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#111
29th October 2019, 07:41 PM
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 Raymond Tusk
4yo B Horse
High Chaparral (IRE) - Dancing Shoes (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]
12s: 3-3-1
Raymond Tusk is a character in the US TV Series House of Cards, a billionaire industrialist with an interest in nuclear power. Is his horse namesake about to go thermonuclear in the Melbourne Cup?
He's a syndicated horse whose company decided to steer towards the Cup after fielding plenty of offers to purchase from Australian groups. They figured that Raymond Tusk must have something going for him, so elected to take him to Melbourne themselves. They made a tactical pass on the Caulfield Cup, trusting that natural attrition would be enough to scrape into the field. In the end, they're well in; currently lying at 21st in the Order of Entry.
Raymond Tusk has the 3rd lowest eligible winnings from those comprising the Top 24. The bulk of that prizemoney is from his sole Group-level win: in Milan. That was also his last victory - just 5 races ago - but a year and a day ago today. There were only 5 horses in the race and it wasn't a comprehensive victory: the first 3 finishing within 1 length. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrw7m6VvxZc. I'm not one for analysing a horse's action, but....that's a pretty impressive action he has.... It's hard to judge the quality of the race. The two placegetters were German horses with current ratings of 106 (+2.5kg) and 111 (+1kg). Raymond Tusk was a 3 year old and they were 1-2 years older. Third hasn't raced since; second finished 2nd in two Listed races in August.
He had a few months off before resuming in the Amir Trophy in Doha, which also featured Hunting Horn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHXVKFhY7Ec. Held over 2400m, Raymond Tusk finished 1.25L behind Hunting Horn at level weights; he'll carry 1kg less in the Cup. As noted in Hunting Horn's profile, he ran past Raymond Tusk easily enough in the straight.
Raymond Tusk returned to English shores and tried his luck in Group 1 company, finishing 2nd to Dee Ex Bee (3.25L) and then 3rd to Crystal Ocean (5L). In the former race, Raymond Tusk only lost contact in the last furlong of the 2 miles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTB83JxeATo. Dee Ex Bee also went on to win his next race, then finish 2nd to Stradivarius in his following three Group 1s, a series of runs which also saw his rating go up 4 points. RT carried 2.5kg more than the winner in their race, so it was an impressive run all round.
In the second race Raymond Tusk went back to 2400m and Crystal Ocean put on a bit of a clinic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3hekfPUxHo. It was a deserved margin given the $1.20 starting price, and Raymond Tusk couldn't stay with him for the last 2 furlongs.
Next race was the 4000m Gold Cup: not only his longest contested distance, but also his first encounter with a Soft track. He finished 7th of 11, 8 lengths adrift: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB69t2__p9w. 7L ahead of him were fellow Melbourne Cup candidates Master of Reality and Cross Counter; though he will get back 1.5kg and 3.5kg respectively. I'm not sure his high knee lift running style would be suited to wet tracks either.... That performance was pretty much expected though, per a stable spokesman ahead of the race: "He is still 6lb short of Stradivarius. If somebody said to me he will finish within six lengths of him, I would take that now, because that might be third - but it could easily be sixth." After the race they agreed that he didn't stay out the trip and his opposition were too classy.
His current odds - now $18! - are pretty much due to his Ebor Cup results. The stable said the 2800m was far more suitable and his performance bore that out: drawn the carpark he raced towards the rear, then was held up in the straight from last position, but still ended up a 2-length 4th. He definitely had the best run in the race, in arguably the strongest Ebor run ever and in the fastest time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5gkgBmRKAE.
In the Melbourne Cup he gets 1.5kg back from Red Galileo (2nd 0.75L) and 2.5kg back from Mustajeer (1st). Prince Of Arran (+0.5kg) and Raheen House (-1kg) were well held and won't be weighted too dissimilar in the Cup. True Self got a friendly handicap though, only finishing 1 length further back and 2kg better off were he to win his way through the Hotham Handicap.
