Hi All,

Well I am glad the question has stirred some good debate.

I did a little homework last night and came up with an interesting statistic that requires further investigation.

Taking Mark's idea off on a tangent, I went through two years of past winner data to find that approximately 78% of winners were both in the TOP 5 API and TOP 5 Place Percentage.

It seems to me at this stage that class may be distinguished by a horse's ability to consistently win 'good prize money'. This is something Mark alluded too.

Food for thought anyway. I'm off to do some more investigating.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Formulae have been knocked here by a couple of people, so my question is this...

How do you suppose that ratings are formulated and bookies prices?

If it didn't work (and a lot faster) then there would be a lot of people never sleeping.

Class will not determine the winner of every race, it's just a tool. You'll never pick the winner of a maiden or class 1 based on a class rating, but when it comes to the higher grade races, it's quite a useful tool.

The original question was how do you MEASURE class.

All measurements that have more than one point of measurement require some formula.

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-05-03 03:24 ]

Luckyboy: Just for the interest, the following are the horses I've identified as being the 'class' runners in the last seven races at Caulfield tomorrow (race 1 is a 2yo with unraced runners):

R2: Songs Of Vienna/Quantong (Eq)
R3: Rahtlin
R4: Studebaker
R5: Blessum***
R6: British Ensign (Highest)
R7: Modern Era
R8: Harley Ma

*** Just one change after the many scratchings - the very heavy track has not been considered.

Remembering these are not necessarily the top-rated horse just the identified 'class' of the field.

[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-05-01 09:45 ]

How to measure 'class' ?

The definition is a problem as class is rarely static, ex: Lohnro, a very classy horse who's 'class' was statically 'top class' throughout his career.

I believe that class is usually on the move, in either an upward direction due to ability etc, or a downward direction due to injury, age, over-racing, poor training, race placement etc.

Problems defining class arise when we use human equivalents for horses. With horses it is strictly $$$ winning ability that define class if we are to use it as a form factor.

Humans can be poor and have class or rich and have none at all, but never horses.

$$$ won I think would have to be the no. 1 class measurement as the greater the purse of a race the hotter the competition.

Time and weight just lead us back to $$$ won due to speed or weight carrying ability
Ditto for all measurements.

The older the horse the easier to work out it's class and vis-a-vis with young horses.

Average dollars earned per race usually sort out most class queries and the measure I generally use as a matter of ease. There are other more labor intensive or quicker computer program methods too. It's just a matter of choice rather than better/worse.

All other factors such as current form is another issue and handicapping factor along with many others and should be treated as such. What current form does tell us is the up/down direction of a hoses present 'class'.

A definitive 'class' factor [what some here are eluding too and trying to measure I think] can never be nailed to a horses backside. In most cases a horses class remains partially elusive due to it being always on the move.

Selecting a winner of a particular race is never just a matter of sorting out the class factor [although sometimes it is when faced with a class standout], but on the whole winners come from the better class runners.

Which one is the ongoing dilemma.

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-05-01 08:32 ]

that statement cancels itself out a horse that wins more races is going to have the highest prizemoney....maybe if they stick with lower class races there might be a difference......but these days there are so many bonus schemes i think bonuses should be left out of prize money won

having spent much time & effort trying to determine the "class" runner of any given race the best i could come up with was -

a chart for each state (vic,nsw,qld) which ranks races from lowest to highest class & within that sub classes based on the day of the week & prizemoney value of the race.

from there any given race can be quickly analysed based on the runners last few starts.

however they are of little assistance when it comes down to the real factors which influence the outcome of a race - those being -

1. the horse himself (fit & happy?)
2. the pygmy sitting on top (tired & hungry?)
3. luck (good or bad)

develop a formula to rate those & happy day are here!

davez,
Davez...that chart for each state which
ranks races from lowest to highest class! I have been after something like that for ages, but could never obtain it...I even asked the Sydney Jockey club and they couldn't help me get it. I tried to develop my own, but without the experience in class, when you look at all the classes there are, it becomes confusing. I was just wondering would you be willing to e-mail it to me...if it's no trouble. I would appreciate it. Thanks mate.

law1mall@hotmail.com

[quote]
On 2004-05-02 11:28, coffee wrote:
davez,
Davez...that chart for each state which
ranks races from lowest to highest class! I have been after something like that for ages, but could never obtain it...I even asked the Sydney Jockey club and they couldn't help me get it. I tried to develop my own, but without the experience in class, when you look at all the classes there are, it becomes confusing. I was just wondering would you be willing to e-mail it to me...if it's no trouble. I would appreciate it. Thanks mate.

Coffee, go to the following sites, all the info you need.

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/ra...ap/handicap.htm

http://www.racingnsw.com.au/page.asp?parm=han.main

La Mer,

Thanks mate, I'll check it out.