So Sportz, which run do you use as the base rating, last start, last run at distance, best run at distance, best run in current preparation???

Well, I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible and at the moment, I'm simply taking an average of the horse's last run and the horse's highest rating recent run. If neither of those runs is comparable with today's race, then I may go back further into the horse's form, but as a rule, I usually try to concentrate mainly on a horse's last 3 starts if I can. Of course, when horses are first-up or second-up, well that's more of a problem.

It's hard to say Ron. Personally, i dont like to automate the base rating too much. I look at the 'good' ratings a horse does say in its last 4/5 runs. Then i look for a few things:

Can a horse be expecetd to improve at all (lightly raced, improving ratings)? Has it done a peak performance and now should revert to its old lesser form? Is a horse rating well below its best on going/distances that should suit? Has a dry tracker been hitting wet tracks recently?

That sort of stuff.

These were the races I looked at today:

SAND R5
08 PHANTOM THIEF 61.5 $3.45
04 MY VISION SPLENDID 60.5 $4.90
11 ROY'S GIFT 59.5 $6.90
01 SIR CLIVE 59.0 $7.80
02 MYSTIC MORSE 58.5 $9.05
03 FEN PRINCE 57.5 $12.30

SAND R6
04 VIC BY THE JUG 60.0 $2.50
05 TIFF'S MATE 58.0 $5.05
06 PHANTOM RUN 56.5 $7.65
08 REGAL SYSTEM 55.5 $10.50
02 KANE SMYTZER 54.0 $18.00
10 SIR GALAWAY 54.0 $18.00

SAND R7
01 JURLIQUE 59.0 $3.15
06 MARY'S FLAG 57.5 $5.30
05 CHERIE BERRIE BEE 56.5 $7.20
02 DELICATA 56.0 $8.35
07 TAG JEUR 54.0 $15.85
09 ZALS 54.0 $15.85

IPSW R6
03 TRANQUIL BLUE 51.0 $2.90
05 JACKSON HILL 50.5 $3.40
08 ALL BROWN 46.5 $12.05
06 DINNA ANCHOR 46.0 $14.45
11 BERNYARD 45.0 $20.65
04 GOLDIE'S SON 45.0 $20.65
01 JYI'S PROSPECT 45.0 $20.65

IPSW R7
05 FORD'S BRIDGE 43.5 $5.40
06 NAPLES AVENUE 43.0 $6.35
01 SHIBDEN GROVE 42.5 $7.70
10 MAGIC GOLD 42.0 $9.00
11 LOOK AT HIM 42.0 $9.00
02 WITH ASTAIRE 42.0 $9.00

IPSW R8
10 ROYAL DREAMER 56.5 $2.35
03 MISS GLORYHUNTER 53.5 $6.20
02 SOUND WAVES 53.0 $7.10
01 WINSOME LOOT 51.5 $11.75
08 GLAD FAIR 51.5 $11.75

WYONG R4
13 JON RON 51.5 $4.60
04 BELLE MARGUERITE 51.0 $5.35
03 LONGUEVILLE LASS 50.5 $6.55
02 CRESTON KING 49.5 $9.20
07 STADIO 48.5 $12.10
09 DRACAAN 48.5 $12.10

WYONG R6
02 GANAMAC 57.5 $2.75
01 GO GUS 54.5 $7.20
11 LOUP ROUGE 53.5 $9.80
06 KIR ROYALE 53.0 $11.40
10 MAMBO DANCER 53.0 $11.40
09 CEE WAY 52.5 $13.70

Not bad results as far as finding the winners, and a few good multiples as well. Some strange ones though with Royal Dreamer and Vic By The Jug rated so short and Kane Smytzer so long. That was one occasion when my method of concentrating on recent runs didn't work well. Have to keep experimenting with them until I find the right balance.

Sportz you can't concentrate on recent form only, and you can't concentrate on old form only. You can't restrict to this distance, nor this state of the track. You can't take last start as gospel, nor can you ignore it. You can't average all runs, nor can you place too much emphasis on one only. To blandly paraphrase Euripides - "the best way is the middle way."

There is no easy answer. Know the horse, know what it can do on it's ratings, watch it run, see how it's going now, estimate given tomorrow's circumstances what it will do tomorrow. Then, price the race, bet the overs.

When you lose (this is VERY important) look back and work out why you under assessed it. When you win, enjoy the satisfaction that comes from being right and winning money out of it.

This will always be the best way.

Duritz.

Sorry forgot to explain why I said all that - Kane Smytzer was an obvious example of a horse with problems who had lengths of ability on that field. Assuming that it's recent bad form (ie two runs so far this prep, only two last prep) were indicative of it's TOTAL ability is like writing off Michael Jordan when he has a bad run.

(OK OK that's an exaggeration, but to quote someone else (can't remember who this time, and yes I am aware that I am using a second set of brackets inside the first right now (and I don't care (and why should I (I shouldn't)))) "Paint the truth in blood.")

Duritz.

You talk (write) a lot of sense Duritz but your wanton use of brackets shocks me to the core. I overuse brackets (sometimes normal ({othertimes curly [occasionally square]****) myself, but can't condone it in others. If you hadn't balanced them (5 left, 5 right) I would have reccomended you be struck from the forum.

"Me",,,"I'm into inverted commas",,,"and three or four commas in a row"......"Sometimes I use several full stops"....."but really I prefer the commas",,,,("I mean brackets are cool,,, ****"if you are heavily into brackets"****,,,"but for me inverted commas are a real turn on")

How bout my ranking formula....

=IF(B1&C1<>B2&C2,1,GJ1+1)

Chrome I have absolutely no idea what that applies to. None at all. ([****?****])