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#91
20th October 2019, 08:16 PM
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Did we finally see the form franking race ahead of the Melbourne Cup?! No, not the Caulfield Cup! The Long Distance Cup held at Ascot overnight. Kew Gardens and Stradivarius were in a battle royale: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g4bPQSAiM8. Stradivarius takes the lead and looks like he'll run away but Kew Gardens won't lie down, fights back and beats him in a photo.
An enduring criticism of Stradivarius - despite winning every contest since coming 2nd to Order of St George in the 2017 running of the very same race - is that he never puts his opposition away. 9 of those 10 victories were inside of two lengths; the biggest win just 3 lengths. While there's no shame in getting beaten by Stradivarius, the margin often doesn't give a fair indication of his combatants' efforts. Even in this race, he makes up the two lengths he's behind early on in the straight, but that strong move stops once he knows that he's hit the lead. Kew Gardens then pushes him along, they both draw away from the rest of the runners and either Stradivarius tires slightly when finally being stretched in this manner, else it's a lucky bob. This race was only moved to Ascot in 2011 so it's hard to do much in the way of time analysis, but it's the fastest since that inaugural running (which was on Good, whereas the track grading here was changed to Soft after this race). 3rd place was 5 lengths back , 4th 6 lengths adrift and the rest 10 lengths and beyond. So instead of looking at horses who went up against Stradivarius to determine form, how about looking at those in relation to Kew Gardens? Unfortunately Kew Gardens suffered an injury following the Coronation Cup and missed around 3 months of the European season. In that race he ran up to his career high, finishing 0.5L behind Defoe. He returned for the St Leger but his trainer Aidan O'Brien claimed that he "barely made it back" in time. Still, he finished ahead of Southern France (1.5L), Cross Counter (1.75L), Master of Reality (1.75L), Latrobe (3.25L) and Twilight Payment (4L); second only to Search For A Song, the 3yo filly the field let get out to a huge lead who ran on. Racing Post rated his run 5 points below that in the Coronation Cup and 6 below that in the Long Distance Cup, so while it might be a good race to compare the other runners to each other (all at equal weights) it might be inaccurate to compare them to Kew Gardens' better performances. Looking back at the Coronation Cup, Marmelo is worryingly a 9 length 5th - though there is a race comment that he was held up and 2400m is less than ideal for him. Following the winner Defoe though, he goes from the Coronation Cup to the Hardwicke Stakes. Racing Post give him just 1 rating point lower in that than for his previous. Who's finishing in third? It's yesterday's third placegetter in the Caulfield Cup at $16: Mirage Dancer. (....and an 8-length 6th is Southern France). So maybe the top-6 in the Caulfield Cup (who all finished within 2 lengths of the winner) are going pretty alright. They're all doing quite well per 'the system'. Only Mer de Glace (more than 5 career wins) and Mirage Dancer ($16 or greater in their previous race) lose any possible points. Their ability over distance could be a differentiating factor though: Finche we know about, Vow And Declare has convincingly won a Group 3000m earlier this year and Mustajeer won the Ebor Cup over 2800m. The rest haven't run beyond 2400m. 
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#92
21st October 2019, 12:42 PM
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Gold Mount out of the Cup. Found to be lame after the Caulfield Cup.
Today's Order of Entry is here, but he's still on the list in 29th position: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-as-at-oct-21. Mer de Glace has received a 1kg penalty.
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#93
21st October 2019, 02:10 PM
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Here is the current standings in 'the system'.
Following the 1kg penalty Mer de Glace drops a point as he's no longer weighted less than what he carried in his preceding race. Third declarations are due next Monday.
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#94
21st October 2019, 09:18 PM
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Thanks for the updated table.
Looks fairly crowded up the top. That could mean a very competitive race this year but I think that is good. I prefer to dutch when there are a good number of chances as its more likely to be one of those horses. Will definitely be an interesting race this year.
