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  #11  
Old 10th July 2002, 09:07 PM
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4-5 hours work for $5-20 is not very good.
Works out at $1-$5/hour.
That's less than Macdonalds!!!!

You also have to risk at least $500 to achieve this.

Crazy Clint picked 7 winners from 16. Much easier to make money by selecting winners rather than chasing losses.


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  #12  
Old 10th July 2002, 09:18 PM
becareful becareful is offline
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Bert - If you have a look at my bets above you can see how I got to 1150 loss. After that $3.70 bet (unfortunately I do not have Austext so was relying on Unitab internet site for that race) the bets were 8, 17, 18, 38, 54, 33, 60, 114, 119, 180, 180 and 165 - most of the damage was in those last Belmont races.

Lambrussa - Yes Bert's system does require you to increase bet size as your losing streak continues (basically you are always aiming to win back what you have lost plus $5. So if you are down $500 and the next runner is a $10 chance you would be betting around $56, if it is a $5 chance you need to bet $102 - this is where you get into serious trouble very quickly if you have a long losing streak.

Basically as I see it the system is simply based on having a large enough number of selections each day that you are almost certain to have at least one win, combined with a low goal so your first bets are small (stops things getting out of hand too quick), a large bank to cover your losing streak, and balls the size of a bull to keep increasing your bet when you are losing big time. The staking/target plan is nothing special (any person with a knowledge of Excel could knock that up in a few hours) so you are really just paying for the selections - and as you say they don't look like anything special.

My advice is to save your money - if you really like the sound of the system then work up your own spreadsheet for the target betting and put in your own selections. But I wouldn't do it because any increasing staking plan with no limits is just too dangerous.
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  #13  
Old 10th July 2002, 09:28 PM
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If anyone out there wants to trial this type of staking on Clint's Crazy selections go ahead. You've have made your $5 profit after only a couple of bets. Sure beats paying money for selections which at best can only be described as "ordinary".

You can then put the money saved from not paying for tips into your "mortgage" as Bert suggested.

One thing I've learnt from punting/investing is to cut your losses short and let your profits run. Bert seems to think the opposite is true.

Sure you have to take a profit at some point - but a $5 profit is miserable. I've made $2-4,000 some days. Those days sure make up for plenty of losing days.



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  #14  
Old 10th July 2002, 09:28 PM
Big Orange Big Orange is offline
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Bert,

I'm sure the forum members are grateful for you providing an excellent demonstration of how desperate, loss-chasing, target-betting plans can do nothing to inject any value into poorly made selections.

Whether or not you busted your bank today (it looks like you did), it is clear that it is not a viable method. If you have to grasp at straws and claim an extremely marginal selection as the only difference between a tiny day's profit or a massive bank wipeout, then something's not quite right.

And you want people to pay you for this?
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EVERYONE'S A WINNER!!!
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  #15  
Old 10th July 2002, 09:53 PM
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Hi Be careful
Ofcourse I was watching Unitab as I bet via internet on my account and the price is still still there NOW if you want to have a look

the bets were 8, 17, 18, 38, 54, 33, 60, 114, 119, 180,
180 and 165 -
Those bets is where you made the mistake .
The first bet showed more than $5 so we rounded it down to $5 and that makes the first bet only $2 NOT $8 like in your tally
The second bet was better than $15 so we took it as $15 , that makes the bet $1 not $17
and so on.
No wonder you ran out of bank.

Don't worry , this is normal with beginners, you are allowed to make mistakes , so before anyone puts money on , I want them to learn how yo work the spreadsheet, then and only they start with a small target such as $5 and don't try to be greedy .
it only takes a mistake to stuff things up , so learn your tools first.

Have you downloaded the spreadsheet again , that has the results on it now
regards Bert

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  #16  
Old 10th July 2002, 10:35 PM
becareful becareful is offline
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Bert,

That string of bets that I listed were the ones AFTER Belmont Race 3. ie. The $8 bet was on SR7 (showing 24.80 so $8 bet), then MR7 (showing 11.70 so $17 bet), etc. If you looked at my results you would see that - my first bets were $2, $1, etc. I did download your spreadsheet to compare and the results are similar to mine - we had some differences on starting price which gave slightly different bet sizes but nothing too major. Also I had a few bets you missed as my data said $4.20, etc when you had $3.90. Only major difference is you took the bet on PR3 and then stopped for the day - I did not take the bet based on my data and blew my bank.

