Hi Darkydog,
The idea sounds logical & should produce some fine prices,
as long as at least one of them is paying $7.00+
Maybe another way of betting the remaining 2 selections is to bet 4 units on the one that one feels is the stronger of the 2 to win & then bet then bet the other , one unit to win.

Hi Racingnovice,
The idea you have tried (4 of the 5 tipsters ) will produce a lot of winners , approx 40% SR but what you will find , is that a lot will be prices on the shorter end of town ,which means you may find that one will be basicly breaking even ,so one has to only bet when the price is approx. $2.20+ at jump time. Otherwise no bet that race.

Hi Kenchar,
Thankyou for your feedback & observations .
I feel one has to have a sence of humour & a sence of fun about what we are all trying to do here.
The knockers are allowed to express an opinion like anyone else , I guess, but I dont see why some get so personal & offer nothing in return . .
Maybe it`s an inverse reaction to their own low self esteem based on fear derived from past failures which they are constantly reminded of , by those close to them.
Maybe I could be dead wrong , it`s just that we dont understand them . They are not trying to be wicked , it`s just their idea of fun.


Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

you are right bhagwan 2 of the 6 were odds on and i highly doubt if i would have backed them. The other 4 wernt 1 paid an amazing $4.80w $2.00p and another $3.20w. There is value there you just have to wait for it .

This is an interesting thread, and it leads me to a question: What is a good strike rate?

If you have a 45 % strike rate in your top 2, then you will have a 70% strike rate in your top 4. The market has a 75% strike rate in it's top four, so really no-one can expect to better that, because by definition the market always has the four best chances in the race. It always has the four shortest, therefore in the long run it ipso facto has the four best chances. Time and analysis of winning percentages compared to starting percentage bears that out.

So, if the market has the best strike rate out there, then what strike rate is good?

By the way this refers to a method that comes up with a top four in a race, not a method that comes up with the odd selection. A method that comes up with the odd selection can have - and often does - a better s/r than the favourite, which is 28%, however what I am talking about is a selection method. What is a good strike rate for a selection method? I know it is also dependant on price, but given that in order to have a good strike rate in your top four you must have favoured runners in there, but you won't always pick the top four favourites, what's a good strike rate?

What are some strike rates you guys have seen, used etc, especially in mechanical selection programs, ie the computer doing the form?

If you don't have the records of top 4 strike rates, here is a table below that lists what your top 4 strike rate would be based on the strike rate of your top selection:

1st s/r top 4 s/r
10% 34%
11% 37%
12% 40%
13% 43%
14% 45%
15% 48%
16% 50%
17% 53%
18% 55%
19% 57%
20% 59%
21% 61%
22% 63%
23% 65%
24% 67%
25% 68%
26% 70%
27% 72%
28% 73%
29% 75%
30% 76%
31% 77%
32% 79%
33% 80%
34% 81%
35% 82%
36% 83%
37% 84%
38% 85%
39% 86%
40% 87%
41% 88%
42% 89%
43% 89%
44% 90%
45% 91%
46% 91%
47% 92%
48% 93%
49% 93%
50% 94%

So essentially if you get a s/r of 29% top pick winners home in a selection process then you're going to get 75% in the top 4, etc.

What do newspapers generally get? What do ratings sellers get? Automated programs? You as an individual? The old lady down the street?

Bhagwan


Drop me am email at retireme@mailup.net

I bet you knew I'd bite Duritz. :-)

I'm working on NSW races at the moment using 1994 to 2002 to work out the system. On those races (33361) I get 28.63 percent winners, 18.70 percent seconds and 13.80 percent thirds. That's on races covered by the NSW Tab and it only produces 1.87% profit if you bet on every race which has greater than half the runners having had a start before.
Using that system to predict results for 2003 to present.
9409 races, for 27.86 percent winners, 18.81% seconds and 14.17% thirds for a 0.8% loss on turnover.

That's not exactly answering your question but I don't actually keep a record of what my second, third, etc choice does. I used to but they were depressingly low compared to the first choice and were just taking up cpu time to process.

BTW Good to see you back in circulation. You've been quiet of late.

KV

Duritz


What is the basis or theory behind those figures you have produced because they don't tally with what my system has.

I have top pick 28% strike rate, top three 60%, top four 68%. Not a long way of what you predicted but then again 7% is probably substantial at the bottom end of your selections.

Simply if your top pick wins say 20% of the time then your second pick must win 20% of those remaining 80 races, which is 16, your third 20 of those remaining 64, which is effectively 13 and your 4th 20% of those remaining 10, making a total of 59. I'll post a better explanation tomorrow.

And yeah KV I thought you might.

As a general figure , if one can have a SR of approx 25% with a mix of prices ,you are doing well, this will make a profit between 1-25% depending on the prices for that month.
It`s the short end prices that will kill us in the end if we consistantly take rotten vale to chance , that`s what the Great Done was all about.

With any system or form approach , do expect the unexpected run of outs of 20-25 before the next winner gets up , so its an idea to gear ones money management & ones head space around this reality .
It may take one month or 3 years ,but it will happen , it even happened to to Lengedary Don Scott where he made a massive loss in one year but recovered in the following year using his famous Weight Ratings ,betting to his accessed price against the bookmakers price.

E.g. Stop betting if one strikes 25 outs in a row ,then recommence once one gets up.
The median figure of outs with 25% is 15 outs , this means one should strike their winner within 15 bets 80% of the time. Maybe one could have 3 banks of 15 so one can attack aggressivly within those 15 bets.
Or make your bets really low after say 12-15 outs ,if one feels they are going to miss out on something.
Or structure ones bets to recover only half of the losses after 15 outs, until that winner gets up. Then go about recovering the other half.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

The maths behind the table I posted is as follows:

Say you're top pick has a 20% strike rate. That means in a hundred races, it wins 20. OK, so how many does the second pick win? Well, it must win 20% of those remaining races, because in those races, where the top pick is not going to win, it is effectively the top pick of the remaining field. So, it wins 20% of them, which is 16 of those 80. So, with your top pick winning 20%, your top two will win 20+16 = 36%. So, your third pick will therefore win 20% of those remaining 64 races, because neither the top nor second pick will win those, so it is effectively the top pick of the remaining field, and your top pick wins 20%. So, 20% of the remaining 64 = 12.8 (rounded 13) wins. So, your top, second and third selections combined win 20+16+13 = 49 races out of a hundred. Ipso facto your fourth pick wins 10 races, giving you a total of 59% winners in your top 4 if your top pick wins 20% of the time.

If your strike rate for your top chance compared to your s/r for your top 4 doesn't work out as the table suggests, then you must have a mic of rules which means that the more favoured market runners come out on top and the less favoured ones third or fourth, or vice versa if it's the other way.

That help?

Bhagwan,

for some reason you have not grasped what makes following tipsters a mug play. Their visibility and popularity means you will NOT get value, irrespective of the strike rate.

And I notice no one has bothered to post profit figures for tipsters to justify that strategy.

So I've just run my own test.

I examined the top 2KY pick.

Then as a control I examined runners with SP <= 3/1, but which were not in the top 3 2KY picks.


Tipped Untipped
44,203 11,007 - Runs
25.6% 25.9% - Strike Rate
91.7% 97.0% - ROT - best SP/NSW
85.7% 94.0% - ROT - NSW TAB


This should be emphatic proof that tips make far bigger losses than untipped runners with similar strike rates.