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#95
22nd October 2019, 11:09 AM
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Red Verdon26 is out with a leg injury. Following his 8th in the Caulfield Cup he was found to have superficial abrasions on 3 of his legs. They did a bone scan test to be safe and found a tiny fracture that could develop into something far worse. This is the second year running where he's come out for the Cup and had to be withdrawn through injury. Qafila27 is also not continuing on to the Cup per his stable, following his 17th placing at Caulfield. The final field is out for the Cox Plate:
The winner gets a ballot exemption for the Cup. Minor placegetters pass the first ballot clause. It's a shame Humidor didn't make the final field - Winx retires and he doesn't get a chance to win it with her gone! He'll likely contest the Moonee Valley Gold Cup instead: which is probably going to be easier to qualify via, to be honest. The Geelong Cup is tomorrow and the following nominees will be running:
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#96
22nd October 2019, 11:45 AM
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*Only* 13 horses in the top 24 order of entry are actually within the top scoring levels in walkermac's table (i.e. scoring 10, 9 or 8). Obviously things can change a bit but if you want to be really strict and only look at horses within those scoring levels it helps eliminate half the field which is quite handy.
On top of that if you eliminate a few runners based on how they are weighted vs their rating and/or appear to be a little overbet then you can narrow things down quite a bit. For example if you look at the current Melb Cup futures a lot of the Caulfield Cup placegettors have had their prices brought right in. In addition Constantinople is now the clear fave when it has some solid hurdles infront of it in terms of weight vs rating which walkermac has highlighted. I find myself looking more at Vow and Declare and Mirage Dancer after the caulfield cup.
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#97
23rd October 2019, 08:31 PM
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Results from today's Geelong Cup (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ1XfgvsESk):
Things went to script for Prince Of Arran with his connections publicly begging the handicapper for a weight penalty after taking out the race. Just 0.5kg will shift him up to around 29th; 1kg will leave him about 23rd in the Order. I think there's a chance of 4 or 5 of the current top 24 not going on to contest the Cup, so he'll be hoping for not only a penalty of some sort, but also some surety after third declarations next week. Cup nominees running this Saturday (Humidor and Mr Quickie are both also emergencies for the Cox Plate):
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#98
24th October 2019, 12:21 AM
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 Magic Wand
4yo B Filly
Galileo (IRE) - Prudenzia (IRE) [By Dansili (GB)]
18s: 2-7-2
Magic Wand certainly doesn't make a habit of winning, with only 2 victories across her 18 starts. Each of these were mid last year in sex and age-restricted company. 0 wins from 10 Group 1s makes for worrying reading. Though her trainer contends that's due to the quality of her opposition, rather than lack of ability on her part. She has certainly shown some good spirit in being amongst the placings for a lot of her runs. In her current campaign - a series of 7 races thus far that stretches back to March and will continue this weekend with the Cox Plate and thence to the Melbourne Cup - she's only missed a podium finish twice. In those misses she really bombed: pulling out of the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes and finishing 10 lengths adrift in the Dubai Sheema Classic. Magic Wand has just had the one qualifying performance: the 2018 G1 Prix Vermeille in which she came 2nd (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMdeXPTXwls). Showing some impressive speed in the straight, she was narrowly beaten by Kitesurf (who was up against Marmelo two races earlier, going down there by 2.75L while carrying 1.5kg less over 2800m. Kitesurf went on to the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes where Magical beat her by 5 lengths; arguably about square given that Kitesurf was carrying 3kg more). Though Magic Wand qualified via that race, she's pretty much coming because of her results in another: in the Irish Champion Stakes she finished 2.25L behind Magical at equal weights (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqdcNvXb1po). Magical has been a very consistent and high-achieving runner. She's not been far off stars Enable and Crystal Ocean this season, with her official handicap hovering around 122-123 across all runs. Given Magic Wand's official handicap going into the Champion Stakes was 111, connections would have been stoked with her performance. Perhaps just as much by also edging out Anthony Van Dyck with his 118 handicap (carrying 1.5kg less than the first two). Magic Wand's handicap was bumped up to 114 but if this race was indicative of future performances, then it may have been underestimated. She's currently weighted to her rating in the Cup, but this was probably a 121-performance: potentially leaving her with a very friendly