Hi all, haven't posted for a long time but have been reading with interest this thread as I think it highlights the different thoughts on staking (most important).

I actually wanted to hear what Bhagwan had to say about the "nay sayers" of progression staking as he appears to be the king of the staking plans.

Secondly Bhagwan do you think it is possible for a progression plan to be formulated for a method where your selections are striking around 12-13% but paying $8.00 on average. Level stakes about even, but a progression plan with that low a strike rate would run up a big run of outs.

While we are quoting texts, "There is no such thing as a successful level stake gambling system." - The Elements of Throughbred Racing, Joseph Keating.

So who is right? One thing is for sure - Winners are grinners no matter what the method or plan.

Sorry, of course you'll only get a figure between 0 and 100% if you format the cell as a percentage. Otherwise you get a number between 0 and 1. Same diff though. ops:

Mr Keating either

a) Hadn't been able to restrain himself from loss chasing
b) Never found a system.
c) Never asked around.

It's being done everyday.

OR

He meant that a gambling system is when the overall odds are against you - negative POT

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Top Rank,

Nowhere does Bhagwan say progressive staking will turn losing flat stakes betting into a winning betting system. If your a winning punter, well various progressive staking systems offer some variety. That said, there are those that believe progressive staking will do what's mathematically impossible: turn bad odds into good odds, because that's what they truly WANT to believe and ************ the maths [I do that with my bank balance ... I believe it's a $million, but my bank manager just can't see past the reality of the maths]!

These people are of the same ilk that belong to the Flat Earth Society, or who jump off tall buildings convinced they can fly [because not understanding the laws of gravity, they believe they don't apply to them].

Thanks for the tip champ.

use bet fair u losers

Another QUOTE:

Ladder staking plans can turn a negative level stakes result into a positive. Even if there is a -30% LOT. Bhagwan 23rd Sept. 2006 at 11.37am in the thread headed Ladder Staking Plans.

Food for thought.

Hi AngryPixie,

Certainly have an other look there now that I have an idea of what its about, found that site a while ago and seen all them numbers and things, I clicked that little x, you know the one at top right.

Seriously though, I am concerned about “The figure I used above does give you a ludicrous advantage of 146%”. I have no doubt that your analysis of the figures supplied is correct, Im just worried that I may made an error in my calculations. Have to double check.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Hi All,

Really interesting the different ideas being discussed here, I would like to ask a general question about staking.

We all know and understand Level Stakes, just put 1 Point on every selection never ending.

My question is this:

Define the difference between Progressive Staking a Stake Recovery.

Is there a difference or not ?.

Kevin

Novice Punter

I've had a look at the latest Excel shreadsheet you attached. It was a bit peculiar but using the figures you've supplied I get the following:

Observed
===
Bets 944
Wins 386
S/R 40.88%

Expected
===
Bets 944
Wins 348.74
S/R 36.94%

This gives you a Yate's Corrected Chi score of 6.14, which converts to around a 98.68% chance that your performance is due to some factor other than luck. Given your high number of bets I'd say this was significant.

Your advantage is 10.84%. Your level stakes ROI is 6.15%. Your average SP for all bets is 2.86 (34.96%)

I'll send you the bill. Greenbacks only thanks

Pixie

PS: How did you do that spreadsheet? Not by hand I hope. I couldn't find one formula in it.