This post has been deleted. Off topic. Flaming. No more posts like this thanks.

__________________
never smile at a crocodile -- don't be taken in by his welcome grin

Post deleted. Please stop posting nonsense flames. This has NOTHING to do with the topic. Please take careful note of this warning.

peter m,

You're welcome.

I assumed most people on here realised they were a joke, but unfortunately the author of such nonsense actually states he backs them himself.

I would hate to think that anyone else would follow suit and take them seriously, which is why I made the comment about them.

As i said, anyone that says he backs such nonsense systems, really needs to be totally ignored on all matters with punting.

Iomaca,
Thanks for the explanation. I too have Barry Blakemores's books, whilst I could understand what he's trying to say I don't know if his findings are totaly valid. Reason being he only factors the winners into his statistics so in any race there could be several other horses with the same ''fitness pattern" that didn't win which aren't taken into account in his final analysis.

I've found that the last three starts total average SP compared to todays price is a good guide, especially if todays price is lower. Not a method in itself and there will be several horses in a race in this category but it seems to be a fairly good indicator.

I see that you think they are all valid factors but some having a bit more weight than others. Good to know not to discount them totally.

thorns,
Interesting point re barrier draws, seems to be a lot of horses win and pay better prices from unfavourable bariers.

So, does anyone think that it's possible to make money on the punt, not necessarilly a full time income but at least extra money without a $20,000 plus bank and turnng over 100's of bets a week?

A poster on here called Kenchar said he was doing o.k place betting a while back but just aiming for a certain amount of units profit a day then stopping.

peter m,

The answer to your above question is quite simple. Does your selection method have a long term winning edge?

yes or no?

There's your answer.

Thanks lighthuman2010, as of now I haven't actually got a selection method , just looking at different things on paper and seing what proves to be valid or not, testing out ideas and theories, many of which I picked up from here.

Like the other posters said maybe there isn't a cut and dried method but you just have to look at a lot of variables and factors and take it from there.

I've mentioned before that I'm not an authority at all, quite a learner in fact but I do have a lot of patience and am not one of these guys who "have to have a bet'', I can quite happily do a years worth research into different things and not feel the need to have a bet.

Good on you peter m.

I hope you haven't picked up too many ideas from the hard mechanical systems that the likes of Darky post here. Because to be honest, that's the reason they are losing long-term.

There's a couple of realistic options for you to frame your own market.

1) Concentrate on 1 or 2 states only and do your own form/video study

2) Create your own ratings database

or even use a combination of both and bet the value.

But again, stay away from any nonsense mechanical systems which seems to be the common theme on this forum. It will only end up turning you into a bitter old man that gets offended by others success.

I thought this is a good example to have a discussion about.

Darky has selected 7 horses and asked for a minimum of $8 for any selection to be a bet to cover his cost of the 7 selections at level stakes.

But unless he has actually priced each horse at $7, there is no logic why he is looking for the $8 price.

Why isn't he looking to find value for his top few selections at their true price?

The letter "R "system of course was a a bit of fun but dont disregard proven form factors /fitness and value as per my post.
What I wrote in the very good method posted was just basic form factors that actually work in the long term.
Everyone knows or should know the basics of horse handicapping.
Anyone who cant understand the very basics should learn them first and in my opinion very quickly if they want to make a success of betting.

Probably the very best place to learn handicapping is through the research of Malcolm knowles (in my opinion the best racing researcher in Australia)

Or at the very least subscribe to a reliable provider like Warren Block of the Wizard.(If you buy the Wizard online $5.50 the other 6 days of ratings and asessed prices are provided free.)very good value from a top provider.

Cheers
darky

Darky,

Good to see you talking about serious aspects of betting now.

If you say you are using a solid handicapping method that has proven itself to have an edge long-term, the possible reasons causing you to still lose long-term are:

1) You're not betting just the value selections from the method (eg. you're eroding your value by betting like you did in the example I quoted above)

2) Poor staking/money management

Without knowing exactly how you run your betting, it is hard for me to help. But I would strongly encourage you to do some more research on the above 2 points.

Good to see you're now having a serious go.