Geez, I wish the bookies went by the seedings. Would be great if Justine was 10th in the betting!!!

Yep, I also wish that was the case Sportz.

Funnily enough Henin-H probably has one of the more difficult First Round match-ups as she plays the tricky Conchita Martinez.

Generally very little value on the favourites during the early rounds of slams as every man and his dog piles on the 'name' players. I'll therefore be looking to pick a few upsets with a view to making a profit across the selections.

In 2003 and 2004 the bookies favourite won 82 of the 128 First Round matches at Roland Garros. Thus favourites won approx 64% while dogs went 36%.


Krajicek v Hantuchova
Round 1

Both players will ahve to be at their best to win this as my ratings have them evenly matched coming into this game. Clay is Hantuchova's least favourite surface and she's very beatable on the dirt. Krajicek was raised on clay and while inexperienced, she has a 16/5 record and certainly has the game to win. Krajicek also has the advantage of 3 qualifying 'warm-up' wins while Hantuchova hasn't played since a first round loss in Rome. This is closer than the prices suggest so a value play on Krajicek.

Krajicek $2.50 @ generally available. HALF UNIT


Mamic v Raymond
Round 1

I rate Mamic a slight favourite here against the ageing yet very experienced Raymond. Raymond's only had the one game on red this swing - a first round loss at Istanbul - and she has a moderate 40/38 carrer record on the surface. Mamic is a clay specialist, and while a lot of her results have come on the Challenger circuit, she has a 81/35 career record. Raymond is a tough competitor and this is her 40th consecutive Grand Slam so mamic will have to be at her best, but I rate her a 56.2% chance so will take the odds.

Mamic $2.00 @ Bet365. HALF UNIT
(better prices at some smaller bookies)


Fedak v Likhovtseva
Round 1

I rate the ageing Likhovtseva a slight favourite here so the price on Fedak is appealing. Likhovtseva comes into this match in very average form. She's only played 3 games on red this swing - two of which she lost albeit to good players (Smashnova & Pierce). She does have plenty of experience and a 65/56 record but she's more of an all-rounder who prefers it a bit faster. Fedak is a stubborn player who gets a lot of balls back thereby forcing opponents to play a lot of shots. She has a 62/43 record and has quite good recent form. Fedak's a 46.7% chance in my book so I'll take her on price

Fedak $4.23 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


Schruff v Asagoe
Round 1

Asagoe is nothing special on clay and has a 17/20 career record. She comes into this match in ordinary form having lost her first round matches in Strasbourg and Rome. These were her only 2 games on red caly during this swing. Schruff is no world-beater but she has been in good form and has a respectable 75/64 clay record. She beat Myskina in Berlin, and while defending-champion Myskina is in woeful form, this still represents a good result. I rate these two fairly evenly - though a lot of Asagoe's form comes form green clay which is a faster surface. Schruff will have to play well but she's a definite chance.

Schruff $2.75 5Dimes HALF UNIT



Kirilenko v Birnerova
Round 1

Kirilenko is a future star who has been in good form and has a solid 21/12 clay record. She took a set of Henin-H in Berlin so she knows how to play. Birnerova is a basically a Challenger player who came through qualies. She's a clay specialist with a solid 52/35 record but has few wins against Top 50 players. It's rare that I oppose qualifiers in the First round but Kirilenko shouldn't have too much trouble today - she's got plenty of spirit and always plays to win.


Kirilenko $1.32 @ 5Dimes. 1 Unit


NOTES: I wouldn't be in a hurry to back Clijster's in the early rounds until the extent of her knee injury can be gauged. Nor would I be in a hurry to back Davenport (see preview post) as she's first up on red and has been on a break for a few weeks.

Bets 144; Won 94; Lost 50
Units Staked: 137 units; Won 15.04 units; ROI 11%

A rather poor start to Roland Garros. Things just didn't fall our way as Fedak and Kirilenko both had good leadsonly to fall short. While frustrating, days like this are all part of the game


Peer v Bartoli
Round 1

Bartoli is first up on red clay having not competed since Miami more than 5 weeks ago where she retired with a knee injury. This is the same injury that also forced her to retire twice in the month preceding Miami. She has a 23/23 record on clay and while Peer is better on hard, she's very quick on court and has the ability to make Bartoli run. peer has a 25/12 career record though a few of these games were on the Challenger circuit.

Peer $1.85 @ 5Dimes/Centrebet 1 unit


Beltrame v Spears
Round 1

Neither of these players are world-beaters but Beltrame is a specialist clay courter with a 58/43 record who has also won several Challenger titles. Spears is a hard courter with a big serve and little else. She's 1-10 on clay and very rarely plays on the surface.

