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#11

7th January 2012, 04:30 PM

UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline

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Quote:

Originally Posted by woof43

Until you have classified how each Favourite became the public favourite (by a variable or combo of two) and then the strength of "gap" between the 2nd Fav. basically you will never know.

But to answer your question wagering bias does occur but not how your thinking.

Best tip
Start handicapping your fellow punter not the horses. In wagering there are only a few strong variables at play

Joe Public will play those types (per variable and gap strength) of favourites over and over the same way day in day out.

What a very insightful post. Woof43 could you elaborate a bit. This is something I never ever thought of (I guess in a round about way maybe).
Can you give an example of a race and the variables one should use? How do you rate your fellow punters (overbets, underbets) ? Any insight would be very interesting.

#12

7th January 2012, 04:45 PM

norisk

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seconded

#13

8th January 2012, 04:25 AM

Bhagwan

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Posts: 2,428

The stats show that the average price of the Fav in the 8th race is higher than

the 1st race & corresponding races there after, on the day.

One would approx break even targeting the Fav on the last race betting level stakes.
The SR is approx 24%, yet its av price is around $4.00 mark.

This 24% SR on the 8th race is a lot lower than say race No.1 onwards

The average price increases on a sliding scale from races 1-8.
and its SR drops from races 1-8 correspondingly.

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#14

8th January 2012, 08:53 AM

The Ocho

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I've tried to look all over the place (and I know I should know this

) but what is the generally accepted statistic/strike rate of faves for both the win and the place?

I thought it was 33% and 66% but then some have said 30% win. I still don't know the place percentage though.

Any one know?

Thanks.

#15

8th January 2012, 10:20 AM

Bhagwan

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Approx 64% for the place where there are not dual favs

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#16

8th January 2012, 11:31 AM

The Ocho

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Thanks Bhagwan

#17

8th January 2012, 12:20 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Here's a breakdown win and place % for favourites by race and Win POT %.

Code:


Race 1 35.95% 66.71% -13.73%
Race 2 33.95% 65.12% -13.86%
Race 3 33.56% 64.40% -11.86%
Race 4 31.94% 62.97% -13.72%
Race 5 30.96% 61.89% -13.39%
Race 6 30.15% 60.57% -12.23%
Race 7 28.20% 58.86% -14.95%
Race 8 27.73% 57.83% -14.10%
Race 9 26.73% 56.67% -15.33%
Race 10 26.36% 56.33% -12.85%

All Races 31.54% 62.27% -13.50% 

*12 years Metropolitan, Country and Provincial data.

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#18

8th January 2012, 01:00 PM

The Ocho

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Thanks CP. The faves sure do head downhill strike rate wise in the later races however, as said in the thread, the prices may then rise to compensate?

#19

8th January 2012, 02:13 PM

Mark

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Location: Qld

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All been done before and is very useful to know, but will the majority put this knowledge to use?

#20

8th January 2012, 02:26 PM

darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline

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I,ll hazard a guess and say NO.

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