Thanks Mad. I've gotten some good luck as of late. It's about time! LOL! Rothes.... did have a terrible game, but they just barely lost, so be positive. I think NE is a little weaker than last year and Pitt is on the upswing. That game did scare me when I really started to think hard about it, but I still thought that the Steelers were the side. My 49'ers are suddenly 2-1 against the spread and play St. Louis agaain this weekend at Mexico City. I'll have to see if it's a natural grass surface. I love the Niner's if it is. Week 4 lies ahead.

Hey Toga,

Funny old weekend for me, some good picks and some silly ones. Hey but that's the cookie crumblin and all that. Was a great weekend footy wise, woulda' loved to see the Steelers vs Pats game but of course we didn't get it over here. Bengals are going well, Chargers snapped out of their slump, home dogs continuing on a roll and the season has just begun.

Today I noticed the early lines for next week and there are some interesting selections to be made. Oakland -3 at home vs Dallas, Atlanta -5.5 vs Minnesota and the Chargers +5 vs the Pats. Of course if ever the Bengals were going to thump someone at home it would be this week against Houston. Titans at home +6.5 vs the Colts has also grabbed my attention. Colts defence is flying but the offence is only firing on three cylinders. Risky, you never know if they will fire up but i might look into this one a bit more.

Before i go i must mention SBR, American based Mr mgmt so take it easy Moderator, but they have a new forum full of NFL discussion etc and a competion running at the moment called, wait for it:
Beat the P-r-i-c-k, without the hyphens of course, for NFL tipping. Worth a look.

__________________
I like Bing Lee.

Well guys, I vote myself "****er" of the week after going 0-4 with my picks. Some very strange turn arounds, especially on defense. What really got me in the 3 TV games was that my bets KC, NO and NYG all looked like they showed up for a practice. The other sides were fired up and ready to play. In all 3 I was gone in the first 5 minutes. Very depressing weekend but as MAD has said, "bring on next week".

Quick notes - the Jets have lost their qb and Vinny is back. bye bye Jets. Fox TV games are a double header STL-NYG and Dallas-Oak. Home field advantage is sure looking big this year. The teams that outrushed the other won 11 of the 14 games. Pit-Ne were tied at 79 each. SF lost and Cinci won with the 5 interceptions.

Notes from games
Oak-phil - Oakland ran 22 times for +21 yards. Looks like its live or die with the pass for them. Phil won dispite losing two turnovers. Philly run defense looks good giving only 80 yds in last 2 games.

Tenn - Stl - even stats

Cinci - Chi - 5 interceptions for Cinci. Now have +14 t/o rate and 18 in 3 games. Can they win without that? Chicago defense still putting up a good performance.

NO-Min - 4 t/o against the Saints. Minnesota allowed 7 sacks . Hard to rate NO because of all the emotional stuff. The Vikings sure were fired up but still a mediocre lot.

Car-Mia - Carolina had a chance to tie it but got intercepted in the last minute. Carolina only had 61 yds rushing. Miami had +2 t/o. Miami now 43-8 at home in August/sept. Looks like their offensive strength is rushing and their overall strength is defense.

Jax-NYJ -Ny Jets lost their qb and only had 168 yds total offense. Jax and Cinci only teams at 3-0 on spread.

Cle- Indy - Indy defense won again and had 4 more sacks.Indy offense put up their best numbers of the year but against a very bad Clevland defense. Indy hasn't allowed a sack this year so it's a mystery to me why they can't score.

TB-GB Gb played better but gave TB 3 interceptions. Missed conversion was the difference. TB had 156 yds rushing. My figures have the Bucs as #1 defensive team

Sea-ARi. Arizona still can't convert their chances into TD's. 12 points all on field goals. Seattle put up big offensive numbers again. 163 yds rushing. 2 t/o also helped

NE-Pitt. The numbers seem to indicate that the Pat's outplayed Pitt by much more than the score 425 yds to 269 total offense. Pitt got 2 more t/o's and very strange for them to lose with a + t/o. NE had 346 yds passing but still not rushing real well.

