Gunny72, we are all here searching for that holy grail, I agree with you about the value being more likely to be available about the longer priced horses, BUT as you have already observed, YOU NEED IT, why well, as you probably are aware if you backed every even money chance @ best tote; you would be pretty well close to break even, as that price increases the loss escalates, eg. by the time you reach say 10-1 shots the loss is soaring, by the time you reach 40-1 shots the LOT is off the planet.

in theory, if you back all 50-1 shots you should collect about 1.7 times in 100 bets, ( which is about the TAB take out) but I guarantee you won't, more like 1 time in 400 bets. so boy you need some serious overs there?

I agree that getting $50 pops consistently is pretty difficult and my method mainly selects horses in the $10-$30 dollar range but longer priced selections turn up regularly and sometimes win.

I have tried so many filters with my basic approach but they produce worse results than having no filter. I used to have a simpler approach than I have now and it produced a small profit each year but in the past few years the value has gone with those selections and so has the profit. I have recently made small modifications to my basic method and do apply a filter of sorts now just to pick different selections from everyone else and so far so good but I do know that the run of outs will come. As I tend to go against the grain my method requires nerves of steel!

Basically I reduce the field to a few possibles and then back the longest priced of these a few minutes before the race. I just don't think I can narrow my selections further so I opt for longer prices knowing that horses win in proportion to their starting price.

Well, if works don't change it. Actually I do have a few long shot systems, but really only use them for fun, or when I go to the track (not often these days)

One of these days I'll jag that massive Tri......... one day!

Just looked at slow tracks. All runners all venues all weather slow track.
3434 races Fav wins 1024 29.82%. Just a little lower than fav average. but when fav is <$2.50 the fav s/r is only 40% down from 54% for above on all tracks. FYI Just noticed the big difference