Beltrame $1.45 @ 5Dimes 1 unit

Dulko v Mirza
Round 1

Mirza can certainly play on harcourts but clay is a different matter as she rarely plays on the surface. Most of her form comes form the Challenger circuit plus she's returning from injury and is only third up on red clay having being beaten in the Strasbourg qualifiers. Dulko, while rather temperamental, is a good clay player with a history of progressing a few rounds at Roland Garros.

Dulko $1.33 @ Sportingodds/Sportingbet 1 unit

Just noticed that I forgot to include the following:

Garrigues v Mandula
Round 1

Garrigues is in red hot form at the moment having just won Strasbourg. Both players are solid clay-courters and while Mandula came through qualies, she hasn't played prior to this since losing in the First round of Indian Wells nearly 2 months ago. She came through qualies in straight sets so she is obviously over her injury but on the other hand she was up against very average players.

Garrigues $1.40 @ Interwetten 1 unit.

Bets 148; Won 98; Lost 50
Units Staked: 141 units; Won 17.07 units; ROI 12.1%

A nice comeback last night going 4-0 for a good profit. We're now break even over the opening 2 days after yesterday's loss.


Razzano v Fernandez
Round 2

Razzano is in the best form of her career and while no superstar on clay (51/42 record), she has been playing well. Her only poor recent performance was a close loss to Vento-Kabchi in Rome. Fernandez can win this as she's a specialist clay-courter who came through qualies but nearly all her form is on the Challenger circuit. This includes some recent losses to very low-ranked players such as Kudryatseva who is ranked 429th. Fernandez must be given some credit for beating Panova in the first round though the Russian is very average on clay and in ordinary form.Razzano in fornt of her home crowd has
the momentum to win this.

Razzano $1.50 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit


Farina-Elia v Parra-Sontanja
Round 2.

In theory this a bit of a mismatch. Farina-Elia is a clay specialist with a 121/67 record who is in good form at the moment. Her recent shoulder problems are well behind her and she rarely loses to players of Sontanja's calibre. Sontanja can of course win but it would take an upset of major proportions as she hasn't been playing particularly well lately. Moreover, she rarely beats players of Farina-elia's class. You won't see betting at these odds too often but there's some value in the selection.

Farina-Elia $1.14 @ Pinnacle 1 unit
(You should be able to get better odds at Betfair)


Morigami v Sprem
Round 2

Sprem is the better player but she has been in very patchy form lately. A recent change of coach and personal problems that have made headlines in Croatia have seen her lose in spectacular fashion to some very ordinary players. Today will depend a lot on her attitude. She's strung together a few ok games lately but Morigami should not be underestimated. She always puts in a big effort and fights to the last point. She's probably the most capable Japanese player on clay and has a recent win over Vaidisova. Should be close.

Morigami $2.60 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Castano v Hantuchova
Round 2

A hard-courter with an average clay record up against a specialist clay courter who is prone to some patchy form. Hantuchova got past young up-and-comer Krajicek in the First Round and deserves to be favourite but she's not at home on this surface. Her recent 1:6 2:6 loss to the average Mamic is a better indication of her form though her opponent today is also known to throw in the odd shocker. However Castano shouldn't be underestimated as she has a 77/46 record on the surface, including a few wins over highly ranked players. Hantuchova's high glamour profile and hard court reputation often distort her price so there's some value in the Columbian Castano.

Castano $2.88 @ Stan James HALF UNIT.

Loit v Frazier
Round 2

Loit is a tad unpredictable but she's a clay specialist with some ok recent form (with a few average matches thrown in). I don't rate Frazier on red clay and am always surprised at her support. Her rcord stands at 25/28 and she rarely wins over good clay players. My only concern is Loit's up-and-down attitude but the home crowd and occassion should get her across the line.

Loit $ 1.83 @ Stan James 1 Unit

Bets 153; Won 102; Lost 51
Units Staked: 145 units; Won 18.69 units; ROI 12.9%


Another good night going 4-1 for a nice return.


Peschke v Peer
Round 2

Experience versus enthusiasm as 29-year-old Peschke meets 18-year-old Israeli Shahar Peer. Pesckhe, while at home on the dirt, is more of an all-rounder though her 57/33 clay record reflects her ability. She's in good form at the moment as demonstrated by her 6:0 6:1 demolition of Randriantefy in the First Round. Peer certainly has ability and will chase every ball as she's extremely quick. However she lacks experience on clay and while ahe has a 26/13 record, more than half of these wins came on the Challenger circuit in lowly C10's and C25's. Peer has lost to most of the quality opponents she has faced - though she's probably in the best form of her short career. This won't be easy for Peschke but there's value in her price.

Peschke $1.53 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit.