The stable reckoned 2800m was more his distance. Per his pedigree stats, his Dosage Profile is (3-8-34-4-1) with DI 1.27 and CD 0.16. That says around 3100m. His Conduit Mare Profile is (6-8-1-12-5) with Speed 14, Stamina 17, Index 0.91 and Triads (15-21-18). Say, around 2600m? 14 is the highest Speed figure left in the Cup field, though he shares that mark with Rostropovich, Ispolini and Neufbosc. His Stamina figure hits that magic number 17...
I don't mind him. He carries 1kg less than his rating says that he should. He meets many of those he's gone up against lately better at the weights. He has that 17 Stamina, survived my rejigged pedigree filtering, and has sighted the Cup distance. I would however, want him to be on a dry track and to be drawn well inside for a cushy run closer to the speed. His good Ebor run was 1st up after a 4 month spell and it's been just over 2 months since then, so that break ahead of the Cup shouldn't be too much of a problem. He does seem to be a just a smidge below the real high-flyers though and would need some things to go his way. Should include in trifectas and first fours, to my mind. 
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#112
29th October 2019, 11:28 PM
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 Vow And Declare
4yo CH Gelding
Declaration of War (USA) - Geblitzt (AUS) [By Testa Rossa (AUS)]
12s: 3-3-2
The Great Australian Hope! Currently the 4th favourite at $12. Is patriotism shortening his odds? Or is he as genuine a chance as the price implies? Vow And Declare first announced himself in the Queenland Derby, finishing within a length of Mr Quickie at odds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ckl403bn-I. His rating rocketed from 73 to 85 - and then sped further to 99 following his performance as favourite in taking out the Tattersall's Cup, beating second placegetter Big Duke by 3 lengths as he sped down the straight: http://mediaatc.skyracing.com.au/Ra...622EAFR06_V.mp4 That finished his Winter campaign and he resumed 3 months later in the Turnbull Stakes. He finished a close 4th (1.7L): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zAgHvA4stE with Kings Will Dream taking the victory and Finche just 0.1 lengths behind. Though only over 2000m, Vow And Declare will get back 1.5kg over Finche - who otherwise held him comfortably in the straight. Vow And Declare's final race ahead of the big dance was the Caulfield Cup, where he ran on from worse than midfield to take out second position, 1 length behind Mer De Glace and just ahead of Mirage Dancer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkC7OfGgUbc. Swooping late he ran the fastest final 200m of the race, which surely must augur well for the 3200m distance. Come Cup-eve his rating is 102. ....but he must carry 2.5kg greater than his rating would suggest (when compared to Cross Counter). On the positive side: he gets 1kg back vs Mer De Glace. Per his Dosage Profile of (6-8-6-0-0), DI of 5.67 and CD of 1, he's not suited to long journeys at all. His Conduit Mare Profile again indicates that he's suited to far shorter: (5-8-2-9-5) with Speed 13, Stamina 14, Index 0.95 and Triads (15-19-16). No other horse has won a Melbourne Cup with an Index so high this century (the closest is Prince of Penzance with 0.92). Criterion in "crazy 2015" is the only horse to place this century with a Speed figure greater than Stamina. Only two others have placed with a 1 point discrepancy between the two: Jardines Lookout and Maybe Better were both 4+ length 3rds. Of course all this pedigree stuff should be discounted when presented with evidence to the contrary and there's every indication thus far that Vow And Declare will make the distance comfortably. ...but how good is Big Duke now? That is: the horse he beat into 2nd place over 3000m. Big Duke has required a vet certificate to race again in each of his last two runs. That can't lend much confidence.... As much as I'd like Vow And Declare to be a real prospect, I think it more likely that he'll be scraping into the top 10.
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#113
30th October 2019, 12:03 AM
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I hadn't mentioned it earlier as I was waiting for further information, but there were some concerns regarding the fitness of Marmelo and Ispolini. They were sent for scans when soreness was detected by a Racing Victoria vet. The results of those scans were subsequently forwarded to their trainers - presumably so they could make some hard decisions or undertake further investigation prior to the "official" vet checks of the top Cup candidates this weekend.
