Never heard of her. Whats the site reference?

any feedback on front-runners who lead the field almost to the winning post, then due to lack of stamina fade and the whole field almost beats them yet next time out, win the race. front -runners form often reads more changeable than back -markers

ho ho ho, LOVE it!

You have brought up a good point here horsewatcher and the fade bit and being swamped by the field is often true.

However, I'm talking another kettle of fish. What is usually happening in what you describe is in races with more than one leader who end up knocking themselves out up front setting the race up for the mid-pacers and or backmarkers.
If it is a lone leader who is swamped, it's almost always because it is being ridden by a [usually an inexperienced apprentice] jockey who is a poor judge of race pace.

Put a good senior jockey on a lone leader and there is no way the horse will knock up over the distance. In fact the jockey will slow the race down as much and for as long as possible [not good for backmarkers who need the pace on], and then just sprint away from the turn and be hard to catch over the short distance left to the finish post.

Anyhow, in the list of horses I've tagged on the previous page who race today, the ones marked [L] leaders are all lone leaders in those races.
The potential is there for them to win due to the tactics I've described. Of course there are many reasons they might be beaten too. The potential for the jockey to control the race pace though [a big advantage], won't be one of them.

The selection list is not from studied form on those races, they are just all the horses from the three cards who have the unique conditions I am talking about: More than one leader in the race for the backmarkers mentioned and being a sole leader in the race for the leaders I've mentioned. No other criteria at all. Took me about 15min. to do the list.

From this 15min. effort list, I'll do the race form and if the odds are overs in my opinion they will be firm win bets [I'm not really an e/w man]. There should be 3 to 5 bets and I'll probably have a couple of parley bets too.

This is not a tipping exercise. The list above is just to see how they all go from the minimal requirements I've outlined for backmarkers and Leaders.

Hopefully I might achieve a bit of interest to extend form study into the area of pace and how it can be exploited to the punter's advantage.

Oh yes and by the by. The backmarker Ice Chariot whom I mentioned earlier I'd won on [$17w] a year ago when I kicked off with this method, is in the same race again today in Brissy [a lot of kiwi horses over here though that are hard to line up]. Same barrier 14 too!

Having a closer look at the form of the above races, these have good chances I think but Brissy is a hard day for most races. 'Jest for Fun' was a Mid-pacer so he's off the above method list.

Sat. 12/5/07
Melb.
3/3 4912 Okay Oky (5) [B] No win bet as will be too short for my liking.
8/2 0x58 True Courser (14) [B]*


DOOMBEN
2/15 1x36 Deception Bay (13) [B]* [best bet of the three races I think]
3/7 1973 Primal Impulse (12) [B]
4/10 2173 Chabeli (14) [L] should cross to lead.

MORPHETTVILLE
7/13 6554 I'm A Goody (9) [L]

5 bets here with a few parlays for r3/r8 in Melb. and r2/r3, r2/r4 in Brissy. Hopefuly I'll come out OK on the day and if not, well it won't be the first time I've looked sillly.

Well there go my Brissy parleys. I couldn't believe Boss's poor ride. Why in the blazes did he not sit at the tail instead of immediately moving up to mid-field? He was on a backmarker for heaven sakes, not a mid-pacer!

lost confidence is bossys judgement sometime ago, he probably gets it right more often than he does wrong, but thats not good enough for someone with his talent

they all look like champs & masters of the universe when riding out & out freaks, but there seems to be only one current jock that can consistently turn an average nag into a winner

I'm still alive in my Melb. parley. I couldn't believe $ 2.60w on Okay Oky. I thought it would start odds-on.

Bets:
DOOMBEN
2/15 1x36 Deception Bay (13) [B] unp.
3/7 1973 Primal Impulse (12) [B] 28.80/5.50 e/w [3rd. Took an e/w at a price that was way, way overs]
4/10 2173 Chabeli (14) [L] should cross to lead. [missed the jump and got lost out the back].

MORPHETTVILLE
7/13 6554 I'm A Goody (9) [L]

Melb.
3/3 4912 Okay Oky (5) [B] win. Took the $2.60w price. Should have been odds-on.
8/2 0x58 True Courser (14) [B] 4th. took an e/w at odds.

A very disappointing day but I wouldn't judge the method by it. It was a very odd day in most states.