Race 1
Nice start to the day..had alittle eachway on Kantoshi and Admiral and collected enough for a few shouts at the bar...knew it was a hard race but i liked Admiral spy because of his form around Son of Dane who i like,,,just was concerned firstup over 1300m ,,,oh well hindsights a wonderfull thing.
Thought Birthday bash was way unders..and so was alitttle naughty who wasnt proven at the distance.

Race 2
Great result....got 10's and the race was run to suit him down to a tee...star of covet added nice value to the tri..
this race basically set me up for the day...its great when that happens because you can spend more time at the bar

Race 3
Slowly run race again..this basically gave no chance to yvonne , Tui song ect.
Thought when pentelikon was racing in the carpark that beadman might of pressed on towards the front but he didnt...and our sweet moss was just to strong....lost fairly big on Pentellikon

Race 4 .
No value about willy here...had a dip e/w about Spirit of Tara who again bumped into every horse in the race..drivn me crazy this horse..
if you were quick and saw Mi Casa win down in Melbourne you would of had a bit of a go at Spurson....who won nicely.

Race 5 .
Well after wathcing the the last few races and realising that backmarkers were finding it tough ...Virage looked good value at 4.50 ..
had a go at Virage and testifiable to win a nice amount also had the tri and 1st 4 ... (wooohooo)
(note Katsidis was so exhausted that he fell after the race ?? weird)

Race 6
backed 3 horses here again targeting a specific amount to win.. ..Irish Darling, Cinque and Vitesse...
great win by Vitesse ..thought Irish was butchered by a horrible ride by Zac.
nice tri as well....

Race 7
Had an eachway on Legally bay ....dont ask me why i think the ******** was taking afect...Sir Breaky was good value and i should of been on after giving it a good chance in my tips...oh well no damage done..

Race 8
Damage Done here ...had a big go at Pacific Dancer and County tyrone..
lost a stack ...kicking myself aswell as Natural Blitzs last run was huge and he didnt deserve to be 20,s ...havent seen the video yet but i will soon..

Won a nice amount on Intermoo and Parameter today
polygram was to short,,
lost on Jillimarg (next start be on) wencelas Square (unlucky no run)
Moggs (ran on nicely) So asertive (just hasnt got it anymore)

a good day in Adelaide with Hong Kong Cheri winning....wouldnt of even known about this horse except for looking at that Willie Comand race the other day ..thanks Mr ed ..got the tri and 1st 4 in order..
Clearview was huge value,,, making it a habit of grabing the last in adelaide .
Majestic flush..(not good enough) Miss Latar (next start over ground)
fun at last (ran into a speedy one..good run though)

Huge day for me...and yes i am sluring my words... but ilost a stack last week so i'm celebrating..

hope i didnt take all the luck and you guys won as well..
cheers

there's got to be a difference.
i would not have backed platinum scissors from barrier 20 and i didnt but there you go the winner comes from barrier 19 with a patient and well judged ride.

but overall i wouldnt be going out on that limb too often.

__________________
laurie

Just as a matter of interest, when I worked out the method that I currently use (and have been now for 3 years) I conducted a statistical analysis of race results over a 2 year period. I then weighted each factor as I identified it and placed them in an order of merit (My method uses 9 of these factors). All together there were 41 factors identified and barrier importance came in at number 17. The ONLY place where I even consider barriers is over the Flemington 1200.

Just on Platinum Scissors, had the jockey not gone at the 700 metre mark, it would have run second.

Privateer
Given your comments, could you please explain how you determine the weighting of factors?
Ta
Brian

This one is a hoot. I am standing there in the TAB on Sat just after Mi Casa won well at Rosehill and I am telling about a dozen guys that Spuruson absolutely walloped Mi Casa a couple of weeks before. They kept telling me that Willy Leica was a cert (from the wide gate....huh?). They were all piling on to Willy Leica....so I asked them to at least think about a small save on Spuruson. No takers. I had also told them Our Sweet Moss rated very highly in the previous race. Jeez... what do you have to do!

