Duritz,

If I were able I would love to take your money on betting on horses having there second run having won first up.
Stats I keep on my own methods show that this group of horses can win close to 30+% of the time. Problem is there short price.

Some recent first up winners who have won again at there next start include:
I Believe, Cool Front, Run Rita Run

I stress this is with my method of selection, not all runners with this stat.

Good Punting.

Based on the last 13 months on metro tracks, 1st up winners repeat that win only 21% of the time 2nd up, losing a little over 14%.

You have me the wrong way - I don't want to BACK 2nd uppers who've won first up, I'd like to LAY them. I reckon 2nd uppers who've won first up can be a good lay because they can be flattened by the first up big run.

If you want to back them with me I'll let you, that 14% L.O.T would sit very nicely in my pocket!

Just a little more on these type of runners. The strike-rate is based on per race, so there could be more than one runner in any given race.

When based on runners priced $5 or less, then the strike-rate per race jumps to slightly over 35% but the loss remains, but comes down to 10.6%

I like to back Unitab 100 raters which won 1st-up if they're a winner at this course and distance (c) or if they won their 2nd last start before a spell (in other words, their 3rd last start). I've done okay with that in the last year or so.

I don't doubt your stats La Mer, which is why it is important to keep your own stats on your own methods.
When a horse has the formline x1 and is selected by my methods it is a regular winner.
If anyone has read books by Malcolm Knowles they would know that a horse with this formline that also has the best place strike rate has a high win percentage.
I have in some ways improved on Malcolm's good work.

Good Punting.

It would all depend on the class, distance and weight of the next race if a last start winner's finishing position meant anything.

The fact that a runner won it's last race or it's last 3 or 4, is surely meaningless, unless it is again competing in a similar race to it's last start [and it's weight will go up and it's price down if it is]. The new price may or may not make a last start winner a good bet, regardless of it's finishing position. A win is a win is a win regardless of price, is a well travelled road to long term loss.

RESULTS
Area Bets Win Plc WOut WRet WPrf Wsr% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Country 164 21 54 1640 1301 -339 12
Metropolitan 150 17 49 1500 1160 -340 11
Provincial 226 33 74 2260 2943 +683 14
>>> Totals 540 71 177 5400 5404 4 13



Top Ran Method Modified

RACE RULES:
include if Area = Provincial only.

HORSE RULES:
include if Barrier between 7 and 24

HORSE RATING RULES:
include if Place% between 5 and 49
include if Win% Rank between 1 and 1

HORSE STATISTICS RULES:
include if Career Starts between 4 and 40

HORSE FORM RULES RUN #1:
include if Days Ago between 1 and 27
include if FinPos Last Start between 4 and 24

17% SR
Approx 45% POT

__________________
Cheers.