MR6

3.Alinghi $1.35
1.Fastnet Rock $8.00
9.Not a Single Doubt $13.00
8.General Bayton $31.00
7. Foreplay $61.00

then Danbird, Keeninsky, Don't Tell Tom

SR7

1.Jymcarew $2.65
3.Eremein $2.75
2.Outback Prince $11.00
4.Cheval de Troy $12.00
7.Dignity Prince $26.00

then Nevis, Ulysses, Svenska

Cheers,

H.

Sportz, are you having any success with tweaking your ratings so that the top picks don't come up so short? I had Lotterria at $1.40 last week and now Alinghi at $1.35. Common sense tells me they just shouldn't be so short. On the other hand, at least when I mark them so short I'm encouraged to bet with more confidence...

Heavyweight,

Now that she's won, I guess $1.35 was okay, but you're right, she probably shouldn't have come up so short compared to Fastnet Rock.

How do you do ratings? In kgs, lengths or points? If you rate horses in kgs, then you could perhaps use this price conversion table that I use. I've been fiddling about with it trying to get it to produce more accurate prices and I think I might have it about right now:

Top rated horse = 100 points
0.5 kgs behind = 87 points
1.0 kgs behind = 75 points
1.5 kgs behind = 65 points
2.0 kgs behind = 57 points
2.5 kgs behind = 50 points
3.0 kgs behind = 45 points
3.5 kgs behind = 40 points
4.0 kgs behind = 36 points
4.5 kgs behind = 32 points
5.0 kgs behind = 28 points
5.5 kgs behind = 24 points
6.0 kgs behind = 20 points
6.5 kgs behind = 17 points
7.0 kgs behind = 14 points
7.5 kgs behind = 12 points
8.0 kgs behind = 10 points
8.5 kgs behind = 9 points
9.0 kgs behind = 8 points
9.5 kgs behind = 7 points
10+ kgs behind = 6 points
11+ kgs behind = 5 points
12+ kgs behind = 4 points
13+ kgs behind = 3 points
15+ kgs behind = 2 points
20+ kgs behind = 1 point

Here's what you do. After you've done your ratings, you refer to the table and award points to each horse depending on how many kgs behind the top rated horse you have them. After you've done that, add up all the points of every horse in the race to get a total. Then divide that total by each horse's score and that will give you a price for each runner. Here's an example:

#1 Rtg 65.0 = 2.0 kgs behind = 57 pts
#2 Rtg 63.0 = 4.0 kgs behind = 36 pts
#3 Rtg 61.5 = 5.5 kgs behind = 24 pts
#4 Rtg 60.5 = 6.5 kgs behind = 17 pts
#5 Rtg 67.0 = 0.0 kgs behind = 100 pts
#6 Rtg 61.5 = 5.5 kgs behind = 24 pts
#7 Rtg 59.5 = 7.5 kgs behind = 12 pts
#8 Rtg 64.5 = 2.5 kgs behind = 50 pts

The total of those points is 320, so you now divide 320 by each horse's score and do a bit of rounding up or down to get their prices:

#1 320/57 = $5.60
#2 320/36 = $8.90
#3 320/24 = $13.35
#4 320/17 = $18.80
#5 320/100 = $3.20
#6 320/24 = $13.80
#7 320/12 = $26.65
#8 320/50 = $6.40

Hope that helps. Of course if you don't rate in kgs, then it's probably not much use.

This week:

Top Rank (70 + 70) 140
Sportz (77.5 + 55) 132.5
Jimmy (70 + 60) 130
Dr Ron (70 + 50) 120
La Mer (72.5 + 40) 112.5
QuickFunBet (62.5 + 50) 112.5
Duritz (72.5 + 37.5) 110
ubetido (55 + 55) 110
zorro (77.5 + 30) 107.5
Chrome Prince (70 + 37.5) 107.5
Heavyweight (70 + 35) 105
The mug (70 + 35) 105
xpt driver (60 + 35) 95
kiwi (55 + 37.5) 92.5


Overall:

Sportz 847.5
zorro 767.5
La Mer 757.5
Top Rank 755
Jimmy 735
QuickFunBet 700
Dr Ron 695
Duritz 667.5
Heavyweight 657.5
xpt driver 625
ubetido 602.5
The mug 530
Filante 510
Chrome Prince 487.5
Shaun 292.5
kiwi 287.5

Well done Top Rank. It'll be a shame if you can't post ratings next week.

Thanks Sportz. Interesting table;thanks for sharing it. For this competition, I have been trying all sorts of things. Last week and today I rated them in Kgs and then converted them to prices using a similar table to yours, but sliding more steeply. Using your table gives me $1.50 Alinghi, $6.00 FNR, significantly closer to my gut feel of the right prices.

