I made a study a while ago over a period of 5 months...not much I know but was just testing out what someone wrote here that maiden favourites win quite a few of the first two races at a meeting. With a small number of filters, 1st-4th last start, within 5L of winner or won last start, started within one month of last start, age to 5yo, maidens and R65 races in New Zealand. Worked very well when using those filters and if the favourite did not qualify, the 2nd favourite was looked at for qualification. Where the dividends were too close to split (say 20c), both were backed.

Also noticed that the distance range 1950-2200m was running at 50% win strike rate.

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[QUOTE=Vortech]I can run a few tests tonight if you like.

Well we triggered some good discussion mate.
Isolation would be great thanks.

Some of the data is slightly out as CP pointed out but over the 12 years you only really have a 0.03% variance I have found.

Do you want the tests done in isolation or with two filters combined?

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Some more findings Kiwi

Attached Files

Favourites K.xlsx (22.5 KB, 424 views)

It was one line of data...

Was this for Favs over to show a profit of minus 13.39 overall.If so it is my belief if we could find the false favourites there is a profit to be made.

If you eliminated South Australia and Queensland would it make a difference.

Could you do Victoria Melbourne courses only please, I show a profit betting there, but not on favourites.

By knowing if the favourite cannot win we can make a profit opposing them which I do quite often.

I won on the first race at Flemington today purely on my perception of linebreeding even though the favourite had form at the distance.

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The Excel doc has several sheets with the results per filter

Wow, found it, grateful thanks Vortech, this is hugely useful, appreciate your efforts.

Chas

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