Have you thought about comparing the Pre-post newspaper or online priced Fav with the Betfair price movement.

I have seen days where the blowers fall over all day.

Then one will see where half get up to win all day.

So a cut off point is important, if lay betting, say 5 outs on the day , then stop betting for the day.

__________________
Cheers.

Thanks Bhagwan - that is a thought. It looks as though it does need one extra element to moderate things. However because I am looking at every horse in every race, I would need to be able to access that element online.

If I could access the pre-post online it would be interesting to see how it fits in to the mix.

But early days and I did change my mind and logged the data again today.

I have decided to log to a week and then if a trend emerges in that data, test that trend for the remainder of the month.

Already it looks as if it would be a bumpy road so I agree that a stop loss would be needed.

Hi 4legs,

With your results can you tell me when you took the snapshots, was it 25 seconds and 2 seconds as you said in an earlier post? Also is the $0.50 factor a minimum so all the above results are based on these horses firming or drifting a minimum of $0.50 during the time the snapshots were taken?

Cheers,

Mat.

Hi Mat;

On the initial 20/2 there was no movement in the price by .50, so the results for the 3 days posted were snapshots at the 120 sec and the 10 secs mark.

I log all the results and in a secondary move I looked at all movement of .50 cents (either way) from the 120 seconds price.

I am continuing to log and when time permits I will analyse more; however I feel the analysis may need to be on varying movement prices depending on the price as I did have prices moving in the range -$330 - + $430.

I am approaching it all with an open mind and I do not want to filter it out of existence, but I have to decide how to handle these high swings - as my analysis may show these are the ones to follow.

Trust this assists ... Fred

Thanks Fred, very helpful.

I understand that I am probably the most recent member of this community and also the most inexperienced in the world of the punt, however I make the following comment based on my experience with what is the smallest data base in the world of the punt ... so lots of conditions attached - and I am sure one that everyone on the forum is aware of the statement I am about to make!

So .. the statement ...

For the uninitiated, one would have to exercise extreme care in looking at past data to predict a future outcome, as it would be too easy to impose conditions which would give a false hope.

An extreme example: On looking at my database (I know - the smallest in the world of punt) I could say the 7th ranked horse in races of 13 starters with a barrier less than 7 and with a drift of more than $2.0 would give a return of over 300% (fact from data base).

However my logical mind tells me that in reality the chances of that circumstance repeating would be so close to 0% it is a nonsense to even suggest it.

So my hypothesis would be that the more conditions one imposes the less chance of success it has!

Anyway a very, very satisfying exercise and another step forward in my learning process.

And once again a very sincere thanks to all those who offered their advise and support - it was very much appreciated.

Fred

Its all about sample size.
You really need at least 100 selections before any ideas can be formed.
Preferably 1000.
Those that bother making note of a trend after a days racing with perhaps 15 races are just washing their hands with a cake of mud.

Hi Moeee - thanks for your comments.

I have over 200 races (which I would consider a minimum), but due to my inexperience I am really not sure what I am looking for and consequently I am going down these silly roads.

But I will continue to collect the data to a 1000 records as you suggest and at some time in the future my experience may be adequate to properly analyse the data I have.

There is a spreadsheet floating around , may even be on this website posted by Woof43.
What you do is you chuck in the number of races , the number of winners , the returns of the winners , and stuff like that , and it tells you what percentage chance it is that your results are due to something significant , or whether it was just plain coincidence or luck.

Another method of analysis is to have 3 sample batches of 150 races.

If one sample shows a profit & the others more or less break even , it may indicate that it has potential.

Therefore more testing of batches of 150 each.

If a majority of further batch testing shows a profit , it usually is telling us something.
e.g. 5 winning batches out of 8 batches ect.

It makes the whole analysis game a little clearer to look at rather than one great big batch of 1000 races in one big clump.

__________________
Cheers.