I had Alinghi 5.5kg ahead of FNR, mainly on the strength of superior strike rates and average earnings, particularly under today's conditions. I think I may be overdoing the bonuses for these factors, and in any case the approach seems a bit mechanical. It worked out in this case, but it doesn't often enough.

Anyway, thanks for your help. Another step forward...

Cheers,

H.

I see there were a few good price winners in Sydney yeaterday that came from barrier 1.

Yep! I had a great day.

I had $2 each way on River To The Sea purely because of the barrier, no other reason. Read the last post on this thread: http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthr...60391#post60391

I also had $2 each way on Tui Song too, but that wasn't because of the barrier. It was tipped by Craig Tompson from Betbusters. Well done to him. Of course, the fact that it was starting from Barrier 1 was a bonus. I didn't back Kablammo in the last, but I did include it in my trifecta.

This week's races:

ROSEHILL R5-2.20 THE BMW 2400 M
1 GRAND ARMEE Gai Waterhouse D Beasley 1 58
2 HUGS DANCER (FR) Tony McEvoy C Brown 2 58
3 COUNTY TYRONE Kris Lees H Bowman 10 58
4 ANOTHER WARRIOR Alan Bailey L Cassidy 3 58
5 MAHTOUM Kim Moore 9 58
6 MANAWA KING (NZ) Jim Conlan 7 58
7 SEUL AMOUR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson J Cassidy 5 57.5
8 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman G Boss 8 55.5
9 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody D Beadman 4 55
10 OUTBACK PRINCE Anthony Cummings 6 53
11 CHEVAL DE TROY (NZ) Colin Jillings R S Dye 11 53

ROSEHILL R7-3.55 AAMI GOLDEN SLIPPER 1200 M
1 SNITZEL Gerald Ryan G Boss 56.5
2 WRITTEN TYCOON Grahame Begg D Beasley 56.5
3 DOMESDAY John Hawkes C Brown 56.5
4 STRATUM Paul Perry L Beasley 56.5
5 UNDOUBTEDLY Mark Kavanagh D Dunn 56.5
6 SEIDNAZAR Peter G Moody L Nolen 56.5
7 FLYING PEGASUS David Payne D Nikolic 56.5
8 AL SAMER Tim Martin H Bowman 56.5
9 DR GREEN (NZ) Brian Jenkins R McLeod 56.5
10 FASHIONS AFIELD Gai Waterhouse C Munce 54.5
11 MEDIA Bob Thomsen R S Dye 54.5
12 MNEMOSYNE John Hawkes D Beadman 54.5
13 OPPORTUNITY (NZ) Tony Vasil D Oliver 54.5
14 PERMISSIVE Gai Waterhouse L Cassidy 54.5
15 BLIZZARDLY Gai Waterhouse D McLellan 54.5
16 POETIC GENIUS Graeme Rogerson J Cassidy 54.5

I've put these up nice and early, so hopefully Top Rank can post some ratings this week. No barrier draw as yet for the Slipper.

Good luck.

After the Slipper Barrier draw:

1 SNITZEL Gerald Ryan G Boss 12 56.5
2 WRITTEN TYCOON Grahame Begg D Beasley 14 56.5
3 DOMESDAY John Hawkes C Brown 4 56.5
4 STRATUM Paul Perry L Beasley 6 56.5
5 UNDOUBTEDLY Mark Kavanagh D Dunn 9 56.5
6 SEIDNAZAR Peter G Moody L Nolen 2 56.5
7 FLYING PEGASUS David Payne D Nikolic 15 56.5
8 AL SAMER Tim Martin H Bowman 8 56.5
9 DR GREEN (NZ) Brian Jenkins R McLeod 1 56.5
10 FASHIONS AFIELD Gai Waterhouse C Munce 3 54.5
11 MEDIA Bob Thomsen R S Dye 11 54.5
12 MNEMOSYNE John Hawkes D Beadman 10 54.5
13 OPPORTUNITY (NZ) Tony Vasil D Oliver 16 54.5
14 PERMISSIVE Gai Waterhouse L Cassidy 5 54.5
15 BLIZZARDLY Gai Waterhouse D McLellan 13 54.5
16 POETIC GENIUS Graeme Rogerson J Cassidy 7 54.5

ROSEHILL RACE 5
1 GRAND ARMEE
8 MAKYBE DIVA
10 OUTBACK PRINCE
9 VOUVRAY
11 CHEVAL DE TROY

RACE 7
1 SNITZEL
5 UNDOUBTEDLY
10 FASHIONS AFIELD
2 WRITTEN TYCOON
3 DOOMESDAY

__________________
Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

Race 5


1.Grand Armee
8 Makaybe diva
11 cheval de troy
9 vouvray
2 hugs dancer
5 mahtoum
10 outback pr2 ince

race 7
1 snitzel
11 media
10 fashions afield
4 stratum
12 mnemsoyne
5 undoubtedly