matter of interest I just arrived at other house and had two horses brilliantes and dahara prize in race 5 at ipswich. sometimes my points wont co-incide with the exact listed list that you might get from somewhere else.

recall that i said i credited some races of higher prizemoney with a listed B classification due to the low number of listed races in certain areas e.g. brisbane and adelaide I credit the $41,000 race in Adelaide as a listed b which gives two points for winning and 1 for placing.

Dahara Prize was 3rd to Sienna's Pride in a $100,000 race in Townsville two year old in June and I put it in. Paid $14.00 today There is some worth in noting the higher prizemoney races as being sought after results for trainers.
The simplicity of throwing it into a database throws it up on days like this.

In the case of some of the perth cup horses Lambton Castle was showing good form about a year ago and hastnt delivered in recent times and Hadebeclorka is similar. I always throw a saver on the renegade ratings.

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laurie

Nice win at Townsville, topsy99!
A database like the one you describe will always be more complete than using RacingandSports Group/Listed summaries. The R&S info seems to go back to only 2007, so that leaves a big hole. And I don't add in higher prizemoney non-black type races, as you do. So our figures will not match - yours will be more accurate. I really only tried using the R&S material to see how it went as an approximation of your process.
I will stick to numbers 2,10,14 in the Perth Cup out of interest - 10 for a place.
Here's hoping.
Jackact

ref data base. i use gwbasic an old programming language used to come out with msdos. rarely used these days but is useful. i save the results from mondays australian and search my points with a small self adding program by putting in the name and it auto adds up the points.


but back to the perth cup.
doing traditional judgment which failed me but the weights but not the barriers favour some. on barriers and weights and points.
largo lad barrier 19 11 points weight ok lords ransom 12 points barrier (2) and down 3.5 kgs. gondorff barrier 6 8 points and down massive 5.5kgs (my pick) hadebeclorka 4 points down 6kgs barrier 20. new spice 15 points barrier 4 down 3 kgs.
so with that lords ransom gondorff (looks real good) 8 points new spice 15 points. (but have been wrong before)

good luck slight mention for star encounter 14 points but not sure of her class in this race.

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laurie

how close was that. $12 odd for a place was nearly a 50/1 shot.
loves it wet.
Court and royal ida were top numbers.

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laurie

generally points went well. hard to catch was 35 points just missed.
perth cup was a good result but no value in it.
royal ida was good result. ridden by a genius.
court's price lost something when the favorite scratched at the barrier.
Ma Ma Machine had five points ascot , spinney usual honest race 30 points 3rd, hairy 7 points almohad was brilliant ride and was down 3kgs on winning form.

all in all some strikes and a bit of bad luck. thought i was home on airways in the last at flemington only to be beaten by a bolter.



havent scored todays yet.

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laurie

Hello Topsy,

Thanks for your posts as it helps confirm points scored etc and also what your thoughts were. It isn't a press the button and find a selection method but does make you think. If only there was a way to be more often correct in the thinking?

Happy New Year
Twodogs

Evening Topsy,

Do you generally work with a minimum number of points before you get too interested in a horse?

Black type races can have many top chances and even looking for value as per your calculation can still leave it a tough race do you have a general rule of thumb you work with?

Recent dist ability could eliminate some as would historic dist ability along with its liking for the going. Odd day back ups going by a reference I saw by you to fitness patterns (Blakemore)

Cheers
Twodogs

Another good result at Sandown today Topsy!

See attachment

Cheers
Twodogs

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i've just been to northwest tasmania for a few days camping so missed sandown. you wouldnt believe i backed rathshallagh last start. got beaten by 18 lengths but was place in queensland derby group 1 2008 and 13 points was the score. (noticed G Boss rode it) the question regarding minimum number of points ref; perth cup. i favour the top points scores.
Ref doing some work on the race. I do it for the interest . I cant make selections from the paper as it is boring as there is no end of races .
The point systems put some personality into the selections and i like the idea of trainers targeting wins. e.g. rathshallagh I am sure would not have gone without some backing. Rathsahallagh also placed at group 2 level at Trentham. Methods like this limit my activities to listed horses so stops the go, go, go danger of racing.
I hope you had something on rathshallagh.

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laurie

in the case of rathshallagh it is a mistake to try to pick the eyes out of the races. a winner at 37/1 pays for a lot of sins and by trying to exact your selections might cause short odds and also miss a lot of winners.

That's experience talking.

A group 1 placegetter at 37/1 is a bit inviting the fact that its form was poor is a test of faith. we have been discussing this test of faith. most of us punters cant go a few races wthout a winner and that is our downfall.

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laurie