Medina Garrigues v Maleeva
Round 2

If everything goes according to the script, then Garrigues' current form should prevail over Maleeva's very up-and-down performance over the past few months. Garrigues has just won Strasbourg and put in solid First Round 6:0 6:1 win over Mandula. She's a tough player to beat because she gets a lot of balls back over the net and has plenty of patience and experience. Her opponent Maleeva has some claims. She's at home on clay and like Garrigues, is very experienced. However Maleeva's recent form has been rather patchy and her First Round win over easy-beat Fujiwara was a tad ordinary. She can win today but it would take a big form reversal or involve Garrigues beating herself. I can't see that happening as the Spaniard is sky-high on confidence at the moment.

Medina-Garrigues $1.50 @ SportingOdds/SportingBet 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)

Bets 155; Won 103; Lost 52
Units Staked: 147 units; Won 18.19 units; ROI 12.3%



A relatively poor evening with Peschke losing in a rollercoaster game while Garrigues managed a straight sets win. The final result was a half unit loss for the night.


Loit v Gagliardi
Round 3

Loit is a true clay-courter who had an outstanding season last year including back-to-back clay titles in Estoril and Casablanca. This year hasn't been so good with injuries hampering her preparation so her form has been patchy at times. Roland Garros is her 'home town' slam so crowd support and her solid Round 1 and 2 performances give her a lot of momentum. Gagliardi is a very up-and-down player. Her form was so poor earlier in the year that she returned to the Challenger circuit but even this met with mixed success. Her 85/72 clay record shows Gagliardi knows the surface but she hasn't beaten anyone of consequence for some time. I don't know if Loit will go much further than this but she should be too good today.

Loit $1.50 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit


Williams v Karatancheva
Round 3

Short odds but Williams is a very good clay player with a wealth of experience. There's a lot of hype about 15-year-old Karatancheva's potential but it's a big ask for her to win today. She's never beaten a player anywhere near Venus's class. Pundits may point to Venus's relatively ordinary performance against clay-court specialist Zuluaga in Round 2, but this doesn't mean much to me as Zuluaga is a class act who would probably beat Karatancheva as well. Karatancheva has only faced Asagoe and Bondarenko thus far - Venus is a big step up. I don't bet at these odds very often but value exists at both end of the spectrum so I'll take the price.


Williams $1.13 @ Ladbrokes 1 Unit
(I'd still take Williams at $1.11 as Ladbrokes price might not last. Betfair is the best option)

A big upset last night with Venus losing. The Loit/Gagliardi game is suspended
at 1 set a piece so I'll update the record after all games are complete. Last
night will record a loss even if Loit wins.


Groenefeld v Schiavone
Round 3

Groenefeld has the game to win this but she'll have to be at her best. Schiavone is a very good clay player with a lot of experience and she's had a solid tournament thus far. So too Groenefeld whose 6:0 6:1 demolition of Smashnova was truly impressive. She has plenty of shots and usually attacks. Schiavone on the other hand is quite happy to grind away on court for as long as it takes - she's very patient - so expect a close game but some value with the German

Groenefeld $2.56 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT


Golovin v Bovina
Round 3

Golovin is young Russian-born French woman with a high 'glamour' profile but clay is her least favourite surface. Her hardcourt results are impressive but she has a moderate 22/14 clay record. Golovin faced a couple of easy-beats in the first two rounds so this is her first real test and Bovina is a fairly handy player. She has a 41/20 clay record and has been in reasonable form over the past few weeks. Her one weakness is usually a drop in concentration but hopefully she'll follow on from her solid play in Rome.

Bovina $2.35 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


Llagostera-Vives v Dechy
Round 3

A tough match up for Dechy who's a little overvalued here. I have this game much closer as although she'll have home crowd support, Dechy's clay performances have been rather mixed of late. She had a very ordinary Fed Cup on clay, played quite well in Warsaw, while Berlin and Rome involved First Round exits to average players. She made the semi finals in Strasbourg - though she didn't meet any true clay-courters until Garrigues beat her. On the other hand Vives is in very good form at the moment having won Rabat (albeit a low-rated tournament) and having two competent wins thus far. She has a 99/74 clay record so has the experience to win. Should be closer than prices indicate.

Llagostera-Vives $2.65 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT
(better prices at smaller bookies)

NOTES: Henin-Hardenne took medical attention on court during her last game and later announced she's been suffering from back pain over the past few weeks (muscle strain affecting nerve). She claims it won't be a problem over the duration of this tournament but it certainly puts a question mark next to her name. It will be interesting to see how she performs against the in-form Garrigues

Llagostera-Vives $2.65 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


She's now $2.75 at Ladbrokes