I suggest you try putting in the bets for the rest of the day in your spreadsheet assuming you did not bet on PR3 and see what happens - very scary!

If anyone wants a copy of my spreadsheet to check my results just email me.
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  #17  
Old 10th July 2002, 11:03 PM
Equine Investor Equine Investor is offline
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The bottom line is that Bert claims to have cracked trainers methods etc. This is the whole basis of his plan, so whether you missed the one selection or not, he certainly hasn't cracked this particular area given his strike rate.
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  #18  
Old 11th July 2002, 08:24 AM
Reenster Reenster is offline
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Ever wonder how false favourites are created? Imagine we're well into one of these losing streaks and Bert comes up with a selection that (realistically) has a 5% chance of winning ($20). But Bert knows the trainer's habits. We're down $500+ for the day but this'll get us out and give us our $5 (enough to buy tomorrow's Sportsman but then we don't need the Sportsman when we have Bert so that's $5 profit woohoo).

The horse starts at $4.30 and is anchored by the weight of everyone's money (Doh).

Keep going Bert. You have nerves of steel and you're creating value (mmmmm value) aplenty for everyone else. For that I thank you.
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  #19  
Old 11th July 2002, 10:19 AM
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I just find it amazing that from the hundreds of people on Free trials and subscribers around the Country and some overseas, I am have not received any emails even asking about that price in question.
From what I can gather , this forum is mostly supported by people who say they are prof punters or at least bragg that they are.
This type of experience does not come overnight and I respect the fact that you think you know eveything there is to know , if you are indeed prof punters, this type of profession takes a lot of anitial studies.
With all that knowledge within this group, nobody seems to question that "be careful" could have made a mistake.
I don't expect anyone to believe me either, That is why I give a FREE Trial and only a couple of you did so, only the one that got it wrong is talking and without bothering to check it yourself you criticise everything that you don't believe or understand.
So what if it is different than what you were taught.
If you don't check it yourself and just want to knock new things, you will never really know if you are missing out .

I am sure that from my whole mailing list , if some people also had the result that be careful had , I would get flooded with calls and questions, instead I got some praises.

A couple of posts want Mathematical analysis , I reckon if you can come up with a few million dollars I might buy a cruiser and move around a few islands for a while.
These Math analysis only prove things if they are on solid Mathematical foundations.
You all throw up the question about the price drop if thousands of people bet on the same horse.
Mathematically that is correct and I agree that this could indeed drop the price.
But in real life it is not correct to assume that.
There are other factors involved, such as , the size of the pool and which states are they betting the most and in which states punters are following the money and in which states they are backing this one to beat the favourite if our is not.

There are more , but I am sure some of you know that , you just don't want to consider them, so you can shoot yet another system down, without even at least checking it out.

Some of you asked what my strike rate is ,
As some of the learned people here should agree, strike rate means nothing without getting the right price too and also have the capability to collect a profit.
those are the 3 things that matter most if you want to be successful in punting.
These 3 things combined are what is making my system successful, although yesterday the strike rate was only 1 in 7 (6 winners) from 44 possible bets.
that was a bad day and the prices were also shocking and still the third thing came up and made a profit.
Most days we have been collecting a profit within the first few races, and even if we have to wait sometimes for a few , the strike rate including short prices is still better than most tipsters although at short prices you are battling uphill.

So whatever systems you try , those are the critical foundations you need.
But to just judge a system on strike rate alone , will not prove that it is a good system.

I shall be too busy to get ready for the weekend now, so I won't be coming back here to answer any of you.
You know where to find me.
May the cash be with you
regards bert

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  #20  
Old 11th July 2002, 10:59 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Hi Bert....as i was the one that started all this i guess i should have my say.....if i ever come up with something that works remind me nerver to display it here......i know 90% of the people on this forum provide useful information and it is true if you find a money maker why sell it.....i have to hand it to bert in not backing down from his system and if it works for him good on it....yes i am haveing a look at the free trial today so we will see how it goes.....good luck in the future bert.....Shaun
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