Shaun
Page 6 1st March
http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...91&page=6&pp=10

I just reread it. The fav to return a higher amount.
Beton

beton your making it too easy for all the lurkers.

Anyway page 6 didn't work for me as I sort my threads differently so it might not be page 6 for you Shaun but im sure you can work it out. But benton is right that is the correct post I was talking about.

After a bit of cogitating we come up with Plan B (all the other plans were lowercase and thrown out)
Each race has different dynamics. However each factor has only marginal variance to the favorites winning strike rate. Except odds and field size and as Chrome Prince also brought to light – firming horses. Class, track , distance and weather only vary by one percent. Over the various prices for the favorite the strike rate goes from >80% at $1.20 to <20% at over $5. From 5 runners up to 24 runners the strike goes from 86% down to 11.8% over all the price ranges.
Our plan is to automate this. To do this I must either attach the betting bot to a data base or I produce a chart which gives us the historical averages of each ranked horse in each field size in each price range. School is still out whether we only do from $2 and 8+ runners or do every race.
Example field of 8 in the >$2.00 to =$2.50 range.
1st rank..38.31%..$2.61..lay $161 for $100+ win This will always be unders.
2nd rank..24.44%..$4.09.. lay $309
3rd rank..13.80%..$7.24..lay $624
4th rank..9.40%..$10.64..lay $964
5th rank..5.72%..$17.48..lay $1648
6th rank..$19.46..$19.46..lay $1846
7th rank..1.94%..$51.60..lay $5160
8th rank..1.16%..$86.21.. lay $8621
This range may have to be split up as the fav has a 6% range over this 50 cent range. The maximum rate is 0.5% and $200 (lay $20000). Because results show that even rank outsiders have at least a 1 in 200 chance.
The percentage figure is the average strike rate for the range, the monetary figure is $100 divided by the SR or the breakeven point without commission. The SR figures are from tote. Plan 1 is to lay the horses at these ratios when it is a 8 horse race and it looks like the SP of the fav is between $2 and $2.50. If it is a 12 horse race or in a different price range then a different chart is used. Plan 2 loads the first rank by 20%, second rank by 15% 3rd rank by 10% and fourth rank by 5%. Plan 3 is a bit more complicated and requires checking for firmers which requires three different charts depending whether the fav is steady firming or drifting. To start Plan 2 may be the go.
The thinking of this instead of laying all for $100 is as follows.
These are the statistical averages. They have the weight of numbers with the selections by the masses. The adage is bet overs and lay unders. By betting to these rates if the price you get is less then you bolster the unders. If the price you get is higher then you limit your overs.
The chart can be in excel. No problem there I have the data extracted already. The bot will have to tell the number of runners and ascertain the potential SP and tell the excel program. The excel program will give the various amounts to the bot to lay. In the future it may be prudent to extract the data from a database.
Devil advocates please take a number and line up. I am a big boy and will take the flak
Beton

This could be done with visual basic in excel connected to Gruss Betting Assistant.
We can get the size of the field and the last traded price of the favourite.
This info is already pulled from Betfair.

Would take a bit of work. I'd suggest trialling it for a while using a chart you make up depending on price and number of runners, and then either we can take a stab at coding it, or I have a programmer who could do it from Gruss who has done work for me before, he's not cheap but he is reasonable and will do everything to make sure it's all correct.

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I have to brush up on my excel then

I could do it if i understood what you are trying to do.

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I may be wrong, but you appear to be looking at the longer the price the bigger the payout or the bigger the liability. if this is true, you won't last a week. For layers, the profit is in laying the shorter priced runners.

It depends on the prices you get and the advantage you have.
If there is no % advantage long term it doesn't matter what liability you have, you'll lose.

For example, the Favourites up to $3.00 for one method I have, there is no advantage, it is breakeven for me. So it makes no sense to have them biggest liability.
This includes all odds on favourites.

Let's say my advantage is in the $4.00 to $8.00 range.
It makes sense to have these as my biggest liability and everything else is a win or skinner.

I do agree, it makes sense not to have outsiders as your biggest liability.
You'll come unstuck in a big way, unless you are selective and ave an edge.
I think the difference between Mark and myself is that he works at getting an edge, I work solely within the confines of the market and don't try and better it, because when it goes pearshaped, I lose more than win

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Thanks Chrome Prince and Shaun. I will try to sort out the charts first. Once I have done that I will meet you Shaun for a quick chat. I am assuming that you are based in Perth. We will need you Chrome Prince once we test the plan.
Mark thanks for your comments Quote "I may be wrong, but you appear to be looking at the longer the price the bigger the payout or the bigger the liability. if this is true, you won't last a week. For layers, the profit is in laying the shorter priced runners." Unquote. I am not trying to do this. I am trying to follow your advice. (1) Lay to a target amount. Your earlier post a couple of months ago was to lay the fav to pay $120 the second fav for a bit less etc and then lay the remainder to pay $100. (2) in another post you say to make a book. This is what I am trying to do. I am also trying to combine these into an automated system. The high laying liability is only a result of having a target payout figure of $100.

Instead of just accepting the available odds at the time of placing the laybet I am saying that in the case of the third fav "When the odds of the first fav is between $2 and 2.50 and there are ony 8 runners, historically the third has only won 13.8% of the time. Thus I am only going to lay an amount that reflects a 13.8% SR ($7.24 0r $6.24 lay liability). If the third fav is only paying $5 then this is unders and we will be laying more on this horse than we would have if we had been just targetting $100. Similarly if the third was paying $8.50, this would be overs and we have limited our exposure. Overall having more on the unders and less on the overs and a 100% market. In each price range the fav is always under"

Instead of looking at one race and finding profit, I am looking at 100 races and finding profit. Hopefully with a little in every race. I fully understand that the majority of the profits are in the shorter end that is why we will set up with Plan 2 first.

My database says that no horse more than 17th rank has won. But it is still possible so we limit the max liability to 1 in 200. Past 10th rank there are very few winners. Once I have compiled my charts I will address this end. I am definately not trying to boost this end. I may even have to restrict this end to restrict the liability because it is scary.

I hope this clears up my thought pattern. I welcome all comments because I would sooner be shot now than shot financially.
Beton

Thanks Chrome Prince for your latter reply I will get to it later. came while I was posting