Ok thanks Tony. There are just a couple of things, and I bring them up for debate more than anything. I know where you are coming from with the 60% figure because I often feel the same way looking at other systems with unusual cutoff figures. But on the other hand why should a nice round figure command any more respect. I mean the great pyramid of Giza had to slope at 51 deg 52', not 50 deg. As for the longshot winners. Well if they came before my test period of June 2003, I'm prepared to claim them, but yeah, talk can be very cheap in this regard. We'll see what happens.

Gidday, Sobar. A system so finely tuned to what has happened has little hope of predicting what will happen ie it becomes merely an observation of the past rather than a predictive tool. (Mind you, this charge can reasonably be waged against all mechanical systems and I don't know why I waste so much time stuffing around with them.)
A system's rules also need be consistent with common sense and noone could logically argue why a horse with a 57% strike rate should have a better chance than one with say a 59% strike rate. Nevertheless you have to dry a line somewhere in the statistical sand and 60% is at least an objectively derived number through it being a metrically 'even' number rather than just some number that happened to best fit your data curve.
I don't know why the Egyptians picked such an odd gradient, but I know it was not because they found out it had worked for someone else in the past. And bricks in the sand do lend themselves to a bit more exact science than do horses in races.

As far as the long shots go, any system that relies for its profit on a couple of longshots spread over 5 years is to my mind a practical no-go zone.

Cheers

Tony

G'day Stebbo,

Have a play with these 3 master filters.

LS SP. 0--6.0
TAB No. 1--6.
LS Finish. 1--1.
Max LS Margin. -1. or -1.5 or -2.

Then maybe
Venue. SMBAW.
Day. 7.
Then what-ever you want to play with.

Beer O'Clock.

I don't want to comment further until you can give me or can confirm that your test results were before June 2003, because the period of June'03 to 11th Jan'04 was just a workshop session for me where everything was pulled apart. Also you have a five year database?
Why am I sometimes getting two posts. I only press the submit button once. Makes me feel like an idiot.
Also what's happened to Dink?

Sorry, that was for you Tony.

Sobar, my scan was from 6/1/04 to 2/1/99.

This is the system I alluded to above, a heap of bets and a marginal profit (more marginal than I had remembered), perhaps could be adapted.

Distance 1200 - 2000
Metrop all days of week
Career starts 1 - 25
At least 1 run sice spell
Last start winner by 1.5 length or more
Last odds 1.2 - 4 (a bit contrived, sounds better if you say 5/4 - 4/1)
Change distance 2200/100
Average Prizemoney rank 1 - 6.



[ This Message was edited by: Tony on 2004-02-19 18:18 ]

As far as the long shots go, any system that relies for its profit on a couple of longshots spread over 5 years is to my mind a practical no-go zone.

Could not agree with you more Tony! I picked up a couple of winners in the over $70.00 region and I remember them well. But betting on these longshots over time would have ruined a millionair!
Cheers.