Not bad day. The 11 selections became 11 smiles for a profit of $5.93.

Hi Michaelg,

Thanks for the earlier post regards MR. I will now change to backing the top 2 chances as I see them on the nose(only taking overs) and see how this goes. Who knows, I may even make it the local track one of these days and give the bookies a bit of 'what for' LOL!

Regards your results here, very impressive! If I am correct, you are running several rules to pick out the right races for each meet and 1 or more filter systems to weed out & confirm "the worst" in the field, with no immediate panic regards the long odds for each selection - irrespective of where they end up at the jump?

Are you able to give me a simple explanation for the staking method for the lay bet on BF? I am new to this side of the fence = it feels like putting my pants on backwards just to think about the concept of laying a horse (unintended visual aside!)

cheers LG

PS what also interests me is that you appear to have created opportunities to simultaneously back and lay in the same race thereby reducing the overall exposure-liability? (a 'push-me-pull-me horseplay'
and lets not go with too many visuals on that one either LMAO)

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Hi, L.G.

Yes, I pick the "right" races and then apply a couple of filters to weed out the worst chance in the race.

Laying via S.P. is not a worry because even if the selection ends up being the biggest outsider I can only lose $33 (this is liability for each selection I use for the purpose of recording the results on this thread) but not with real betting. The only drawback with outsiders is that the profit is minimal.

I have no staking method - I lay each selection according to my opinion. But I do have a minimum liability and will increase on this according to my opinion. For example, for the purposes of this thread today's profit was $5.93 with level $33 liability lay-bets, but my real profit was about $100 with having different sized bets. The higher I might bet if I think the horse's chances of winning are slim.

I no longer back and lay (only lay) because the results are too hard to accurately determine, and I prefer laying.

Thanks mg

Your SR looks phenomenal, something akin to a high yielding online bank account ticking over with interest - the only risks I see being the bank falling over (too many successive longshots get up?) or the opportunity cost is too great (better use of funds elsewhere?)

If we assume that 'accidents' remain low and far between, perhaps as part of the holy grail of betting systems, we also have a low yielding money management system that generates an inflation busting return on funds lying idle in the bank = high smiles all around?

Surely it would make business sense(subject to current leglislation) for the likes of BF, TBA et al to make use of a pool of idle funds, in a similar way.

Just my thoughts.

LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Hi, L.G.

Yes, the strike rate so far has been phenomenal.

I identify the "right" races by applying only one rule - and that is every horse in the race must have had at least three career starts. Then I apply two simple filters.

I've also been looking at a second "outsiders" lay method based on the above rule. I started about a week ago using it here, in the U.S. and in the U.K. and so far it has a 100% strike rate. The overseas bets are still small ($33 liability) but the Oz bets are somewhat substantial.

Is there any "rule of thumb" regarding what the return might be? Yesterday Sandown, race 1, layed your suggesion and one of my own (9 and 10) for $200 --- the return was a magnificent $2.43!!!

Don't mind a risk; but it would have been heart attack material had one of them got up, and eventually they will. While other races were better, it seems that the risk/reward ratio is too slanted towards BF.

Thanks --- and Good Luck.

Merriguy, I don't have a rule of thumb.

Almost all the smiles will provide an extremely small profit, but there's been one or two, not many that have started at single figures. I just persevere and hope over the long run it'll be successful because of the selection method.

Today's selections:

Rocky
1/2
2/4
5/13
6/13
7/5
9/11

Wyong
2/7
5/6
7/14

Ballarat
4/9

Geraldton
6/10
7/12

Cranbourne
5/5
6/1
7/11

THought that might be your answer! Anyway Good Luck today.

Wyong 7????
#4 = 2 starts.

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Jose'.

Meant to add I hope it gets beat for you.

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Jose'.