I can understand that Racing Victoria are especially cautious regarding the physical capabilities of each potential runner. I think I remember reading that only one of the past 5 runnings of the Melbourne Cup hasn't had a runner that sadly died during or immediately after the race. If they can prevent such an occurence happening again by being hyper-viligant with the physical well-being of candidates, then I am all for it. If it's found to be of benefit, I would hope such vigilance is extended to every race on the calendar. The issue is of particular relevance now given the recently publicised results of the ABC's investigation into retired horses and the increasing anti-Cup sentiment from the general public. I have to admit: I have huge ethical concerns regarding the whole racehorse industry. I honestly would much prefer to be talking about humans participating in these races, than horses from whom we can't clearly ascertain whether they want to be involved or not. I don't have a background with horses at all and I'm mostly in love with the amount of data available. I've certainly learnt that horses are incredible athletes along the way, but the post-race future (or even pre-race existence) of thoroughbred horses is an issue that I'm not at all comfortable with. That being said, I am very pleased to read of Hughie Morrison's confidence regarding Marmelo: "I didn't see having a scan as a problem," Morrison said. "We know this horse incredibly well. Tom (his handler) has ridden him since he was a baby. I have known him since he was a two-year-old. "Tom, who has loved him for three years, said he is moving as well as ever and Hughie (Bowman) rode him today and said he worked better this time than he did this time last year. "All roads lead to next Tuesday. "He was x-rayed and cleared before he came and he was x-rayed last week. His x-rays showed no difference to this time last year and I think the CT scan, from what I have heard, I don't think it's significant. "I think his form is probably on a similar level." Similar news for the Godolphin pair who underwent scans, Cross Counter and Ispolini: "We were very happy with both of them today," foreman Chris Connett said from Werribee. "We have been happy with them the whole trip. "Regarding Cross Counter, he had a slight filling in his left front and on vet inspection by Grace Forbes, she was a little concerned. "We took some x-rays, which we were happy with. We were invited to go for a standing CT, which we did on Saturday, and we have been passed clear. We are very happy with that. "With regards to Ispolini, when he arrived here RV vet Grace Forbes was not exactly happy with his action and invited us to go for a standing CT. "Those results have come back and the team back home are looking at those. He went for a scan yesterday (Monday) at Ballarat. When we get the results back from there the team back home and the vets here will have a discussion and decide what we want to do. "They both look good to my eye. They haven't missed a day of training while they have been here. Their gallops have been good and at the moment we are full steam ahead. "As long as we get the okay, they will work tomorrow."
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#114
30th October 2019, 10:49 PM
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A lot changes in a day...
Marmelo out. Ispolini out. "Marmelo was referred to the University of Melbourne Equine Clinic to undergo a standing CT scan across the weekend after showing signs of soreness upon inspection by RV veterinarians. "The results of the standing CT scan indicated an incomplete fracture in the horse’s near fore cannon bone and an incomplete fracture in its off hind cannon bone. "Having considered the RV veterinary report, in addition to veterinary reports submitted by trainer Hughie Morrison, Stewards acting under AR20(d) have ordered the withdrawal of the horse from the Melbourne Cup." "Ispolini was referred to the University of Melbourne Equine Clinic to undergo a standing CT scan across the weekend after showing signs of soreness upon inspection by RV veterinarians. The results of the standing CT scan indicated pre-fracture pathology within the horse’s right front cannon bone. "Having considered the RV veterinary report, in addition to veterinary reports submitted by trainer Charlie Appleby, Stewards acting under AR20(d) have ordered the withdrawal of the horse from the Melbourne Cup." Sound and The Chosen One now move into the Top 24 in the Order Of Entry.
