The betting to Prices idea returns a different amount to betting an equal amount on each selection only because the outlay is invested in a different way.

You could just as easily have $150 on the First 12 bets and $50 on the Last 11 bets and probably come up with a different POT.

Or to be different again, you could invest $150 on every Odd numbered bet and have $50 on every Even numbered Bet and again probably come up with a different POT.

Moeee, well , as exercise on those particular selections, betting to prices I invested $1144 and got a POT of 13.6%, so I invested an AVERAGE of 54.47c per race.

So now then I invest $54.47c per selection on all 21, and get back $1243.55c,

i.e. a flat stakes profit of $99.55 a POT of 8.7%

It will be interesting to see the results from Lomaca, but I am now convinced the answer lies in the fact that the lower the price is always the higher the S/R, so you lose less on the failures of the higher priced nags.

This is completely different to a staking plan whereby you are investing different amounts based purely on whether the previous few selections were successful or not, which of course has no bearing on whether the next one will win.

I just read your first Post here PartyPooper.
You said these 21 Bets were Overlays.

You have worked out level stakes and got an answer.
Then you worked out Betting to Prices and got a different , more rewarding answer.

When you bet to Prices, these prices you say, are they the Final Dividend Prices, or are they the Prices you calculated prior to the event to establish whether the animal was an Overlay.

If they were based on Final Dividends, then do a further exercise using betting to Prices, but this time substitute your calculated Prices and Percentages as the wager, but of course using the Final Dividend as the return.

OK, now the crunch, I applied all of the above to a data base that I have for favs less than 3-1 (for the place)

2338 bets .1621 hits,= 69.33%, Rets 2281 loss of 80 units =POT(3.42%) at level stakes

now betting to prices (to return 1 unit per race)

Total bet = 1666 Rets 1621, loss of 45 units = POT (2.7%) in theory a slight improvement, but alas not what was promised,

and just in case some were getting excited, none of the above took into account the BF 5% commission.

As matter of interest backing best tote (i.e no commission) the returns were 2321.75 for a loss of only 16.25 units or .69%

I am expecting Lomacas figure to confirm that (or worse if he includes all favs regardless of price)

So in conclusion, I guess I have confirmed 2 things that I have always preached : NO staking plan will turn a loss into a profit (not even backing to prices)

And also at this end of the market Best Tote knocks the pants off Bet fair.

Hope you all found some of this interesting

Selected all Supertab races this year.

Bets 12890
Winners 4083
Placing 8233

Level win return. $-1720.00
Level Place return. $-1374.50
Win to $100, return $-55688.21
Cost to $100 $314755.50
Place to $100 $-96141.73
Cost to $100 $584799.65

As can be seen, if it is a loser, the bet to return a certain amount can be a real killer.
However early in the piece there was a winning period, albeit very short, where the level stakes returned a POT of ~11%
and the proportional a POT of ~18%.
So if you are winning it can quickly multiply your return, but in the losing periods you also go down really, really, dangerously quickly.
Whether it's worth the pain, I don't know.
Obviously betting on favs. is not a good indication because they inherently lose.
What I need to do now is try on my winning selections and see if I can
live with an occasional losing run.

Basically it was a waste of time as we already knew what would happen.
There is a comma delimited text file for those who want to double check the results, it can easily be imported into Excel or a database, it's too big to post it here but I'm happy to Email it, to anyone if interested.

Good luck.

I beg to differ partypooper. All you have done is confirmed that none of the staking plans you have looked at turned a loss into a profit.

You cannot prove something does not exist by not finding it unless you have done an exhaustive search.

__________________
toa

Thanks Lomaca, no not a waste of time, sometimes you have to spell it out like that to get the message across.

There is a twist though, as you included all favs all prices, now if you can do the exercise again using the RATED fav, i.e a proven service or person, now only include overlays win+20%, place 1/4 win odds + 50%, you will find a different result!!

I am a little imp arn't I?

Since I do not subscribe to any service nor do I collect any ratings other than the (Neutrals and Prepost from Neutrals + donscott) for testing, I can only test those, see how it goes.

There might be some merit in checking the favs. above or below a certain price, if I have the time I might do it.

Good luck

PS.
I forgot to add why this staking can be so disastrous with favs. or short odds, imagine that on a $1.2 place divi you have to bet ~ $83.00 to win a hundred for a profit of just $17, if it fails, well the rest is history?

Lomaca,.the 50% above 1/4 win odds requirement cuts the vast majority of those out

Another valid point is that I presume your box of tricks there is calculating at Supertab odds? fine for the exercise but my figures show about an 8% improvement when backing at best tote.

Yes Party I only can test with Supertab odds.

But I can categorically say that betting to prices does not work if you have long outs and if your winning prices are near 8 to 10 $.

If anyone interested I ran the neurals CP second selection (the second highest ranking) where the TAB win price was 20% higher than the Neurals rated price for the neural CP horse, and it finished up with $214.60 profit on level stakes and a whopping -$5011.10 loss by betting to return $100.

What happened is that at one stage there were 30 outs and some prices were relatively low, so while the level outlay lost only $30.00 the proportional part went down by nearly $1800.00

On top of it, when it started winning again the odds were in the region of $6 to $18.00 and the outlay to get back $100 was comparatively small.
Therefore the proportional part never recovered.

Since my selections are mostly in this region I certainly keep away from betting to return an amount.

If your selections are winning at level stakes you'd be robbing yourself by limiting your outlay on the higher priced horses.

I don't quite understand your reference to " place 1/4 win odds + 50%," 50% of what?

could you make at bit clearer for me please

Thanks