Another Bhagwan edict was, "Don't Dutch if 1st Fav is over $4.00". Fact or Fiction?

A: Fiction

Of the last 55 > $30 BF Back price winners, the first favourite was less than $4 Tatts price, 82% of the time.
RP

Later in Feb 2012 Bhagwan amended his earlier edict and it became:
"Only Dutch if Fav is $3.25+". Fact or Fiction?

A: Part Fiction

Of the last 55 no. >$30 BF Back priced winners, 50% were > $3.25 Tatts price.

So we're starting to see a useful filter emerge. Confidence can be gained by only Dutching races wherein the Fav is $4.00+. this is confirmed by long term stats wherein Fav's $4.00+ only win < 21% of the time so the luck is more spread amongst the other horses.
It's uncanny that longshots appear more often when the Fav is an average of $3.00 (29% Win S/R). Anyone got a theory on that?
RP

I would like to be able to pick races where the favorite is less likely to win, but I have looked at many scenarios and haven't cracked it yet.

Hi Clive

One way to achieve your objective is to find a way to profile the types of favourites that are more likely to under perform. This is what I and most professionals that I know do. A few tips that might help are:

1. Avoiding back markers (especially when the likely early pace conditions are against them and more relevant in larger fields);
2. Avoid those that are ridden by jockeys who are over bet by the market place.

In respect of the first point you will need access to reliable speed maps (unless you are able to construct them yourself and in regards to point 2. you focus on each jockey by only considering those rides when they are expected to perform. Personally I use this data and measure each jockey on a short and medium term horizon.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Tried the new Dutching Bot at $5.00 stake today. No filters on any races, come what may! Dutching to approx 90% Max $30 BF Back.
18 smiles 3 accidents. Nett profit 87% of liability or $4.36.
There were two small losses associated with unmatched bets going SP.

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I've noticed today with two races, even though my Dutch had the winner I still lost about 13% of liability due to unmatched bets going SP.

With the bot you select the horses to Dutch, it does a calculation and returns a potential profit for you to approve. You hit the GO button, the bot fires but not all the bets are matched straight away. Some unmatched bets then go SP.
Example: The bot has staked a horse $41.90 @ $6.60 when bot fires. If unmatched BF gives you the SP price, in this case $5.17 but you're still staked at $41.90. Your Dutch is now out of kilter by $59.92.
There's swings and roundabouts, sometimes it works the other way.

Has anyone encountered this Dutch betting? Any solutions?
Cheers RP

only solution is bet even earlier so you can adjust or a much faster computer connection.

UB, because I'm Backing' is there a bot that can connect with a fixed price bookmaker and dutch bet? Their fixed prices don't fluctuate as much.
RP

there would be somewhere as a start try looking at rewardbet

Started my Christmas Club All Up yesterday. Found the perfect horse in "Van Hooligan" Ballina R3. 39 starts 0 wins 85 Rating L3S 829. $500 @ 231.69SP = $2.03. Stake today $502

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