handicap. It was a race over 2000m though, a distance where she may have no wins, but does hold a 6-from-6 place rate. At longer distances it's a little more spotty. Up to 2400m - the furthest she's raced - it's 1 win & 1 place from 6 attempts. Her record also seems to imply she's better on solid ground, so might bear watching given the forecast rain this weekend. The other race of hers worth examining is also over 2000m. In the Wolferton Stakes she finished just ahead of Latrobe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEkwgqn0NQQ. Though it's probably a little on the short side for him, it goes to show that he wouldn't want to give Magic Wand a headstart in the Cup. The winner of that race, Addeybb, just finished 2nd to Magical in the Champion Stakes last weekend, with Anthony Van Dyck in 3rd. The form is franked; but whether the form can be reproduced, is the question. Lending further weight to her trainer's argument that her poor win record is due to the quality of her opposition: in the US she had a couple of 2nd places to Bricks And Mortar, who looks to be a candidate for the American Horse of the Year. He's 5 wins from 5 starts this year, with 4 of those coming at Group 1 level. He's also rated at 120 in the Longines World's Best Racehorse Rankings, which makes him the second-highest-rated U.S.-based horse. His breeding rights were recently sold to Shadai Farm in Japan, who were looking to replace Deep Impact. In Magic Wand's most recent race against Bricks and Mortar she carried 1.5kg less (i.e. less than the 2kg mare's allowance) and finished within a length, the time within a second of the race record and the fastest for nearly 25 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io0PLy6rhzc Travel shouldn't be a bother. She's done a fair bit for her age: Ireland, England, France, USA 3 times, UAE and now to Australia. Her ability over the distance seems the real concern, given her performance record. Looking at her figures it appears that she should do fine though. Her Dosage Profile is (3-4-19-12-0) with DI 0.77 and CD of -0.05. That's all very similar to Marmelo. Her Conduit Mare Profile is (5-7-1-10-10), with Speed 12, Stamina 20, Index of 0.58 and Triads (13-18-21), which again is quite similar to Marmelo's only even more suited to further, given the points in the Professional category. She's currently languishing towards the bottom of the table per 'the system' though that will likely change this weekend. Magic Wand is going to remain a mare (so will miss a point there) but she'll definitely pick up some others. The field size will be greater than 10 (+1), she's currently at $14 in Cox Plate betting (if it stays under $16, as you'd expect after emergencies are ruled out, then that's another +1) and were she to do well on Saturday her Melbourne Cup price will definitely shorten from the current $41 (+1 if she finishes up <= $21; which is closer to her true odds IMO). Suddenly she's on 9 points - and is in the half of the field the winner is likely to come from (I'm not sure the system will be much help this year!  )I think she's a great prospect this weekend with her first up record, her past performances over the distance and how she could compare very favourably to others on her peak effort. The issue might again be the quality of her opposition.... Still, at this very moment, I'd have her among those whom I'm most interested in for the Cup.
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#99
24th October 2019, 10:41 AM
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Prince Of Arran has been given a 1kg penalty after winning the Geelong Cup. I wonder what the result would have been had he not placed in last year's Melbourne Cup and been in danger of missing this field....?
The Geelong Cup winner has earned a weight penalty the past 13 years. And I know this because Racing Victoria have released the list, presumably as defense of the decision: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ners-since-1980 I think he was pretty lucky. It looks like they may have based it on his finish with respect to Red Cardinal and Red Galileo, neither of whom are going to be in the Cup. It wasn't based on True Self: despite her finishing within 0.2L, Prince of Arran now carries 1kg more (were True Self to make the Cup - and she almost definitely won't). The only other runners that were there and still in line to contest the Cup now (save for winning exemption through the Hotham Handicap on Saturday week) were Steel Prince (who looked to just treat it as a conditioning run back in 8th) and Muntahaa. Somehow - despite finishing last in each of his 4 races since the 2018 Melbourne Cup - Muntahaa is 25th in the Order. Hopefully they don't pay for third acceptance (due this Monday). If they don't drop out then surely the organisers must use their powers to turf him out themselves. Prince of Arran certainly deserves to be there ahead of him, though several others may feel aggrieved about it, having been leapt also. Prince of Arran now moved into 23rd in the Order of Entry, per the updated list: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-as-at-oct-24.
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#100
24th October 2019, 01:47 PM
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Quote:
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