. Ergo he is betting in a positive expectation game even though the overall expectation is negative.

If there was no positive expectation, only the bookies, then nobody would win - ever, overall....and that's certainly not the case.

The bookies expectation is positive, because he puts up odds on every race, whereas the punter can be selective and turn the expectation in his favour.

All the big bookies can actually name many customers who are long time winners. They just don't let them on anymore, because they know they turned the odds in their favour.
So now these winning punters have commission agents who bet smaller amounts on their behalf, in order to get set.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Results today:

Day 4 Backing Progressive : $27.81 PROFIT
Day 4 Laying Progressive : $ 96.24 PROFIT (CARRIED FORWARD FORM DAY 3)
Day 4 Backing Level Stakes : $-94.00 LOSS
Day 4 Laying Level Stakes : $94.40 PROFIT

Overall :
Backing Progressive : $384.62 PROFIT
Laying Progressive : $-194.22 LOSS
Backing Level Stakes : $-31.90 LOSS
Laying Level Stakes : $-6.1 LOSS

Another day where both progressive stakes showed a profit. The Laying system is still down on this bank from the last few days and will continue to be carried forward.

This gets me thinking a bit more on what we should be staking. If the lay and the back is showing a profit on the same selections then do we just need to lay/back the difference to produce a profit.

For example if the backing bank is said to stake $10 per selection and the laying bank says to stake $15 on the selection then we should be laying for $5.