Well you should have seen the daggers after Spuruson got up. That's it... no more wasting my time in TAB's!

perhaps the barriers had something to do with it.

__________________
laurie

Aaahh, Topsy, a disbeliever. You also probably think that a horse has to be first past the post for you to actually win money.

I have punted for a living for just on 2 and a half years and as a result own my home, drive a nice car, have children going to private school and have just purchased an investment property. I come into the forum occasionally to give out a bit of advice in the hope that fellow punters can learn a few things and win more often. As far as I'm concerned it's us -v- them. This is, believe it or not, a great place to learn about punting and is unique at least in this country.

However, when people like yourself choose to make sarcastic comments you really cruel it for the others and make the likes of me wonder why I am wasting my time.

Apologies to you Brian but without (now) wanting to go into a great deal of detail, examine ALL of the statistical information that can be gleaned from looking at the results of races over a given period. Total all the factors individually and you will end up with a list. That list will show you which factors occur the most frequently. Apply "Pareto's Principle" to your list and see what you come up with.

Cheers

Privateer

__________________

"Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit"

it wasnt me who pointed out that willy leica was from a wide gate and that spuruson was from an inside gate.

but i did back spuruson and not willy leica because of the gate.

you are obviously right on your statistical outcomes as you have the results to show for it and i congratulate you for it.

but having said that i find that a bit patience often gives some good results from inside barriers and i am sure we dont need to back all the winners so i let them go from the outside barriers. i get burnt now and again as the oshea stakes will show but i must admit i am never confident from outside barriers.
as john hawkes says "its barriers that win races not jockeys"

but i am not particularly sarcastic at any time.

__________________
laurie

Hey Topsy,

The wide gate certainly helped the cause (IMO) when I decided to take Willy Leica on. However I have been following Spuruson for around 8 months and have picked up some nice money along the way.

I was in Brisbane when I saw Spuruson giving Mi Casa a thumping. The horse was pulling so hard (even after it hit the line) that, I thought it was going to do a victory lap.

Well done Frankster...as it happens i've been following Mi Casa for awhile and saw that race when Spurson won...
as it happens I liked Wencelas Square (Who was unlucky) but was impressed by the way Mi casa won..
i didnt even think about Spurson till after the race.....i already had my races planed for the day but if i was at home on the computer..i probably would of jumped on....but i was already half ********ed by then..

And Finally about Barriers....i think alot depends on the race itself...as you see in my innitial summary i was alittle worried about Platnum scissors mainly because without any real leaders in the race i had him crossing over quite comfortably.....

an example is a race at Gold Coast Pm day.....Renouf (inside)who loves to jump and run and Grab the Phone (outside) were both racing..both love to lead and both with the help of some other horse went stupid up front and both tired and set it up for the backmarkers (san fransisco i think).
anyway both had there next start from barrier 1 in seperate races without any other leader type horses and won..
both at nice odds as well..

Barriers need to be taken into account with the tempo and pattern of racing for the horse (i'm still learning but speed maps are essential)..the outside Barrier for Pacific dancer didnt worry me as he gets back anyway..but the tempo ended up making it to hard for him..
willy Leicas barrier didnt worry me either as his pattern of racing..
Our sweet moss had a wide barrier but with the lack of speed crossed easily..
in hindisight Our Sweet moss was a good bet because there wasnt any real leaders in the race..i expected Royal Mask or Wasimah to do the leading ..
but was way off.

Privateer...Have been punting for just over a year (professionaly sort of) find i'm learning everyday..and getting better,,
with maybe beginners luck my figures for the year were quite outstanding....i'm learning more but feel if the system aint broke dont fix it..
any advice you give is more than welcome.
just wondering do you have a go at trifectas, trebles 1st 4's ect ?
most pros i know dont even think about it,,,except for maybe doubles if the value is there..but i find i have enormous success with them,,