Enjoying your punting Baco. Definitely on the right track as practically all of us are never going to get rich at this game.

Baco wrote:
"A horse that has a greater pay out odds than it’s chance odds is value. If a horse has a 20% chance of winning (4/1) and is available at odds of 6/1 (14%) represents value of +6%".

And that's nailing the 'value' problem. Unlike Casino games when all the variables are known and odds can be precisely worked out because all variables are known, we the punter are dealing with a few known variables and 647 unknown variables ['is the horse going to have a 2kg dump before he starts and wreck my weight calculations?']. 'True odds' are a myth and a bit like trying to work out our odds of making our 80th. birthday. Too many unknown variables!

Value is certainly no myth, but working it out before a race is an individual concern and estimation from the few facts we are lucky enough to know. Sometimes we will get it approx. right but mostly we won't. The easy way to work out if we have been getting value is to work out our average winning SR and compare it to our average collect. A 5/1 SR for a punter requires a better than 5/1 average collect. If we are not getting it we are losing and obviously our ideas about bet value ain't quite up to scratch are they? That's practically all of us.

http://www.punters-paradise.com/for...x.php/t-41.html

Nice to see Helen Demidenko has inspired someone.

I've always thought the Pom's use of the word "tissue" in this context to be a bit odd. Where did it come from? Does it imply that the "tissue" should be used to wipe something afterwards?

Interesting post though, whoever is responsible.

PS: Nice use of TurnItIn, JFC
http://www.turnitin.com/static/home.html

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

TurnitIn? Never heard of it before, Merely:

http://www.google.com.au/search?q=l...lient=firefox-a

Just my 2 cents worth on value, e.g. Saturday Perth R3-3 Rosskaen, just b4 the jump is showing $5.40c for the win and $2.90c for the place, now as I see it @4.40-1 for the win = 1/3 odds a place (6 runners) so the place is worth 1.45-1, so @ 1.90 looks like ************ good value to me, just the way I see things?

Party,
I think it far easier to ascertain value for the place than for the win. If you can get 1/3 win odds or better consistently, your getting your fair share of value.

Question is, how do you nail the place odds down, as usually they fluctuate wildly in the last couple of minutes, even after the jump?

Lol, Lol :-)) Anyway, I think his heart is in the right place. At least he admits to losing [unlike the rest of us].

I like the Ian Davies reply:

"First off, IMO, there are essentially two types of punter -

1. The guy who likes to ''Play God'' and say: ''this one will win so I'm backing it no matter what the price is, or ''this one will get beat so I'm laying it no matter what the price is.'' Colourful characters, but I never knew anyone with an MO like this who made a profit long-term.

2. The guy who attempts to define value by compiling his own tissue (something I think everyone should do at least once in their lives, if only as a one-off academic exercise). This could be to the usual bookies' margin of 1.5%-2% a runner, but more usually it is to 100%, or even 90% or lower - a backer's book.

Basically anything trading at more than its tissue price is a value bet and, the bigger the price is relation to the tissue, the bigger the BACK bet. Conversely, the shorter the price in relation to its tissue the bigger the LAY bet. However, there is a caveat to that and one which follows along the lines of making sure you don't be arrogant enough to ''Play God.''

Don't kid yourself you can perpetually outperform the efficiency of the market by much because if something looks too good to be true, that's because it usually is. It's a bit like what Sky Masterson's dad* told him in Damon Runyon's Guys And Dolls, but a more contemporary explanation comes courtesy of RHIG who, in the chatroom the other day, stated words to the effect that the betting market is so efficient that it's rare to be able to out analyze it by much.

For example (my example, not his), if you have a horse trained by, say, Mick Easterby on your tissue at 8/1 for some minor handicap, at some unconsidered night meeting during Royal Ascot week or something similar, and it opens at 6/1 and is punted into 7/2, it's probably not a good idea to lay the bollocks off it because you had it in at 8s on your purely academic tissue. Unless you're sleeping with the horse in question, there is always someone out there who knows more about its chances than you do, Don't ever forget that and always be prepared to amend your tissue if there's money - or a distinct lack of it - for horses from certain yards".

With this thread getting so convoluted I'm not sure how much of Sy...'s questions have been fielded.

But here's my take.

Frame your market to 100%. A 20% premium ain't around these days.

If you can't get value about your top picks, even on Betfair, then offer (bad value) lays on your bottom picks.

Try to arrange it so you mainly end up green on your pets and red on your pests.

But don't back below best tote and don't lay too much higher than median tote.

If this doesn't work for you, then try to improve your ratings.

"Tissue" . That what the new Gunns mill in Tas. will be producing the pulp for [and disposable nappies], not quality enough for paper as it will be eucalyptus wood mostly used, pulped at 'World's best practice' standards [World Bank best practice, ie: best 3rd. world standards].

Crash, yes of course so that's always the issue, your finger has to be on the button, but as close as I can get, then bet best tote for the place this usually gets it, though not always but sometimes greater so overall it's close to what I want. The other angle is fixed odds of course, not my cuppa, but I can see how some would prefer it i.e. if you can't get overs (for the place fixed) then just ride that one out , rounda bouts and swings an all that. I had a good day on Sat 3 out of 4 the other one? well, I have to admit I fell for the "kid" on Star Escort, burned up early given no chance. Just to rub it in though the other 3 place bets all won! ---T!