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#115
30th October 2019, 11:13 PM
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Results of Cup nominees in today's Bendigo Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4aci3e41zc
Nominees for Saturday's Lexus Stakes/Hotham Handicap:
The position in the Order of Entry for each is actually two less - unless the appeal that Charlie Appleby is talking about making regarding Marmelo is successful. Surely Youngstar and Neufbosc don't run in this..... If the victor of the race is a Melbourne Cup nominee (there are two in the field who are not) and takes up the ballot exemption, then 24th in the Order will miss out. Sound23 and The Chosen One24 are on the same handicap and within $7000 in eligible prizemoney winnings. The final runner in the Cup field might come down to placings in this race: 1st $180,000, 2nd $54,000, 3rd $27,000, 4th $13,500, 5th $7,500, 6th $6,000, 7th $6,000, 8th $6,000. Yesterday True Self's connections announced they wouldn't make a late entry for the Lexus and rely on attrition to get into the field. They were in 29th then; what did they know!?  Red Galileo has also withdrawn from the race, though he was in 33rd and it wasn't of great concern. This is exhausting...
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#116
31st October 2019, 10:29 AM
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Talk of legal action from the Hughie Morrison camp regarding Marmelo's forced withdrawal. Understandable as it costs a fair whack of change to get a horse out here for what may amount to be just a holiday.
You can listen to his interview on RSN this morning here: https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=454314 In it he claims the world's leading expert in the "condition" for which he has been turfed out was consulted and says that there is no issue. The areas of concern from the CT scan may have been with the horse for months, if not years: time in which he has comfortably raced without any problems being evident. Part of the issue might be that there are only 3 of these standing CT scanners in the world. It's only just been put in place at the University of Melbourne's Werribee equine clinic, costing 1.3 million dollars. Ideally what should occur is that current scans are compared to previous ones to highlight areas of change. I know that if I were to have a scan of my foot, it would likely pick up evidence of a bunch of fractures - but these would have happened decades ago. I'm not sure what model machine they're using, but given the scarcity of them and the quoted price, I would imagine it is a 4-camera version of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RJZtGGedwU. It only takes 30 seconds to do a full scan. The manufacturers recommend charging clients between $700 and $1000 per scan. That's the advice to vet clinics they're hoping to sell the item to, to recoup the cost (approx. four scans per week). Honestly, each racing body should park at least one of these in each capital city and registered horses should have to be scanned there every couple of months: no recent scan and they can't race. I also don't think we'd be too far off from AI being able to compare scans and automatically note areas of concern.
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#117
31st October 2019, 10:42 AM
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Marmelo's part-owner John O'Neill with his take on the events of the last 24 hours: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...i=1000455537340
Godolphin travelling foreman Chris Connett with his take on Ispolini's withdrawal from the Cup: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...i=1000455537339 Racing Victoria's GM of Integrity Jamie Stier discusses the reasons international gallopers Marmelo and Ispolini were scratched: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...i=1000455537338
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#118
31st October 2019, 11:03 PM
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Getting hard to keep track but we're now down to 37 candidates with both Angel Of Truth and Raheen House dropping out of the race.
...at least they weren't horses I'd already written a profile on... Southern France has drifted out to $26 now. Hunting Horn out to $34.
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#119
1st November 2019, 01:07 AM
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 Twilight Payment
6yo B Gelding
Teofilo (IRE) - Dream On Buddy (IRE) [By Oasis Dream (GB)]
24s: 5-9-5
Owner Lloyd Williams and trainer Joseph O'Brien join together again, as they did to great success in 2017 with Rekindling. O'Brien hasn't long been Twilight Payment's trainer though, just in his last race, with the horse switching from John Bolger.
His last race wasn't especially impressive, though he was in good company there: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA In the Irish St Leger he finished in 7th position 6.25L back. It wasn't quite as bad as it looked though with Search For A Song surprising the field and going on with it after sneaking away with a lead. Only Kew Gardens was able to bridge the gap somewhat, and then soon after came 'the also-rans', all finishing within 2.5 lengths. Among this bunch were Southern France, Cross Counter, Master Of Reality, Latrobe and Twilight Payment. They were all at level weights here but there will be some changes for the Cup. That's not the case with respect to Latrobe, but Twilight Payment will otherwise be 0.5kg better off against Southern France and Master of Reality, and 2.5kg better off against Cross Counter.
