Sat 30/08/08

287 runners
152 qualifiers / 25 races / 22 winners.
Throw in the PPM's and we pick up another 2 winners (SR4 & MR8).

Hey Joe

(love that old song by Jimi Hendrix). What is the 287 runners, I am missing something here. And what are the PPM's to throw in.

And was there any profit on these 22 winners from 25 races..?

Hey Party, thanks for a bit of advice that you gave me earlier regarding a "loss cut off point". I've rerun all my bets (over a 7 month period on a spreadsheet), and put in a "cut off point when your losses hit a certain amount". And then cop that loss and start again. The end profit wasnt as high but my bank wasnt in as much jeopardy.

Paul

Paul,
There were 287 runners in all races across the Eastern states, spread over 25 races, of which there were 152 horses on the first 5 lines of betting in Fri's Courier Mail.
Couldn't tell you if a profit was made on them, but I somehow doubt it.
I tend to use it as an initial filter for cutting down on form study time.
As you can see, it cuts out roughly 1/2 to 1/3 of the runners for a typical Sat. Which equates to a considerable saving of my very limited time.
The theory being that if they are any further down the order of the Pre Post market you wouldn't back them anyway.
It seems to throw up around the 80 odd % of winners, but narrowing it down futher than that is the trick (that I have not, as yet, mastered)
PPM is, really a question for Partypooper, as that is his baby.

Paul, the PPM referred to is a free system that I posted here several years ago, (PPM stands for Partypoopers Plum Movers ) stress only for fun rules are:

SATURDAY METRO 5 STATES

Working up the TAB nos (i.e. No1 is last) take the first horse with a c or d next to it's name that's it.

There are several sub rules that have been added since but not implemented by all.

The other long shot system is working DOWN the TAB nos starting with No1 the bet is the first horse that finished 5th or worse last start BUT was within 3.5k'gs of the winner.

Party, 3.5 Lengths perhaps?????????

Joe

Try chucking out those whose official opening price is longer than the price in the paper. No guarantees, and I haven't looked at this for a while but I think it will help.

Party, 3.5 Lengths perhaps????????? Thanks JoeF yes Lengths not Kg'S, must be the amber again hahah!

Mark,
Yes I shall give it a go, although I don't record any openers, I suppose the Sunday paper prices will suffice.
Will keep you informed.
Something I have noticed though, is that when there are 5 separate lines of fav's in the pre post market, the pre post fav seems to have a very good strike rate. Something to ponder on perhaps.

Hi Joe

Courier Mail Friday (apologies if the results are not exactly what you come up with, but they should be pretty close)

Bris/Melb
Backing first 5 lines = 14 wins from 96 bets, 14.6%
Leave out those that open longer than paper price = 11 wins from 54, 20.4%
Also leave out the lays I sent you Saturday = 10 wins from 36, 27.8%

G'day Mark,
where do you get "official opening price" ?
the only source I know is the IAS left hand column Open price - which is OK but gets pretty close to race time particularly with country races.
Is there somewhere else I can check ?
cheers .....Mancunian