If they take out 15% of the pool and redistribute the rest,how is it possible to have a POT of what seems to me to be about -50%.
Is it possible to be that bad in ones selection process?

ooo yeh!




spot on kenny, spot on

Morning Moeee! Not sure if you really stopped reading my long-winded post or not,but since you think I'm funny you MUST'VE read just a little further. Anyway, since no-one has refuted my observations on POT being purely an "after the event" calculation ( I too reflect on how much I WOULD"VE won if I'd been betting bigger once I work out MY POT), I'll assume no-one's got the counter-arguement to do so. The more I think about it ,the more it all comes down to whether you ascribe to the idea of winners (or losers) being "due" ( not called the "gambler's ruin" for nothing);that past success ensures future success
What I'm hoping is that someone can clarify for me how to actually USE this historical knowledge (your past POT) in the future. For example,assuming I "know" I make 10% POT per year on about 1000 bets, and on Dec 24 I've only made 8% what am I going to do? Will I bet HUGE because I'm "owed" 2% on my remaining week's turnover or plug away and accept that this year my POT is probably going to be less. On the other hand, if I'm 20% up after 900 races should I hold off before "the rot" sets in (thus taking me back to my normal POT of 10%) or likewise plug on and maybe end up with a much bigger POT than usual. If the answer is PLUG ON then what's the point of KNOWING your POT. This is not a putdown or puton: I'd be happy to get a reply from someone with concrete advice rather than "subtle" insults. Cheers and good luckto all.

cant speak for anyone else here punter57, but i doubt many would be using their pot calcs to determine their next bet(s), & if they are then this would simply be part of a staking plan of some sort, would it not.

as kenny put it - "Profit on turnover has to be the most accurate measure of whether we have made money or not and if so at what rate we have made it."

i do not view my pot calc's as any sort of "crystal ball" which somehow guarantees me a profit next week/month/year. simply they are a guide to let me know how i am performing at present, & therefore i am able to compare my present performance to my past efforts, & i would suggest that this type of analysis is essential for anyone serious about making a quid, no matter the endeavour.

Now I'm really confused Davez. You're right (as I see it) that POT is but a tool for making comparisons between current and past performance:that it's not a crystal ball. Yet a couple of posts earlier you were praising Kennyvictor, who SPECIFICALLY says that IMHO(what's that?) POT is, INDEED, a "very good"(the only?) guide for tomorrow's success and that with it,you can "BET WITH CONFIDENCE INTO THE FUTURE"!!!! He also makes the observation that "those who want to make money" will get much closer to doing so IN FUTURE if they use historical POT. Before him, Shaun asserted (a few posts earlier)that you can even use POT to predict WHEN your bank will double. Needless to say, there have been quite a number of replies in similar vein and one or two who knocked MY scepticism.
Maybe someone from THAT side of the fence, who believes he/she CAN use POI to predict (or better manage) the future, could fill us in.Can you,maybe, let me know how your use of known/expected POT would be utilized in the two examples I posted earlier this morning. Thanks, in advance, as I'm genuinely interested.

Davez summed it up perfectly on what pot is about, and as for predicting winners i don't think we do that but it is a good planning tool.
Yes i did say you could double your bank in 8 sessions if you had a pot of 10% this was just an example of what can be done with a particular amount, pot is just one of the tools of good money managment and with out that you can never hope to beat the game.

sorry that you are really confused, but my last post makes my views on the subject as clear as i can possibly make them.

P57, the statements people have made about POT have not implied it is used in progressive staking or anything about winners being "due".

You are correct that it's known only after the race (same for strike-rate) but over the course of time one race isn't going to affect the figure dramatically. POT together with strike-rate gives you a sense of the type of bets you make and how profitable they are for you. This is useful knowledge when planning your betting approach and what you might expect over time, based on your past experience.

It is a far better indicator than counting the dollars in your wallet at the end of the day, where say you find yourself $20 up: if you've bet $1000 (2%POT) then you've just scraped out a profit and with that kind of margin you'd really need to know what you're doing in that risk/reward scenario. On the other hand, if you've bet $1 (2000% POT) then you'd probably consider that luck, or at least realise it's unlikely that level of profit will be sustained.

POT is simply the most appropriate measure of your profitability. Every business needs to know it's profitability, even in racing where the future holds uncertainty.

G'day Shoto. I fear we're getting a bit bogged down, as basicly I'm not against calculating your POT but wondering, more, how KNOWING your POT is going to HELP your actual income. I keep records and have just worked out POT for 2004, though this is not usually a concern for me. At this point in 2005 (for just over 5 months) I'm considerably ahead on THAT rate,without having modified my selection methods.
After checking the strike rate and average odds I've discovered that the SR is similar but that the higher Odds have made the difference. I am doing NOTHING DIFFERENT, yet (for now) my current POT is magnificently better. On June 30 if I decide to "close the books" and use this "financial" year as my reckoning period (instead of "calendar') thus dramatically "improving" my running 12-month POT, will this be a DELUSION?? Of course I'll recalculate the previous 12-month periods "to be consistent" The POT will remain, as is proper, over MANY races and yet be purely ARBITRARY, a simple book-keeping jiggle. Well?
Finally,a lot of people are claiming that this preoccupation with profitability/POT has nothing to do with increasing your bets (in future) but is simply about "planning". Could someone explain this; if you know you'll bet (roughly) 500 times next year (only on the most "profitable" type of horse) and will make (roughly) 10%, how can you make any more ACTUAL money except by INCREASING the amount you wager??? Cheers,and good luck from (a baffled???) punter57.

Hi
The POT is really just a bottom line indicator, but its components Win S/R, Loss S/R and avg odds do provide the information needed in finding your confidence level, your Optimum edge, your bankroll growth rate and longest losing sequence, which are very important tools.
The other use of the POT apart from the obvious, is in providing a roadworthy test on a system or whatever by adding one's # of bets not over a year but a shorter duration, you can get a Final indicator of that systems roadworthyness

"Could someone explain this; if you know you'll bet (roughly) 500 times next year (only on the most "profitable" type of horse) and will make (roughly) 10%, how can you make any more ACTUAL money except by INCREASING the amount you wager??? Cheers,and good luck from (a baffled???)"

If you have enough past records of your betting history, yes you could make more money without increasing the avg amount wagered within a yr, simply by knowing something called deviation from the Equipartition, overseas betting groups run massive amounts of sim's based Equipartition an Pascals Triangle to adjust the amounts wagered within a betting series, thus not increasing bet amounts overal, but by combining the above knowledge with ones Optimum edge, they reduce risk at certain times an increase reward at other times, without increasing ones avg amount invested for the set time period.