Williams wasn't that disappointed in his performance, claiming that he needed the run and had not long switched stables. There may be some argument that he didn't enjoy the conditions either. The ground wasn't effected much (conditions only changed from Good-to-Firm to Good after the race), but there was torrential rain just ahead of their run.
His three preceding races, each also over 2800m, are the ones that bear looking at. They seem to show that there's not much between the Williams runners.
Twilight Payment vs Master of Reality: -1.75L carrying 0.5kg more and +5.25L carrying 1kg more
Twilight Payment vs Southern France: -0.75L carrying 0.5kg more and +3.25L at level weights
Twilight Payment vs Latrobe: +nk at level weights
Bonus:
Twilight Payment vs Mustajeer: -1.4L and +3.5L, both at level weights
The Curragh Cup was his best performance and that was held over the same course as the St Leger Stakes. The most I can find of the race is here: https://www.racingtv.com/news/twili...ger-and-manning. What's different between this and the St Leger Stakes? He's leading in this one (by 3 lengths at the midway point per a race comment) and he's also well into his campaign. His record has him at 0 wins from 10 first or second up races. In 8 of those he placed, but one was when he was still a maiden and the rest were only 5-8 horse fields. Is that a character of the horse, or by virtue of his previous trainer's programming? We don't know...
His official Irish rating jumped to 113 after his last race but that presumably was only due to those he finished around in the St Leger Stakes: 5 lengths away from where it would have mattered. The previous 2 years has seen his rating hover between 105 and 110, which consequently seems a likelier estimate. Particularly for a mature horse.
His Dosage Profile is (1-4-15-6-0), with DI 0.93 and CD 0: 3600m looks the ticket. He's had 3 runs over the Cup distance with 1 win and 2 placings from 3 attempts, all at black type. His Conduit Mare Profile also indicates the longer, the better: (2-7-2-9-10) with Speed 9, Stamina 19, Index 0.42 and Triads (11-18-21).
His past race record looks impressive with some big names popping out and he seems to mix it with Lloyd's other runners when conditions favour, but you feel that if something wonderful were to happen in his career, it would have already happened. His current odds are $61, which do seem a little high though. Somewhere between the Latrobe ($17) and Southern France ($34) marks seems a better estimate.
He looks a bit dour (only Ethereal has won with a higher Stamina figure). I find it hard to picture him running the leader down in the straight but I could see him leading into the straight and having to be run down. You'd think given the size of the field that it would be difficult to get into that position firstly, and that there then would be someone who had had a cushy enough run to have enough in the tank to overhaul him. While he could sneak a place if conditions suit, I'm more inclined to think he'll finish around 10th.
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#120
2nd November 2019, 03:13 PM
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Results from the Hotham Handicap by Cup nominees:
Downdraft wins and is into Tuesday's Melbourne Cup with his ballot exemption. Following the forced withdrawals of Marmelo and Ispolini, and the scratching of Angel of Truth, he was in 24th so needed to protect his position. It's been announced that he has not earned a penalty. Angel of Truth ruined everything. Check out this alternative timeline: After Marmelo and Ispolini were turfed by stewards, Sound was 23rd in the order and elected to skip the Hotham. The Chosen One in 24th needed to run, with the winner otherwise bumping him from the Cup. Both he and Sound were on the same handicap with Sound just ahead with $248,489 of eligible winnings. The Chosen One was close behind with $241,000. He just finished 5th and won $7500, taking his eligible winnings to $248,500. He should have jumped ahead of Sound in the Order and would have made it into the Melbourne Cup field by just $11. But Angel Of Truth wrecked it on Thursday. Sound could withdraw from the Hotham as he was guaranteed a Melbourne Cup start. Don't know why The Chosen One ran... Downdraft couldn't leap ahead of him in the prizemoney stakes by coming 2nd. If another horse won the exemption then it would have been Downdraft missing out on the Top 24. Final declarations, along with rider notifications, are due by 4:30pm today. The barrier draw is set to start at 5:30pm.
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