Dall - SF The stats look as even as the scoreline

Atl-Buff Very strange game according to the stats. Must have been brutal in the trenches. ATlanta rushed for 236 and passed for 167 while the Bills rushed for 172 and wait for it - passed for 36. Atlanta also had 4 sacks. Not very often that you get rushing at twice the rate of passing. Wasn't snowing was it?

NYG - SD. I watched this game. Going into it the Giants had just about the best rush defense. The Chargers just charged right through them for 268 yards. Tomlinson was unstoppable. The Giants passe for 338 yds which made the stats look close butttt.

KC-Denv Same story here as the NYG-SD game. Denver just ran straight through the Chiefs line for 221 yds

Thanks for the synopsis Karla, i'd be lost without it. Don't get enough games on TV, might look into getting one of those massive satellite dishes that picks up every station known to mankind.

Anyway, was looking at betting markets and see Jacksonville opened at -3, quickly out to -4. Must have been some big money coming in at -3. Must admit at -4 still looks and attrctive proposition at home vs the Broncos. Might be another one worthy of some investigation. Also Seattle +2 on the road to Washington is intiguing, however i have no basis for saying that other than i don't rate Washington very highly.

__________________
I like Bing Lee.

How did i miss this one...LOL.

Eagles +2 on the road to Chiefs. Opened at +3, some money came for it i assume after the abismal performance of KC last week.

__________________
I like Bing Lee.

Hi Mad

The line on Philly maybe because McNab (QB) was listed as doubtful. I heard now (11 am Sydney) that he is now probable. The line has come into 1.5 at most places.

Stan James has it at 2.5 ($1.91). Stan James seems to be going their own way on NFL this year. They are offering $1.91 but as opposed to most bookies instead of moving the price (ie 1.92 to 1.87) they are moving the line. Not sure if they actually know how imprtant the difference is between 2.5 and 3 etc.

Better for us. Right now they have 9 of their lines .5 point different then everyone else. Anyway could be worth keeping an eye on them.

Hi - guys

I'll go slow this weekend as I do like a lot of the away dogs but they aren't winning. Just 2 picks and need to improve my 3-7 record.

Green Bay +8 bt Carolina.
The struggling Packers don't lose 4 in a row often. They played well against TB and went within a whisker of a tie. Carolina haven't exactly been world beaters either at 1-2. The Packers have a -5 t/o ratio which has been their main problem. THe defenses are better than the offenses for both teams. I expect a close defensive game with Carolina not risking too much and that should give the "pack" a chance to cover the 8 points.

Arizona - San Francisco over 43.
The NFL is on show in Mexico and both these teams are very poor defensively especially against the pass. SF scored over 28 in two of their games and have a good passing stats. THe 49ers have averaged 38 points against Arizona on the road in their last 3 starts. Arizona have allowed an average of 40 points in their 2 road games. I expect Arizona to get the ball to their speedster Johnson and to have worked on their red zone offense. Hopefully both teams will want to put on a spectacular passing show for the Mexicans and go over the total.

Haven't had any time to study the NFL this week, what with all the horse racing going on in every continent imaginable. But I've been lucky this weekend so far so hopefully it carries over into football. Karla, great theory about the Mexico Bowl! Only makes sense that they will let loose.


Week 3
Detroit +6-(7?) ***
St L +3 ***
Minn +6 **
SD +5- **

Hey guys and gals,

Here is a little play i picked up from someone else.
Jets +7 $3.76
Vikings +6 $3.40

Only need one to get up = $$$$$$

Other plays i am considering,
Giants
Eagles
Seahawks
Raiders
Jags

Homedog = Titans

Hopefully a better weekend than last.

__________________
I like Bing Lee.

Well there you go, the folly of listening to tips from others displayed there.

Homedog system let me down, well i suppose it served me well the last couple of weeks so it was due a down week. Was always a risk against the Colts but thought +7 points at home might be good enough against an offence not firing on all cylinders. Colts would have to be worthy Superbowl favourites.

Jags very disappointing but i think the Broncos are a good team and are playing well so i suppose there is no shame in that. Other selections were OK, Seahawks went close and a couple of winners as well. Another so-so week for me.

Some nice calls Toga and Karla, especially Lions and Chargers. See ya all again next week - some interesting games i spy at this early stage.

__________________
I like Bing Lee.