Not disputing that this does happen, and the examples that La Mer gives indicates just that, but firstly I would want more than $5.50 for a horse that has so horribly been beaten of late.

Secondly, very few horses are able to turn around poor form and strike like lightning.
Going back into the archives of old form you find 2YO and 3YO form which is totally irrelevant to today's preferred distance and even racing styles. Some horses do not change, but the majority mature and often change racing patterns and preferred distance.

A lot of 2YO and 3YO just fail to recapture their zest later in life.

It does happen no doubt, but not often enough to warrant the exercise for mine.

[quote]
I would want more than $5.50 for a horse that has so horribly been beaten of late.

Chrome Prince: There are reasons why it started at only $5.50 - significant change of jockey to Nash Rawiller and the fact that it was a locally trained (Tatura) horse starting in the Tatura Cup (albeit at Seymour). Also it was an open affair - the $5 favourite was beaten over three lens at Wangaratta at its previous start and hadn't won for over 12 months.

As I stated, Walk On Ice was the class horse and this fact coupled with the lack of depth about most of the other runners overode any current form failures to a degree.

[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-04-19 16:13 ]

Where a horse is showing an improvement pattern, I normally allocate a (conservative) min / max improvement rate (for next start) depending on a number of factors including class and distance variations and the current (average) rate of improvement for that particular horse.

Where a horse is on the improve but recent ratings plus a normal improvement rate give a rating still considerably under best, I may increase the expected improvement rate or as a minimum allocate the max normal improvement rate.

My view of a horse that has all of a sudden improved sharply on recent form, and next start may be ignored by a lot of punters thinking it may have been a once-off or are waiting to see if the horse can repeat again, may be very different if my stats show that this horse is capable of even better.

My view of a horse that is in fine current form but going up in the weight with many punters thinking the handicapper has just about got it’s measure, may be very different if my stats show that this horse is capable of even better.

Also probably just a Perth oddity – part of the year at one track, the remainder of the year at the other. Some horses do perform better at Belmont, some do perform better at Ascot. Not uncommon to have more recent form at one track but now racing at the other, especially early each season. Some horse will have a reasonably short campaign at one course, spell and return at the other. I’ve lost count of the number of good price winners I have picked up, focusing more on previous ratings for the current course (which could be dated by some punter’s standards) as opposed to the most recent ratings.

Hope this helps stebbo.


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Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-04-19 18:24 ]

Thanks for that additional input Perth Placegetter, food for thought :wink:

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