Every Topic,

I know there are people who can win on the place, but when I tried it over a few weeks [1wx4p] it's profit was nowhere near what I would have collected beting for the win only. The final place price is just too volatile and crashes right on or after the start far too often.

It's just not my cuppa.

Cheers.

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-02 10:57 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-02 10:58 ]

agreed Crash,
the old place betting does involve a bit of getting used to especially at the trots where the pool is smaller.

but after a while the fog clears and the science shines through :smile:

usually you will find that a horse offering only $1 ($1.04 on NSW) a few minutes before the start will go up in price in the last moments whilst a horse that is favourite but paying $1.50+ can crash to $1 as the horses hit the release point.

last week I was watching a race from Harold Park on the Tuesday. the horse I wanted was showing $1.04 as the horses formed behind the barrier, as they set off it crawled to $1.10 - which gave me hope.
I kept working the refresh button as they wound around to the release point and slammed my money on when it hit $1.40 with about 100 metres to go before release.
it closed at $1.70 and romped in for the place.

but you do feel like you have earnt the dough !!

see ya
Every Topic

everytopic, it can be a bit frustrating watching the tote, on Saturday I was watching P Harveys mount in the 1st (forgot the name) waiting for a minimum of $2, it was showing $1.50 to what seemed to me to be the last second, so I refrained, the darn thing romped in(of course) and paid $2.10c.
I've found though , overall it probably evens out if you just let em run with your cash anyway, i.e some pay under, some pay over.

Everytopic,

Had a quick look at your $3 premium idea and it didn't seem to hold up in the long run. BUT there was an interesting trend in the Saturday Metro figures - basically look at favourites which are priced at under $3 on Tabcorp AND where the "premium" over the next runner is between about $1 and $1.50.

Too tired to go into full details tonight but it looks like it has some potential.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

becareful wrote...
"Had a quick look at your $3 premium idea and it didn't seem to hold up in the long run. BUT there was an interesting trend in the Saturday Metro figures - basically look at favourites which are priced at under $3 on Tabcorp AND where the "premium" over the next runner is between about $1 and $1.50.

BC, I assume you are using Tabcorp prices.
I was looking at this yesterday and played around with it on trots races (for Tuesday) and noticed that a few runners that qualified on qtab wouldnt have qualified if I was using NSW prices.

maybe it would all even out in the wash but the difference between TAB's makes for tricky analysis.

let us know how your Saturday numbers stack up.

see ya
Every Topic

If more than one tote was used to work out the bet a more accurate selection would be the end result.

in the last newsletter it said jeremiad was favourite at ~ 3.30 but regent street was favourite at even money .

any comments neil. cheers mate.

umrum

Regent Street started at $3.40.

Hi guys

Just following up one of the earlier posts, I am wondering if one of the database gurus could do me a favour.

I was wondering what the stats are on:
3 to 7 runners
Starting price < $2.00
All races, all tracks

This is basically the same system which has been the main gist of the thread, except that only considered metro tracks on the Saturday. Lets hope the results are equally as good for the more general system. Thanks in advance.

Hi Darren,

Sorry, I'd oblige but I only keep records of metro tracks. The time involved for me to do all venues properly would be a fulltime affair.
Perhaps, someone with a larger database could oblige.