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  #11  
Old 15th July 2013, 08:22 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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It also answers the question, is late money smart money?
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  #12  
Old 15th July 2013, 08:34 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Yep Chrome.
Will try the system out tomorrow.

Gees.It might actually work ?
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  #13  
Old 15th July 2013, 09:23 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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It comes down to certain money for certain price ranges and certain fluctuation percentages. You can't back all of them that move a bit, or you'll be left out of pocket.

e.g
3 - Magnifisio 2.25, 2.35, 1.8, 1.75 WON
7 - Dark Delight 1.6, 1.65, 1.5, 1.45 WON
6 - Monkstone 4.2, 4.2, 3.1, 3 2ND
8 - Midnight Glory 7, 7, 6, 5.5 3RD
1 - Hai Lil 5, 5.5, 4.6, 4.4 3RD
7 - Pillar Of Creation 10, 11, 8, 7.5 WON
10 - Brave Prince 15, 15, 8, 7.5 UNP
13 - Loot 'n' Run 6, 6, 3.3, 3.2 UNP
7 - Let's Be A Star 11, 11, 7.5, 7 WON
18 - Emblems 3, 3.5, 2.6, 2.5 3RD
4 - Cape Kidnappers 1.6, 1.6, 1.5, 1.45 WON
4 - Nude Secrets 6, 6, 5, 4.8 3RD
7 - Keep It Moist 8, 8, 5, 4.8 UNP
6 - Scalaire 10, 10, 7.5, 7 UNP
4 - Amiconi Originale 5, 5, 4.4, 4 2ND
5 - Natural Disaster 4.2, 4.6, 2.9, 3 UNP
5 - Angelology 2.7, 2.8, 2, 2.2 WON
2 - Beyond Infinity 7, 7, 4.6, 4.4 2ND
7 - Komodo 5, 5, 3.8, 3.6 3RD
10 - Value As 10, 11, 9, 8.5 WON

20 selections
7 winners
8 placings
Win Return at worst SP Fluctuation $29.85
POT 49.25%
35% Win strike rate
75% Place strike rate

Look for the most money at the shortest odds, and anything backed in from double figures into single figures.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #14  
Old 15th July 2013, 09:33 PM
stugots stugots is offline
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CP, is Scone one of your leaders tracks?

Might be a great pointer when such solid shorteners jump out & lead at your leader tracks.
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  #15  
Old 15th July 2013, 09:35 PM
ianian ianian is offline
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Default Who knows

I noticed that the 3 bigger winners opened at $10 or better and shortened in under $10 same as last sat and got rid of a lot of losses.
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  #16  
Old 15th July 2013, 10:20 PM
ianian ianian is offline
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Just read the names it is last sat daaa.
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  #17  
Old 15th July 2013, 10:46 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ianian
I noticed that the 3 bigger winners opened at $10 or better and shortened in under $10 same as last sat and got rid of a lot of losses.
Are we talking tote today at Scone?

LG
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  #18  
Old 16th July 2013, 06:28 AM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Fav number 12 eh.
Theres a system right there.

1 + 2 are 3

Choose the 1st 3 in the betting in races 1 - 3

The bet is the 1 that comes in 3 times in the betting.

Mein Gott I,m good to you blokes

It will be "Mein Gott" if it ever occurs Darky. A steamer is usually the 2nd fluc is less than the Open OR the 2nd Fluc matches the Open & the next one or two price flucs are less than the Open. e.g. 5.5 4.6 OR 5.5, 5.5, 4.5 OR 5.5, 5.5, 4.5, 4

I've yet to find a steamer that comes in 3 Price Flucs like 5.5, 5, 4.5, 4 not in the last few days anyway. Even if you Back the steamers they still only win about 30% of races.
Might have more success Backing them to run a Place and Laying them to not win.

RP
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  #19  
Old 16th July 2013, 07:44 AM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince


20 selections
7 winners
8 placings
Win Return at worst SP Fluctuation $29.85
POT 49.25%
35% Win strike rate
75% Place strike rate

Look for the most money at the shortest odds, and anything backed in from double figures into single figures.

Just to satisfy my curiosity , I did the exercise using rules:
If steamer odds/on Back for Win
If steamer not odds/on Lay to lose and Back for a Place

Result: 29% POT

Those longer priced horses brought home the bacon for the Backers. Might have been a different story if one of the odds/on horses failed to win?
RP
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  #20  
Old 16th July 2013, 10:39 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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To be honest I wont use this at all.
To wait for a horse to shorten before betting is ridiculous.
If my asessed price is $7.50 and its now $10 I accept the price greedily.

Imagine the other scenario.
"gee its $10 now .I better wait until its $3.

Lock me up in my little padded cell.
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