Well thought out Brendon, and yes the other winner was Rock Home Late, up 3kgs from its previous run (beaten 3.5 lengths) 28 days prior. I'll re read your other comments tomorrow, when my head is clearer, just had a nice glass of sherry while watching a movie.

Paul

There are certain rules to handicapping for weight, but there is also subjective opinion involved that can affect the final weight given to a horse.


For those interested, here is a good article on handicapping by a professional handicapper, Mark McGrath who has been working as a member of the [Australian Jockey Club] Handicapping Panel for over 7yrs.

http://www.ausrace.com/art/handicapping.htm

I like the 3kg increase from the actual weights, or 2kg increase from the limit as the cutting off point.

When I looked closely at 4 races, I could see all kinds of variables (track cond, distance pref, etc..) sticking their beaks in and muddying the waters. But not too many won above the already discussed increase.

Lakonian had peaked against Shocking in the previous race. Three rides in a row with big class increase each time. 3kg was always going to drag it back to the field as it was difficult to see it improve on its previous race. Rock Home Late was also given 3. But there was plenty of room for improvement.

Maybe the lesson to learn is stay away (or lay) when there is a decent weight increase but with little room for improvement?

Rather that trying to work out all the ins and outs of weight penalties, I'll stick to the KISS principal with weights. If a horse goes up more than 2kg I leave it alone.

I like the old saying: 'When one tries to grasp too much [info.], it's easy to end up with nothing'.

Crash, just a simple, unrelated to racing, but very very apt example.

Test yourself everyone:

Are you a person, who will grab every item he needs for the day's work as you go out to the car in the morning and drop some of it trying to shut-open the door?

(works equally well coming back from the supermarket)
if the answer is yes, change!! because you will do it in every aspect of your life, without noticing it!

I agree with you on the 2Kg "leave alone principle", if the handicapper could allocate weights in a wider range it would be easier for us.

Good luck

The plot thickens...! Brendon I cant argue with your comments on that race won by Shocking and so forth. Trouble is I never buy a newspaper and therefore cant really go back and look at full fields on certains days. I used to religiously buy the Sportsman years ago every friday and toss it on top of all the rest, along with the sunday paper results page. Time and time again I would think of a new brainwave and out would come all the sportsmans again.

Now I just use the net. But having said that I once went through all my bets, looked at various things and the 3kgs rise was the thing that stood out. (along with the 21 days), so I just stick to that. Looking again at last saturdays 24 races, apart from the 2 winners that went up 3kgs, there was another 2 winners that went up 2kgs. All the other 20 winners went up less (or down). So I guess it is just ones comfort zone as to where the cut off point is.

Paul

Another KISS simple is defining class: Up in race prize money , up in class. Down in race prize money down in class. Like my weight rule, it's not alway accurate but mostly it is and saves a lot of effort and time.

Fully agree with 2Kg rule it's a GOLD rule and also, not greater than $30,000 increase in race prizemoney is also another GOLD rule.....there are a few others that form the basis of a lot of winners.

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Apart from those 2 factors, I would think another 3 "gold" factors with a mechanical type system would be winning last start; the days since it raced; and the win/place strike rate.

Paul

Side thought, the Unitab ratings are based on weight so see if the 100 pointers go up or down by x amount of weight, could give a base figure to look at.