Further Merriguy:

I pulled out 100 cases of those megawinners (win or place) from this group and find a marked proponderance towards inside barriers.

The logical rationale is that we have two runners carrying the same weight but one has a better run than the other. The Radio Tab tipsters have assessed that a certain runner with a certain weight is a chance in its race. But another runner carrying the same weight has a better barrier and a better run home.

It is therefore a matter of physics. The question in any race is which of these animals can carry that weight over that distance fastest? In the cases I am considering, where we have two horses at the same weight (grouped together by the handicapper), the one with the better barrier has the advantage. That's the basis for the tips today.

I don't have a coherent system here. Just playing around with an interesting group of horses.

I start with the Radio Tab picks because they are useful in determining what weight group is likely to win a race. For example, if the Radio Tabsters pick runners 1, 2 and 4 in a race of 12 runners they are saying it is a topweight's race. They are usually right about that, even if its #3 that wins. If the Radio Tabsters pick runners 8, 9 and 11 then they are saying the winner should be among the bottomweights. And they are usually right about that. I find it useful.

Hermes

OK, I've codified today's selections into a set of rules:

Here's the plan:

We target the runners numbered sequentially to the highest numbered Radio Tab tip. If Radio Tab picks #11 then the target horse is #12.

However, if the target is the bottom weight, the next UP the list becomes the target. Eg. Radio pick is #11, the bottomweight, so #10 becomes target.

We move down from scratchings. If the Radio pick is #4 and #5 is scratched then #6 becomes the target.

The selection rule is:

If the target horse has barrier advantage over the Radio pick, select. If the Radio pick is barrier 8 but the target is barrier 4, the target horse is a selection.

However, two other rules apply:

If the target horse is rated 100 on the TABQ, select.
If the target horse is barrier 1,2 or 3, select regardless of barrier advantage.

Back each way.

I'II stick with this plan for a while and see how it goes. In my past race samples for these rules , 410 bets for $496 return, counting wins only. See how it goes over a week of live races.

Hermes

Maybe you were right Merrigum.

Yesterday 29 bets, wins = $23.50, pl = 22.70.

Today a profit on places:

25 bets for $36.40 pl.

Some good placegetters. See Kynton R8, Colac R8, Hobart R3, for example.

Hobart R3 is a prime example of what I am looking for. Notice the barrier. This horse was a long shot that had a lucky run. That's what I'm after. Roughies that get a lucky run and manage to get in the money.

I think these results are not bad considering we are hunting for megawinners and we must accept bad days and are trying a rough-n-ready filtering.

Still looking for better filters. Currently trying distance as a factor.

Persistent.

Hermes

Hi Hermes,

Well done on your interesting system. Another vindication for the irrational side of horse "selectioning"! I have some queries about your method I hope you might clear up. You stated:

/
If the target horse has barrier advantage over the Radio pick, select. If the Radio pick is barrier 8 but the target is barrier 4, the target horse is a selection.
/

If the target choice does NOT have a barrier advantage, what is done? Is the Radio pick the choice or is the race passed?

/If the target horse is rated 100 on the TABQ, select.
/
Does that mean if it rated 100, it is chosen regardless of barrier position?

When you talk about the "Radio Tab", I assume you are talking about the dedicated racing station (2KY in Sydney).

Thanks,

~Lenny

Hi Lenny,

"If the target choice does NOT have a barrier advantage, what is done? Is the Radio pick the choice or is the race passed?"

The race is passed. Apart from taking advantage of barrier bias the barrier rule is there as a device to cut the volume of races.

" Does that mean if it rated 100, it is chosen regardless of barrier position?"

Yes.

"When you talk about the "Radio Tab", I assume you are talking about the dedicated racing station (2KY in Sydney)."

Not sure what radio station. The TABQ website in Queensland has three picks labelled "Radiotab" - I assume in Queensland. I've never bothered to look into who makes the selections or how. I just know they have a good success rate and are a good starting point for considering a race.

------------------

As a spin-off from the above rules and continuing this line of research, consider this:

1. Any runner numbered below the Radiotab picks.
2. Barrier 1.

I've tested this on 605 new races now for $599.40 wins and $620.90 places. With another filter it could be a goer.

I tried eliminating longer races on the theory that barrier is more a factor in shorter races but the results didn't match the theory. On the contrary, the better priced winners came from longer races. Which is it? Is barrier more likely to play a role in shorter or longer races? I suppose there are longer races where there are several turns in which inside position would be important?


Hermes

The Radiotab tips are simply the tips of the racecallers that Radiotab uses.

It's important to note that these racecallers are not always the same as the racecallers that 2KY uses. As an example, today Radiotab had Steve Hawkins calling on the Gold Coast whereas 2KY used Alan Thomas. There were also different callers for Bendigo and Strathalbyn.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-01-07 22:42 ]

Thanks for that info sportznutz. I realize the RadioTab picks are a tipsters poll. I've checked it a few times against other tipsters polls and found they were much the same, especially in the first two tips.

I've been working on several systems based on the Radio Tab picks. As I say I think its a good place to start if only becausae the tipsters (usually) do their homework.

As you might expect the Radio Tab results are variable according to race meeting. Some meetings they don't seem to have a clue. Others they are spot on, very accurate. In the system ideas I'm exploring in this thread I'm looking for the days when they miss, even though they correctly figure that a low weighted runner can be in the money. They are usually very accurate about that. I use the Radio Tabs to divide races into groups: topweight races, bottomweight races etc.

I don't sneer at tipster polls. They're useful, even given that the tipsters will change from day to day and meet to meet.

Hermes

Nothing much in the meagre races of the latest few days. Today a small handful of placegetters among the losers but a decent winner from the 2nd barrier at Bunbury R3, $17.60/4.70 made the day.

Hermes

Hi all,

Thanks for your individual replies. Hermes, I hope this system idea pans out. As you use the RadioTAB for selection ideas, perhaps you might considering recorded their selections, the eventual winners AND the race type. Utilmately you may find a link between the races they are good at picking and those that they are not.

I am a big believer in "the right horse for the right race". This concept may have more to do with picking winners than even each horses ability (which is of course critically important). My notion is, ok, they have this demonstrated ability, but how likely are they to reach this ability in the current race, due to the type of race being run? It is at this stage I would consider circuit layout, going and running style.

I also thought I might comment on your barrier position question. Barriers have a big impact on short races, but only (in my opinion) if the race is NOT being run straight (i.e. there is a turn in the run). The closer the turn is to the finishing post, the more impact Barrier will have on a selection. Sprinters, I believe, will have an advantage on a circuit with a close to finish turn.

For longer races, as long as the turn is a fair distance away from the finish, the runners should have a fair chance to position themselves well (probably depending on jockey skill). The closer the turn is to the finish, the harder it will be for off pace runners to make their final charge (I feel). Sound right?

Thanks guys,

~Lenny