I don't understand.
99% of my betting is on the top 3 of my rated animals as well, yet I have plenty of bets.
Are you saying that your top 3 animals are always over what the bookies are giving?
Unless your system is directly linked to the bookmakers prices, this is not possible.
I set my markets using the form guide.
And I do it a day before the race is run.
You obviously must be doing it 3 minutes before race time.

You nailed it Moeee,I rarely place a bet until the horses are going into the barriers.

I would never frame a market against pre-post odds.

Then again I'm retired and can afford myself this luxury.

The market I do frame is around 120% it keeps me in the reality zone.In other words I get the prices I expect to get,,as against prices I hope to get.

There are downsides to looking for that standout classy nag, which include for me a).not too many bets availalble and b). I often end up on the favourite. The big upside is an extremely high SR and therefore the ability to take fairly low odds and still smile.[/QUOTE]

Yup,TWOBETS,,,yesterday I had one bet at Geelong,it sometimes works out that way.Other days over two meetings I may have half a dozen bets.

Recently I was trawling through the Gambling Forum and came across this contribution from our friend Wesmip.

QUOTE=wesmip1]










The penny has finally dropped.... "Value" simply means finding better odds...

I was labouring under the misapprehension that "Value" involved calculating ridiculous prices around your selections and hoping that the tooth fairy comes to the party and gives you $10 against the $2 being offered to the mugs.

Whew,silly me,,,I thought people were setting 80% markets around their selections when all the time they were happy to grab $2.10 instead of meekly accepting a lousy $2.

Turns out I have been a "value" punter for years.

It's certainly true that in real world markets it's possible to "do better" and with todays technology at our fingertips we can squeeze a few more drops out of the lemon.Long live value!!!!

Has any one considered the idea of using their rated prices set at 120%, if the price on offer is 40% greater than the rated price.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan in post 44 I mentioned calculating my market at 120%.My thinking behind this is that it places me in the real world with regard to prices on offer,plus if my top rated horse is not the markets top rated horse then I may get some realistic "overs",,Not wishful thinking overs ,but maybe a $ here and there.

Some of you guys still don't get it.

VALUE always was, and always will be, getting more for your money than what it is Truly worth.
Every horse has a chance of winning a race.It is up to yourself to find out what the chance is.As long as you get over that price, then your books will end up in the black.
The thing is, you don't even need to know what that price is.If your books are showing a profit, you are getting it.
It's just much more plain to see when you have a set of prices in front of you, carefully worked out.

A more simple way would be to just get the first 3 Favourites in a race.
Add up their percentage prices offered by the Bookies, and reframe those 3 horses to that percentage using your own methods.
Then you will find the VALUE runner for yourself.

BAGHWAN..120%?..No Good....Just remember,whatever you do,if it won't work on roulette,then it won't work on the horses.

Quote Moeee

"The thing is, you don't even need to know what that price is.If your books are showing a profit, you are getting it".

If your books are in the black you are simply an astute punter.

The essence of value punting is being at the racetrack where bookmakers are standing next to each other and competing against each other in real time.

Fluctuating TAB prices are impossible to predict,and as you say Moee you actually do all of your calculations the day before the races.

Perhaps you would like to give us a few examples and tips to demonstrate your methods??

syllabus23. asks:
"Perhaps you would like to give us a few examples and tips to demonstrate your methods??"


Ah, when the theorist can't seem to unscramble the simple omelette they have created, so that we brainless plebes can understand what the hell they are talking about and are finally asked to do a few 'examples please', so we can get past the clear as mud stage.

I like this bit. Awaiting with baited breath :-))

Go for it moeee, whip out a few working examples to enlighten everyone, you do the prices the day before.

There have been several weighty books written on the subject of value, in betting. As far as I am aware no one has come up with a magic formula which gives a definitive method of establishing what value is, or how to apply value in your day to day betting. There are plenty of opinions and maybe, but no definitive equation. So, if finding value is such an intangible process, does it really matter? Can it or should it be completely ignored? What do these madmen who constantly trumpet the horn of value really mean and are they involved in the biggest confidence trick since speed figures were published?

The Value Camp, hold the following argument to be true.

A horse that has a greater pay out odds than it’s chance odds is value. If a horse has a 20% chance of winning (4/1) and is available at odds of 6/1 (14%) represents value of +6%.

So, over a series of a 100 bets a punter can expect to be up around 6% of the stakes he has invested, or the money he’s turned over.

Some punters mistakenly believe that a winner is a winner no matter what price you strike your bet at. This of course is true, on a bet by bet basis, but not right when you look at the bigger picture over a series of bets.

If the same horse with a 20% chance of winning (4/1) was only available at 7/2 (22%), then value is –2%. Even though the horse might win, over a long series of such bets the punter can expect to be out of pocket to the tune of –2%.

This is all well and good but when and if you want to start looking for value, you have to come up with a method that establishes what price (or chance) a horse should be. This involves making your own tissue from the information that is available to you and then comparing the price you think the horse should be to what is on offer. And then having the confidence in your opinions to bet accordingly.

Well, that’s the general idea. Meanwhile back in the real world, us mortals have to work out how to apply all of these grand theories in our day to day betting. How can you know that your horse trading at 4/1 is really a 7/2 chance? This is the start and the crux of the problem with value punting.

Many normal happy punters have devolved from a Lucky15 and a couple of pints on a Saturday afternoon with their mates, into a lonely wannabe navel contemplating statistician or even worse an ************ on horses. And when it all ends in tears they blame their own lack of ability and clueless approach on, the inaccuracy and lack of proper information and statistics. I can’t remember the number of times I’ve heard a hapless value ************ cry .. ‘If only I’d known that the going was good to firm, good in places and not good, good to firm in places. All of this would never have happened and we’d still have the house.’

On every gambling internet forum in the world there are no losing punters, except myself occasionally and one or two others who don’t immediately spring to mind. Yet we all know that there are very few people who can win consistently and even fewer who can make the game pay enough for it to have a positive impact on their lives. If everyone is getting value then why isn’t everyone winning? Gambling and honesty don’t sit too well together and getting proper advise is almost impossible. Any decent advise that is out there is lost in a sea of meaningless information and half ********** opinions from serial losers phishing for snippets of information.

I personally stake between $5 and $15 on every selection that I make, depending on how confident I feel at any particular time. Varying the stake in line with my own comfort zone, not depending on what notion of value I think I have. Changes in the going, a couple of losing days or a general feeling on uneasiness based on break even results can limit my stakes. In the same way that settled going, a good series of winners can see me increase the size of my stake.

Ignoring value completely and not falling under it’s spell, allows me to concentrate on looking for winners. That value camp will argue that if you win more than you lose, then you are a value punter. This is of course true, but the methods by which the winners were found were not based on looking for value. If you can find winners then the value is sure to follow, the same cannot be said of the opposite.