Please, stop calling me Surley

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Cheers.

Cheers AP, I think I'll look a little further into it.

g'day Raven.
Your observations are quite correct.
Whether this is the result of crossmatching or just smarter markets I'm not sure.
What I do know, is that the markets have matured and much value has gone from favourites and longshots.
This is the general trend, not taking into account individual mispriced horses of course.
It depends on the pricing of the market, but there is definite value still in certain circumstances at certain prices.
It's just that favourite value has all but disappeared when taking them as a group.

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So let's have a play.

NEWC01 Fern Hill Went in at 1.96 and out at 1.76

CAUL02 Hot Spin (in 3.05 out at 1.1 )

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Hi AngryPixie

What do you mean by went in at 3.05 out at 1.1? Also, are you hedging or just having a free bet?

I'm giving this a go today and notice the far prices are moving all over the place. No sooner do I get myself set on a horse that the far price moves above the near price on occasions.

I've only done 4 races so far and all have been matched in running (a couple of races with 2 runners) but I'm needing to shift the lay bet up to try and match the far price.

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Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

So I'm using what I mentioned in that post of a few years ago.

Im backing (going in) the only horse in the field that has a far price below 2 at the 5 minutes before start point, and placing a keep hedge (going out) at that far price. If the total traded on the market is below $30,000 I'll wait till it reachs that amount and use the near far figure then as mentioned above. Added that bit today.

I don't care if the price jumps around after. I don't change anything.

My lay wasn't matched on Hot Spin so it was a nice win bet for me.

This is very speculative and I suspect it will work better early in the day. You could possibly forget the hedging bit and just use the numbers to back.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

WODG01 no bet as two runners with a far price below 2 at the $30,000 point.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

NEWC02 no bet as no runners below 2 at $30,000 point

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

CAUL03 Hoylonny is looking like a possibility.

Yes in at 6.4 out at 1.48 (bit dicey)

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I'll jump ship while I'm still ahead but you get the idea. If you look at the numbers and have a think about what they represent there's some interesting ways to profit from them.

Have fun

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash